The 2024-25 NHL season is still six weeks in the distance but the betting market is pretty much settled by now, so we have a decent idea of where expectations sit ahead of the new campaign. 

And, judging by the odds, perhaps no race is expected to be more dramatic than the hunt for the Calder Trophy, which is handed to the league’s Rookie of the Year. 

This could be the deepest rookie class the NHL has seen in more than a decade and the Calder odds certainly reflect that notion. There are currently six players with odds in the single-digits as we barrel toward September. That’s extraordinary. 

Matvei Michkov, the No. 7 overall pick in the 2023 NHL Draft, is the current favorite at +350 at BetMGM. There was plenty of speculation about when (if ever) the Russian phenom would make the move from Russia, but he ended all that talk this summer and is coming to Philadelphia after posting 41 points in 47 games with Sochi in the KHL. 

In most seasons, a prospect of Michkov’s caliber would be a runaway favorite in this market. But the same could be said of San Jose’s Macklin Celebrini, the much-hyped No. 1 overall pick from this summer’s draft. Instead, Celebrini is the co-second favorite alongside Logan Stankoven of Dallas, at +400 odds. 

While Celebrini was busy becoming just the fourth freshman ever to win the Hobey Baker Award last spring, Stankoven burst onto the NHL scene by posting 14 points in 24 games in the regular season and eight more in 19 playoff contests. 

There’s barely any jump from Celebrini and Stankoven to another San Jose Shark, Will Smith, and Anaheim’s Cutter Gauthier at +500. 

Smith was the No. 4 overall pick in 2023 and led all of college hockey with 71 points last season. Gauthier was selected No. 5 in 2022 and finished second in the NCAA with 65 points in 2022-23. 

But wait, don’t forget about Lane Hutson of the Montreal Canadiens at +700 odds.

Built in the mold of Quinn Hughes, the smooth-skating Hutson quieted any doubters by putting up 97 points in his two seasons at Boston University. 

What makes this market even more compelling is that there are some viable long shots in the weeds too.

Dallas’ Mavrik Bourque led the AHL in scoring last season and would be one of the favorites in most years, but there’s just no room for him at the top of the board so he’s floating at 30/1 at bet365. 

Toronto’s Easton Cowan is also a tempting long shot at 50/1 odds. Cowan tore up the OHL for 96 points in 2023-24, but he’s not a sure thing to make the Leafs out of camp, which is keeping his price from crashing. If Cowan makes the team, you’ll be thrilled to be holding this ticket. 

Another intriguing long shot is Maxim Tsyplakov of the New York Islanders. Much older than the rest of this class, the undrafted Tsyplakov, 25, finished fourth in the KHL with 31 goals and earned himself a one-year deal with the Isles. 

So now that we’ve set the stage, how about some betting strategy. 

Well, for starters I’d urge some caution with Michkov considering the price. Perhaps he makes a seamless transition to North America, but this is going to be a steep learning curve for a teenager and John Tortorella is not the most forgiving of coaches. 

Given a choice between Michkov and Celebrini, I’d go with the latter, but that doesn’t mean the No. 1 overall pick is the best bet on the board. 

For my money, that title goes to Bourque, fresh off a point-per-game campaign in the AHL, at 30/1.

BEST BET: Mavrik Bourque to win Calder Trophy (30/1, bet365)