Ten of the top 20 players in the world will tee it up at the American Express to kick off the PGA Tour’s California Swing.

Jon Rahm, two weeks removed from a dramatic win at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, is your standalone betting favorite at +550, but he’s got company in the single-digits in the form of Patrick Cantlay, who is +950. Scottie Scheffler (+1000), Tony Finau (+1500), and Will Zalatoris (+1900) round out the top five on the betting board.

The American Express normally doesn’t boast a field this deep so the recent data may be a bit noisy, but one thing we can feel pretty confident in is that it will take a score into the low-to-mid ’20s under par to take home the title at this unique event, which features a 54-hole cut and is played at three different courses in the Coachella Valley (PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Course, and La Quinta Country Club).

We’ve seen some longshot winners at this event recently, so even though this field is deep, it makes sense to fire a couple of darts on a couple of big prices.

Here are a few players that could pay off at long odds on the PGA Tour this week:

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After a T-21 showing at Kapalua, JT Poston now heads to California with two tournaments under his belt in the past two weeks. Poston didn’t truly flash at either event, but he finished a total of 27 under par and should head to the American Express full of confidence. Poston plays well on Pete Dye designed courses and has a pretty strong short game, so he ticks plenty of boxes, even in this field. You can expect the Georgia native to be a trendy sleeper at this price, but don’t let that deter you from backing him.

If you’re looking for a ‘horses for courses’ play in this range look no further than Adam Hadwin. The Canadian finished inside the top-six at the AmEx in four straight years (2016 through 2019) and landed T-25 here in 2022. The Canadian has put up some terrific showings at The Waste Management Phoenix Open and the Shriners at TPC Summerlin, so he seems to be a desert golf specialist who has many great memories here, including a 59 back in 2017.

We got the full Benny An experience at Kapalua as the 31-year-old hung around the leaderboard until he posted a snowman after the turn to tank any chance he had at contending for the title. Despite the quad, An was still able to finish T-12 and had he avoided disaster, could have really had a chance to win in what was a wide-open event. This field is probably too strong for An to win, but if he plays like he did for most of last week, he has a slight chance of surprising. That’s all you’re asking at this price.