Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers (3-1) look to extend their lead in the NFC South when they head to Atlanta on Thursday night for a divisional bout with the Falcons (2-2). 

The Falcons opened as three-point favorites but have since seen that line sliced in half.

They have a 1-3 record against the spread through their first four games, while Tampa Bay is 3-1. 

The Bucs looked dominant in their home win against Philadelphia last week, putting up 33 points while holding the Eagles to just 227 yards of total offense and 16 points. 

While Mayfield and the Tampa Bay offense have been firing on all cylinders, the same can’t be said for the Falcons, who beat New Orleans in Week 4 despite not scoring an offensive touchdown. 

Bijan Robinson is battling a hamstring injury and will likely be limited in snap count Thursday (he had just seven carries last week), while Kirk Cousins has not looked anything like the player he was last season before his Achilles injury. 

Cousins has thrown for 864 yards (216 per game) to go along with four touchdowns and four interceptions. He has yet to top 241 passing yards in any contest.

Further, tight end Kyle Pitts continues to be a complete non-factor for the Falcons, failing to gain any separation on defenders and looking as if he is moving at half-speed.

Against the Saints, he had zero receptions — the first time he was held without a catch in his career. 

With a short week, and several lingering injuries, the Falcons are in a much worse position entering this game.

We will take the Buccaneers and the points Thursday night. 

THE PLAY: Buccaneers +1.5 (-110, BetMGM)

Andrew Norton handicaps the NBA, WNBA, NFL, college basketball and football, UFC and golf. During the 2022-23 NBA season, he achieved a standout 14.1% ROI, cashing 60% of his NBA spread picks and leading Tallysight in its SportsIQ metric.