The 2023 trading deadline has been one full of blockbuster moves. None measure up to the one the San Jose Sharks and New Jersey Devils pulled off on Sunday night.
This trade will singlehandedly change the course of both teams' directions for years to come. Let's get right to breaking down the trade for both sides.
Ignore all of the other players included in this trade, who were added purely to even out the number of players exchanged. This is all about Timo Meier.
Meier is a complete player. Primarily, he is a goal scorer. The Swiss winger ranks 16th among all NHL forwards by goals scored (66) since 2021-22.
As InStat's map shows, Meier is a threat to score from anywhere in the offensive zone.
From distance, Meier beats goaltenders both from a quick catch-and-release shot or by loading up his legs and slinging it past goaltenders.
He is a bulky 220 pounds for his 6'1" frame and he uses it well. On the rush, Meier is a great skater. Once he adds the size, defenders have a tough time stopping him. He lowers his shoulder and drives towards the net. From there, his silky hands are enough to beat the goaltender from in-tight. Meier also uses the size and hands combination around the net front during controlled possessions in the offensive zones, getting into traffic for deflections or finding space to pop into and receive a pass for tap-ins.
Meier is a capable passer as well and that has been enough to make him a near-point-per-game player; he's tallied 128 points in 134 games since the 2021-22 season.
He is a major contributor prior to the actual goal production. He is like a freight train when carrying through the neutral zone, yet also has the stickhandling ability to move laterally with the puck and weave through bodies. With his size, he is an asset in cycling the puck along the walls. He gets into the zone following dump-ins and pressures the defenseman, forcing misplays of the puck.
The Devils are acquiring one of the 15-best wingers in the NHL, and that may be underselling him. As good as the Newark-based team was, a top-line winger was sorely missing. There is a reason general manager Tom Fitzgerald attempted to sign Johnny Gaudreau over the summer. And while he did land Ondřej Palát, the former Lightning forward has only 14 points in 27 games in New Jersey and ideally sits lower on the depth chart. If and when the Devils face the elite wing combinations owned by teams such as the Rangers, Maple Leafs, and Boston Bruins, the likes of Jesper Bratt and Yegor Sharangovich would have paled in comparison.
Whether head coach Lindy Ruff deploys Meier with Swiss friend Nico Hischier or Jack Hughes, he'll instantly become a major upgrade and the best winger on the team.
The best part for the Devils? Meier is just 26 years old and will be a restricted free agent in the summer. The two sides have not agreed to a contract extension yet and the $10M qualifying offer he is due complicates the situation, but one would imagine that the Devils don't make the deal if they aren't confident that Meier has mutual interest in staying in New Jersey. Meier is not just a major addition for a Stanley Cup run this season but should be a foundational piece of the franchise for the next five-plus years.
The Devils did give up an assortment of assets—more on that later—but the pieces they moved are more than worth it. This would be true for any team, but it's particularly true for the Devils. No key players or prospects went to San Jose. The most notable is defenseman Shakir Mukhamadullin, whom the team drafted 20th overall in 2020. While he is a good prospect, the Devils' future on defense is loaded with better options including Šimon Nemec, Luke Hughes, and Seamus Casey. His loss will not remotely affect the team's ability to build a defense for the next decade. With one of the top prospect pools in the league, the Devils can absorb the loss of the two first-round picks.
The only knock on this deal for the Devils is that the trade comes without the framework for a long-term extension to Meier completed. Until proven otherwise, there is no reason to panic about that. This is an unequivocal win for the Devils.
Grade: A
Let's first offer some sympathy to Sharks general manager Mike Grier. The first-year GM inherited a bad team with no realistic pathway to a quick turnaround. Meier might be young based on the Devils' timeline, but Meier may be on the wrong side of 30 by the time Grier has San Jose ready to contend.
And that's assuming an unlikely scenario in which Meier, set to be an unrestricted free agent in 2024, would have willingly re-signed in San Jose.
