Is anyone else just a little tired of hearing about doom and gloom and an impending apocalypse? Its been hard to avoid with media focus on the pandemic, its impact on the economy, and the tsunami of hardship, depression and anxiety swirling across the nation. Were bombarded with daily images of bankrupt, dismal malls and empty big box retail sites repurposed into mass testing sites and now mass vaccination centers.

Even in conversations with friends and family, the repetition of comments about endless Zoom calls and despair about indistinguishable days blending together can accumulate into a sort of reinforcement of a dystopian view of life. After the last 13 months, apocalypse, collapse and chaos feel normal, right?

Except were forgetting some amazing facts.

Common mythologies

Lets explore a long-held scenario in the fresh light of recent data. In agriculture and agtech ecosystems, nearly everyone has heard the prediction that the global population would reach 9 billion by 2050. It is referenced in virtually every pitch deck, noted in every presentation, discussed at every conference (disclosure: I admit to it too). The population growth scenario translates into global food demands, with less arable land and clean water, increasing climate change and rapidly expanding diseases. Somethings got to change and its up to us to act.

This scenario has been used so many times it has taken on a veneer of immutability. And in fairness, it has been used to stimulate investments and innovation in agtech, biotechnology, genetics and animal health, all with the intent of creating alternative outcomes. Thats positive, leading to innovation and novel approaches, many of which are still in development. No apologies for that.

But the reality of actual data is a little less bleak than the original projections. The global fertility rate, for example, is on a steady decline, dropping from women having an average of 4.7 births in 1950 to 2.4 in 2017. When the rate dips below 2.1, the size of the population starts to fall as is already happening in dozens of nations. A recent study from the University of Washington published in The Lancet predicts the rate will cross 2.0 in about 10 years and reach 1.7 by 2100. This does not lower the urgency to innovate but does describe the difficulty in complex modeling over longer periods of time. Error bars get really big, really quickly.

Efficiency: Can it go global?

Another facet of the scenario looks at food production, where we can find truly amazing performance. Consider row crops. The USDA, which has been tracking production since about 1870, shows generally stagnant production from the first measurement until about 1930. Since then, the trendline looks like the proverbial hockey stick.

My colleague Mike Rohlfsen used to work his family farms corn harvest in Minnesota as a boy. He recalls his grandfather would be ecstatic to count 100 bushels an acre. Those same acres now can produce more than double that amount. Yield trendlines for soybeans, wheat, rice and other major row crops show the same near-double increases.

Dr. Frank Mitloehner, professor in Department of Animal Science at the University of California, Davis, gives a similar story in the dairy industry. In the 1950s, the US had 25 million cows. Today, there are 9 million cows and they produce 60 percent more milk. More milk, and roughly a third of the carbon footprint of dairy industry of the 1950s.

If the rest of the world could match these efficiencies, wed be swimming in milk and grain. He notes these production levels could be achieved with the infrastructure of a veterinary system, better feeding, better genetics, better reproduction rates. Hes quick to say hes not talking about exporting our Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFO) throughout the world, but applying basic vaccinations, treatment of parasites and improved nutrition.

Expand your gaze a bit more and you will find incredible efficiencies across an array of categories, including:

This list doesnt even address the nascent advances using genetics in animal health, the microbiome and soil health. It also doesnt begin to tally the incredible advances technology has accomplished in a short few years in other areas like production of a human mRNA vaccine in record time. (Stay tuned for Part 2 of Dont Ever Short Human Ingenuity to learn more about how basic research discoveries long ago and very close to home had a dramatic impact on the mRNA vaccines and even my companys RNA-interference biopesticides).

Not perfect, but not dystopia either

Now I am not saying that all is right with the world. Not by any stretch.

Those global projections raised awareness and prompted actions in the scientific and agricultural communities exactly as they were designed to do. And plenty of work remains to address environmental, water, energy and climate challenges, not to mention complex issues in food security, disease surveillance, biodiversity and human and animal health. These all feed into larger universal issues of equity, justice and human rights.

Yes, theres work to do. But we have the means to solve our problems, and thats exactly what agtech and animal health innovators should do. Thats the purpose behind my work: demonstrating that science and technology advances will get us greater efficiency and productivity, leading to a cleaner, greener, healthier world.

Thats where Im placing my chips. You may not agree; you may prefer to lean into doom hedges. But at least heed one dictum: Never bet against human ingenuity. Never short the potential to solve it if we choose.