Since the massive drop in air travel at the beginning of the pandemic, people have been estimating if, and when, air travel will return to pre-pandemic levels. A key piece of this has been airlines quickly adapting and messaging their safety protocols. These have included increased cleaning, revised boarding for distancing, and for a period of time the blocking of middle seats. The industry also has worked to educate fliers on how air flows and recirculates in the aircraft cabin, and some studies even have compared the air in an aircraft to that in a hospital.
As we enter what could be a busy summer travel season, the issues holding back travelers from flying are no longer related to fears of the airplane itself. Most flyers have accepted the science about the limited risk of transmission aboard a plane, and the proactive stance of the industry has removed early unfounded fears about being onboard. The issues now have to do with outside the plane, including where people can go, if they can get a rental car, and if restaurants will be able to hire enough people among other things.
As rental car companies offloaded fleets of cars once travel dropped off, the relatively quick return of leisure traffic is facing significant higher prices for cars now. On a recent trip to Florida, cars that used to be $30-$45 per day were selling for well over $100 and and SUV would run you about $200 per day. Summer air travel without reasonably priced rental cars would be tough for some families, and this may be enough of a barrier to stay closer to home to use their own vehicle. It is not clear if this inventory problem can be fixed by what could be a summer peak in July. To think that air travel could be stifled by a car shortage is really quite remarkable.
Many businesses are finding it hard to hire people right now. Some blame high government payouts, making it easier to stay home than go to work. Others blame burnout and stress from a very tough last year. Whatever the reason, restaurants and other businesses that rely on relatively low-paid labor are finding it difficult to hire up for the summer. I serve on the board of directors for Six Flags, and while all of the parks will be open this summer, a big concern is whether the company can hire enough temporary workers to keep all the parks open all hours with everything running.
This is another confusing and unintuitive situation, as there were many stories of unemployment skyrocketing after the pandemic hit. Logic might suggest that there would be people clamoring to get back to work, and yet this is is not the case right now at least. If the need is to raise wages significantly, then price elasticity will kick in as restaurants and activities become more expensive, again putting a damper on what could be a good summer air travel season.
While in general things are slowly opening up, there are still big differences in what is available to do by state and city. The District of Columbia just banned dancing at weddings for this summer, while even New York State allows this with “responsible” behavior. The CDC says it is safe to be unmasked outdoors if vaccinated and not in a crowd, and yet in some places local laws still require outdoor masking for this same audience. Golf courses around the country have different rules, and while more theme parks will be open this summer states have widely different views on attendance restrictions. Cruise ships still cannot dock at a U.S. port.
Traveling by air means going someplace to do something. While these kinds of restrictions may not stop going to see friends and family, they almost certainly will have people checking a few times before booking and maybe changing plans completely. Add in the even more uncertainty with even close-in International travel, and you can see why events having nothing to do with the airlines themselves are putting some summer travel at risk.
While not a summer issue, there is still inconsistency and uncertainty about school opening fully in Fall 2021. This can have an impact on how families decide to travel this summer, especially if traveling means quarantining and not being able to attend school for a week or more. The status of opening schools still represents a major issue for many families, so as long as there is uncertainty with bringing everyone back to school, this sends a message that things are not normal yet. This sense, even if true of course, puts apprehension into vacation planning, and that’s the main reason that school opening could affect summer air travel. Not much that airlines can do about that issue, of course.
Airlines must say diligent in their safety efforts, and continue to enforce good practices when boarding and during the flight. The message of how safe airlines are can’t stop, and yet they aren’t enough on their own. Economists call airlines an “intermediate good”, meaning that people don't fly just to be on the plane but as a means to do something else. Until all of these somethings are available again, it will affect airline travel. Too many businesses are looking at what they cannot do instead of finding ways to do things in this new environment. So step it up, everyone, and open up safely so people will start flying again!
