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This season's Blues are sliding to a level St. Louis hasn't seen in quite some time

Feb. 5, 2023
This season's Blues are sliding to a level St. Louis hasn't seen in quite some time

In riding a roller coaster of hot streaks and cold spells, of porous defense and poor injury luck, the Blues have landed in the bottom quarter of teams at the All-Star break. They are one of eight NHL teams that is under .500, behind rebuilding franchises such as Detroit, Ottawa and Philadelphia. Their minus-29 goal differential is seventh-worst in the league.

It has not been the performance anyone in St. Louis anticipated at the beginning of the season, when playoff aspirations were reasonable and contending status arguable. But with the team at 23-25-3, it’s worth a look at how this disappointing season stacks up given more historical context.

With a .480 points percentage, this year’s Blues are on pace for the worst record since the 2005-06 team finished with just 57 points in 82 games. That team finished at the bottom of the NHL standings and the Blues selected Erik Johnson with the No. 1 pick in 2006. The 2005-06 season snapped a streak of 25 consecutive playoff appearances for the Blues.

In the last 34 seasons , this year would be only the second time the club finished with a points percentage of .480 or below.

It’s a shock for a franchise that had been one of the league’s most stable and consistent since 2011, making the playoffs 10 out of 11 years. That, of course, includes winning the Stanley Cup in 2019. Entering the season, the Blues were the best team in the Western Conference since 2011, and the top five league-wide was a list of annual contenders: Pittsburgh, Boston, Washington and Tampa Bay.

The Blues aren’t used to missing the playoffs, let alone in a fashion that places them in the bottom quartile of the league. The last time the Blues were this bad, current rookie forward Jake Neighbours was four years old.

It also could mean the Blues are headed toward a top 10 draft pick, which the franchise hasn’t had since it selected Alex Pietrangelo with the fourth pick in 2008. Overall, St. Louis has picked in the top 10 just twice since 1990.

Perhaps you’re an optimist who believes the Blues can turn around their season and sneak into the Western Conference playoffs. Maybe once they have Ryan O’Reilly, Pavel Buchnevich, Torey Krug, Vladimir Tarasenko, Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou all in the lineup for the first time since Dec. 19 that they’ll be better. Or that the goaltending duo of Jordan Binnington and Thomas Greiss can find an uptick that can lead to more points in the standings.

Typically, the 95-point mark is used as an unofficial cutoff for making the playoffs. Some years, such as last season when Nashville had 97 points, the cutoff is higher. Some years, such as in 2018-19 when Colorado was the second wild-card qualifier with 90 points, it’s lower.

Right now, the projected cutoff is about 97 points, as the Avalanche are on pace for 97.4 points this season as the second wild card in the Western Conference.

If the Blues are to reach 97 points, they’ll need 48 points in the final 31 games, which equates to a 127-point pace when applied to a full 82-game season. But we’ve seen the Blues do this before, right? The 2019 Cup run often is noted for its worst to first finish, and that was just four years ago.

Here’s the thing: even the 2019 team never pulled off a run like that.

The best 31-game stretch that the Cup team ripped off was a 22-6-3 run from Jan. 23 to April 1. That’s 47 points in 31 games, which still would likely not be enough for this year’s Blues.

The 2013-14 season is the last time the Blues have had a 31-game stretch with at least 48 points.

The Blues have allowed 3.61 goals per game, which is somehow only the seventh-worst mark in the league this season, but would be the franchise’s worst mark in 35 years.

In 1987-88, during the run-and-gun era of the NHL, the Blues allowed 3.68 goals per game. Also that year: Mario Lemieux had 70 goals and 98 assists, plus Wayne Gretzky had 40 goals and 109 assists. So it’s safe to say scoring was up four decades ago, and perhaps the league is entering another age of heightened scoring across the league.

Other defensive items: the 31.9 shots allowed per game would be the most since 1993-94, and the 76.2% penalty-killing success rate would be the worst since 1984-85 despite two months of steady progress while shorthanded.

According to public expected goals models, this year’s Blues defense would be the worst since both MoneyPuck (2.76 expected goals against per 60 minutes of five on five this year) and Natural Stat Trick (2.81) began tracking data in 2008.


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