He had a top player to offer around the league but the $10M qualifying offer he will be due in the summer complicates matters. Were Meier to accept that offer, he'd be on an expensive cap hit for just one season before he could walk away for free in July 2024.
Grier had little choice but to move his team's top player in sub-optimal circumstances. He found a trading partner in New Jersey and brought various assets to his franchise.
The meaningful NHLer included is Fabian Zetterlund. The 23-year-old winger has accumulated nine goals and 19 assists in 59 NHL games since 2021-22. Those are solid numbers for a player who has averaged roughly 13 minutes of ice time per game. But the Swede's forte is on the defensive side of the puck. He's a cerebral player who makes all of the right decisions in the neutral and defensive zones. Evolving Hockey's model puts him in the 70th percentile by his defensive impact this season. He'll have a nice career as a bottom-six winger.
Andreas Johnsson, also included in the deal, has played 248 NHL games but fell out of favor this season. The Devils placed him on waivers to start the season and, upon clearing, sent him down to the AHL. He has a history of bottom-six capability but, at 28 years old and an unrestricted free agent in July, he and his $3.4M cap hit were likely included as a financial consideration.
The top prospect in the deal, as previously noted, is Shakir Mukhamadullin. When the Devils drafted Mukhamadulin he was a projectable but raw prospect. He is 6'3" and a great skater in all four directions. At the time of the draft he had not shown much offensive prowess nor adequate hockey IQ. The Devils were banking on the idea that he'd figure that out with training and experience.
So far they have been correct, at least to an extent. The 21-year-old is averaging 17:23 in ice time for Salavat Yulaev of the KHL (per InStat) and has collected 25 points in 67 games. While his game has matured in some aspects the overall concerns remain. He is erratic with the puck. He doesn't process unfolding plays at a high pace. His success in arguably the world's second-best league is encouraging and the Sharks will be in position to give him a long rope when they bring him over to North America. Given his physical capabilities and the improvements made to his overall game, Mukhamadulin looks like a good bet to make the NHL at least as a third-pairing defenseman. He has the toolbox to rise higher up the depth chart, but he'll need a lot of guidance from the right coaching staff to get him there.
Scouts loved Nikita Okhotyuk a year ahead of the 2019 NHL draft. His stock cooled some but the Devils took him at the end of the second round.
Okhotyuk, 22, is a physical, hard-working defenseman. He is relentless physically. He sacrifices his body to block shots. He works hard every shift. The Russian has never fared well offensively at even the junior level, which usually is not a great sign even for a shutdown defenseman, but he does have the type of playing style to potentially buck the trend. He is calm, even if unimpressive, with the puck. The Devils gave him 15 NHL games over the past two seasons and the Sharks may choose to give him an NHL role immediately. Okhotyuk has a chance to become a depth defenseman who plays a tough game, kill penalty minutes, and earns the respect of his teammates.
The Sharks also receive a 2023 first-round pick and a conditional 2024 second-round pick; if the Devils make the Eastern Conference Final in either 2023 or 2024 then the draft pick will become the Devils' 2024 first-round pick.
It seems like Grier targeted quantity over quality in this trade. When one looks back at similar types of trades teams often land a top prospect. The Blue Jackets received Adam Boqvist plus two first-round picks in return for Seth Jones. The Canadiens milked Nick Suzuki from Vegas in the Max Pacioretty trade. That the Sharks move out a borderline elite NHL forward and don't receive so much as a top-100 NHL prospect in return is a major disappointment.
Statistically, the odds that the Devils do make the Eastern Conference Final aren't great, and if they do the Sharks will still land two very late first-round picks. Unless San Jose's scouting staff absolutely nails the draft, it looks very possible that Sharks do not come away with a single difference-maker from this trade.
The mess Grier inherited is in no way his fault, and Meier's contract situation didn't help matters, but his first major endeavor in charge of the Sharks leaves a lot to be desired.
Grade: C-
