The NFL Week 4 schedule includes seven division games with six on Sunday after the Detroit Lions pounded the Green Bay Packers 34-20 Thursday night to kick off Week 4 action. The Lions (3-1) took over first place in the NFC North, and now the most anticipated and bet game between the Miami Dolphins (4-0) and Buffalo Bills (3-1) headlines the early kickoffs on Sunday.
Pro football odds from FanDuel Sportsbook refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting.
But before the Bills-Dolphins most bet game along with the AFC North first place showdown between the Ravens (2-1) and Browns (2-1) in Cleveland, the first NFL game of the season in London will have fans and bettors ready for a full day of action starting at 9:30 a.m. ET. The Atlanta Falcons tackle the favored Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) from Wembley Stadium.
Types of bets and how to read the odds.
A pair of games involving winless teams will end with two teams falling to 0-4 when Minnesota travels to Carolina and Denver tries to recover from last week’s 70-20 embarrassment when they play Chicago at Soldier Field.
A survey of leading online sportsbooks this week has the Bears ranked as the worst team, and "the Bears entire scheme needs to be blown up," says one Las Vegas oddsmaker.
The same could be said of the Denver defense. Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is under more pressure for Denver’s defense to produce after the Dolphins destroyed the Broncos 70-20 last week. It will be tougher again this week with more key defenders out against the Bears in Chicago.
Along with my underdog pick on the Houston Texans (+3) at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have been out-gained (yards) in all three games, I also bet on the Dolphins (+3) this week against the Bills in Buffalo. These two AFC East heavyweights met in last season’s playoff game won by the Bills 34-31. The betting line is offered at leading online sportsbooks from -2.5 to -3 points, so bettors should shop, watch and wager on the best number and team of choice if they like the Bills (-2.5) or Dolphins (+3) with a pre-game spread bet.
Looking inside the numbers, Miami’s offense leads the league scoring at an unsustainable 43 points per game after last week’s burial of the Broncos, 70-20. Quarterback Tua Tagovaila has shot up the Most Valuable Player odds board as the new favorite, and the Dolphins are now the slight favorite to win the AFC East with division odds of -135 to the Bills +145 with the Patriots and Jets now longshots beyond +1500.
The Dolphins league-best 8.4 yards per play offense includes a favorable matchup at the point of attack. Miami’s 6.1 yards per rush should gouge more ground yards again against a Bills league-worst run defense allowing 5.9 yards per rush. The Bills defense has also faced three sub-par quarterbacks thus far, and none rated as strong as the three Miami has faced this season.
Dolphins rookie running back De’Von Achane was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week after scoring four total touchdowns and setting a Dolphins rookie running back record with 203 yards on 18 carries. It was the most rushing yards by an NFL player in his first or second career game since the ALF-NFL Merger in 1970.
As my sports betting colleague Sherwood adds in his weekly NFL analysis and insightful information you can bet on for all the pro football games, the Dolphins have looked like the most potent and unstoppable offense in the NFL. While this would typically be a sell-high opportunity after such a dominant performance in Week 3, the oddsmakers' haven't taken the bait. There's something special going on in Miami right now. Second-year head coach Mike McDaniel has quickly built a culture of winning, they have a legitimate defense to complement their hyper-efficient offense. Tua Tagovailoa is playing the best football of his career, and we're not stepping in front of Miami right now.
Prop bets offerered at FanDuel Sportsbook include:
If you like detailed stats, matchups and advanced analytics, check out some of the NFL game analysis at Dr. Bob Sports. Respected handicapper and statistics major Bob Stoll also passed along insight and analysis on the Dolphins-Bills matchup with a best bet on the game total, and I’ve added a bit below.
The total on this game has dipped down to 53.5 points, and Dr. Bob Sports had this as a rated play and bet Under the total at 54 or more points.
“The total would still be too high even if you rate both the Dolphins and Bills as top 3 offenses in the NFL,” Dr. Bob notes. “Dolphins defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and Bills head coach Sean McDermott are going to do everything in their power to limit explosive plays on Sunday.”
Vic Fangio commented on Dolphins safety Jevon Holland during the Sept. 29 press conference.
“He has a tremendous impact,” Fangio said. “We utilize his abilities a lot. He’s just a tremendous player, and has a chance to be a special, special player in the NFL.”
Dr. Bob’s model makes Buffalo a 1.8-point favorite, with a predicted total of 49.7 points. Teams that scored more than 50 points in their previous game go under at a 59% rate (59-41-1 Under since 1980), including 25-13 Under if their opponent is allowing an average of less than 20 points per game, as is the case here with the Bills (11.7).
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