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Dr Phillip Lowe: Reserve Bank boss's suprisingly humble beginnings - and how he nearly died twice

Feb. 7, 2023
Dr Phillip Lowe: Reserve Bank boss's suprisingly humble beginnings - and how he nearly died twice

He's the Reserve Bank boss loathed by millions of mortgage holders for his mistaken interest rate predictions, but Philip Lowe has a little-known rags-to-riches tale - and nearly died twice in one year as Governor.

The weight of the Australian economy is firmly on Dr Lowe's shoulders as he hammers mortgage holders with a ninth straight interest rate rise to halt surging inflation while trying to stop the nation being pushed into a painful recession.

Dr Lowe, who famously predicted in 2021 that interest rates would stay at record lows until 2024, hiked the official cash rate to a 10-year high of 3.35 per cent (from 3.1 per cent) on Tuesday.

The decision was made in a desperate bid to get skyrocketing inflation under control - but it could spell disaster for families struggling to make ends meet amid climbing house repayments.

Despite his high public profile, the banker is studiously private and rarely talks about his humble beginnings. 

Born to a school teacher mother and small business owner father, Dr Lowe grew up in Wagga Wagga, in NSW's Riverina region, the eldest of five children.

He went to local schools St Michael's Regional High School and Trinity Catholic College, where he excelled and was awarded dux at both. 

Dr Lowe was inspired to enter the banking industry because of his enthusiastic economics teacher Mrs King, and decided to pursue it halfway through year 12. 

However, his parents couldn't afford to send him to university so, with the help of Mrs King, succesfully applied for a RBA scholarship to UNSW, where he took night classes while doing clerical work for the RBA aged 17. 

He did so well on his first year exams the bank told him to study full-time and he graduated with first-class honours and the University Medal in 1985. 

Dr Lowe then began to work at the bank full-time, with the RBA later sending him to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology from 1987-1991, where he achieved a PhD in economics. 

While working at the RBA, Dr Lowe met his wife Jocelyn Parker - who is now employed as a Principal Analyst for the Australian Prudential Regulation authority.

The couple have three kids.

Dr Lowe worked several positions across the RBA from the late 1990s until he was appointed as its Deputy Governor in 2012.  

In May 2016, he was announced as the successor of the Glenn Stevens as the head of RBA by former Prime Minister Scott Morrison (who was then treasurer). 

Although that year marked a major career milestone for Dr Lowe, it was also fraught with major health scares.

OCTOBER 2021: 'It will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range

'The central scenario for the economy is that this condition will not be met before 2024'

AUGUST 2021: 'The board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range

'The central scenario for the economy is that this condition will not be met before 2024'

JUNE 2021: 'It will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range

'For this to occur, the labour market will need to be tight enough to generate wages growth that is materially higher than it is currently

'This is unlikely to be until 2024 at the earliest'

After walking offstage following a speech at a financial stability conference in Canada, less than 12 hours after learning from Mr Morrison about his upcoming promotion, Dr Lowe collapsed.

He was rushed to hospital fighting for life due to his carotid artery splitting and causing a blood clot in his neck.

Emergency surgery was conducted to save his life and he was placed in intensive care, until he was given the all-clear to fly back to Australia two weeks later.   

Three weeks after returning to Sydney, Dr Lowe had yet another near-death experience.

While recovering at his home, he collapsed again and his family raced him to hospital - where medics determined the aspirin he was taken to thin his blood after the stroke had eaten away at his stomach lining and caused internal bleeding. 

The bleeding was hard to stem and his family were told to brace for the worst, but after 10 days in hospital - and many blood transfusions - he eventually made a full recovering. 

'I had world-class healthcare at both St Vincent's and Ottawa Hospital. If I lived elsewhere in the world, I probably wouldn't have survived either of those things,' he told the AFR in July 2022. 

'I survived with no long-term ramifications thanks to world-class medical care.'

Today, the 61-year-old maintains a fit and health lifestyle, swimming one to two kilometres at least three times a week, cycles, and enjoys golf matches with his son on weekends.  

 

BY STEPHEN JOHNSON, ECONOMICS REPORTERS FOR DAILY MAIL AUSTRALIA 

The Reserve Bank governor looked relaxed as he stepped out of his upmarket Sydney home on Tuesday before he inflicted more pain on millions of Australians and raised interest rates for a ninth straight month.

Philip Lowe and his board lifted the official cash rate to a new 10-year high of 3.35 per cent (up from 3.1 per cent now) in a desperate bid to get skyrocketing inflation under control.

Dr Lowe, 61, famously predicted in 2021 that interest rates would stay at record lows until 2024.

But since then borrowers with an average mortgage of $600,000 have seen their repayments surge by an astonishing $12,000 a year. 

Ahead of the crunch meeting, Dr Lowe was spotted leaving his Randwick home in the city's east, where the median house price is $2.9million.

A short walk from Coogee Beach, the property with its park-style garden and wrought iron fence would conservatively be worth at least $4 million.

The married father-of-three was photographed carrying a copy of The Australian Financial Review before driving off in his late-model Volvo XC40.

Unlike millions of borrowers, the powerful banker - who is on a total remuneration package of $1,037,709 and a base salary of $890,252 - is largely protected from the worst cost of living crisis in more than three decades. 

His wife now works at the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, which sets the rules on banking lending as rates keep rising.

Dr Lowe's Reserve Bank board is widely forecast to raise the cash rate on Tuesday by 0.25 percentage points or 25 basis points.

But the Commonwealth Bank, Australia's biggest home lender, is warning borrowers to expect a possible 0.4 percentage point increase that would take the cash rate to 3.5 per cent.

Inflation is at the worst level in 32 years and there are fears this rate rise could be far from the last.

Since May, the RBA has raised interest rates eight times, with the 300 basis point increases in 2022 marking the most severe monetary policy tightening since a target cash rate was first published in 1990.

Dr Lowe has apologised to homeowners who took out home loans based on his forecast that rates wouldn't spike for several years.

'I'm certainly sorry if people listened to what we'd said and acted on what we'd said and now regret what they had done,' he told a parliamentary committee in November.

'That's regrettable and I'm sorry that happened.'

The end of the record-low 0.1 per cent cash rate means borrowers with an average, $600,000 mortgage would, this month, have seen their monthly repayments climb to $3,303, up $997 from $2,306 in early May.

Even if rates didn't go up any more after February, this borrower's annual repayments would be $11,964 higher than they were before the rate rises. 

A couple with a $1million mortgage would have seen their monthly repayments surge by $1,661 - to $5,504 from $3,843 - equating to $19,932 over a year.

That's based on a Commonwealth Bank variable rate, for a borrower with a 20 per cent deposit, climbing to 5.22 per cent in February from 2.29 per cent in May 2022 before the rate rises, on a 30-year term. 

Canstar finance expert Steve Mickenbecker said surging mortgage rates were causing the most pain in the household budget.


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