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2021 U.S. Open weekend odds: Surprising PGA picks, predictions from proven model that nailed six majors

Jun. 19, 2021
2021 U.S. Open weekend odds: Surprising PGA picks, predictions from proven model that nailed six majors

Richard Bland has turned back the clock at Torrey Pines, entering the final two rounds of the 2021 U.S. Open tied for the lead. With a victory at the U.S. Open 2021, Bland will secure his first win on the PGA Tour in just his fourth start at a major championship. Bland fired a four-under 67 on Friday, thanks to four birdies on his final nine holes. The 48-year-old is joined by Russell Henley atop the 2021 U.S. Open leaderboard at five-under par.

Meanwhile, Louis Oosthuizen and Matthew Wolff, who earned a runner-up finish at this event last season, sit one shot back. Despite sitting two shots off the lead, Jon Rahm is the 7-2 favorite at William Hill Sportsbook, followed by Xander Schauffele (6-1) and Oosthuizen (7-1). Henley and Wolff are next in line on the PGA odds board at 10-1, while Brooks Koepka, a four-time major champion, is going off at 12-1. With so many experienced players atop the leaderboard, you'll want to check out the U.S. Open predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine before locking in your 2021 U.S. Open picks.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been on fire since the return of the PGA Tour last June. In fact, it's up well over $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

At the Masters in April, McClure nailed Jon Rahm's (+250) top-five finish, as well as Corey Conners' (+550) top-10 showing. McClure's best bets netted over $450 at the Masters.

In addition, McClure was all over Daniel Berger's win at +1400 in his best bets at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February. McClure also nailed Viktor Hovland's (+2500) victory in the Mayakoba Golf Classic in December. That was one of many huge calls he's made in the past few months. He also finished profitable at the 2020 U.S. Open, nailing two of his best bets, including a +1100 top-five bet on Matthew Wolff.

This same model has also nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed its golf picks has seen massive returns.

Now that the U.S. Open 2021 cut has been made, SportsLine simulated the final two rounds 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected 2021 U.S. Open leaderboard.

One huge shocker the model is calling for: Oosthuizen, a major champion and one of the top Vegas favorites, stumbles and fails to crack the top five. The 38-year-old has seen a major resurgence in recent weeks, finishing inside the top-10 in three of his last four starts. Oosthuizen secured a runner-up finish at the PGA Championship in May and has finished inside the top-five in two of his last three starts at a major.

However, the 2010 Open Championship winner entered the 2021 U.S. Open ranked 88th or worse in strokes gained: off-the-tee (.0.93), birdie average (3.70) and overall putting average (1.600), which could spell trouble for Oosthuizen. If he's unable to find the fairway off the tee in the final two rounds, he'll be in major trouble given the thickness of the rough coupled with the lightning fast greens at Torrey Pines.

Another surprise: Justin Thomas, a 25-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. In order to score well at Torrey Pines, players need to pick up strokes around the greens and few do it better than Thomas. In fact, the 14-time PGA Tour champion entered the U.S. Open ranked 20th in strokes gained: around-the-green (.363).

Once he's on the green, Thomas has the uncanny ability to drain putts. He ranks ninth on tour in one-putt percentage (43.15) and fourth in putting average (1.706). SportsLine's model projects Thomas' short game will allow him to be in the mix this weekend, making him one of the top value picks that should be all over your radar.

The model is also targeting three other golfers with U.S. Open 2021 odds higher than 20-1 who will make a surprising run. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big. You can only see them here.

So who will win the 2021 U.S. Open? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2021 U.S. Open leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed six golf majors and is up well over $9,000 since the restart.

Jon Rahm 7-2Xander Schauffele 6-1Louis Oosthuizen 7-1Matthew Wolff 10-1Russell Henley 10-1Brooks Koepka 12-1Collin Morikawa 20-1Bryson DeChambeau 20-1Bubba Watson 22-1Justin Thomas 25-1Richard Bland 28-1Scottie Scheffler 33-1Rory McIlroy 35-1Kevin Streelman 40-1Dustin Johnson 66-1Mackenzie Hughes 80-1Harris English 80-1Branden Grace 80-1Daniel Berger 80-1Christiaan Bezuidenhout 80-1Patrick Rodgers 100-1Guido Migliozzi 100-1Charley Hoffman 125-1Russell Henley 125-1Lee Westwood 125-1Adam Hadwin 150-1Patrick Reed 150-1Phil Mickelson 150-1Patrick Cantlay 200-1Marc Leishman 200-1Brian Harman 200-1Hideki Matsuyama 200-1Joaquin Niemann 200-1Shane Lowry 250-1Sung-Jae Im 250-1Robert Macintyre 250-1Matt Jones 250-1Tommy Fleetwood 250-1Matthew Fitzpatrick 300-1Jhonattan Vegas 300-1Jordan Spieth 300-1Adam Scott 300-1Yosuke Asaji 300-1Rafa Cabrera Bello 300-1Paul Casey 400-1Gary Woodland 400-1Dylan Wu 400-1Rikuya Hoshino 400-1Charl Schwartzel 400-1Stewart Cink 400-1Sergio Garcia 400-1Tom Hoge 400-1Ian Poulter 400-1Chez Reavie 500-1J.T. Poston 500-1Lanto Griffin 500-1Francesco Molinari 500-1Wilco Nienaber 500-1Dylan Frittelli 500-1Kevin Kisner 750-1Si-Woo Kim 750-1Martin Kaymer 750-1Edoardo Molinari 1000-1Greyson Sigg 1000-1Kyle Westmoreland 1000-1Chris Baker 1500-1Fabian Gomez 1500-1


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