The San Francisco 49ers blockbuster trade up the board in the 2021 NFL Draft from No. 12 overall to the third pick sent shockwaves throughout the football world.
Its now more than clear that San Francisco is looking for a quarterback of the future after giving up three first-round picks and a third-round pick to move up with the Miami Dolphins.
Whether its Justin Fields, Trey Lance or Mac Jones with the third selection, this also raises some major questions about Jimmy Garoppolos future with the 49ers.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch touched on this in a post-trade press conference with the media earlier in the week. In the process, they did everything possible to prop up Garoppolo.
Jimmy wasnt totally excited about it but he handled it great like he always does, Shanahan said. We still plan on him leading us and getting as far as we can with him.
First off, its no surprise Garoppolo wouldnt be excited about San Francisco giving up the farm to find his eventual replacement. Would you be happy if your employer brought in a younger and more talented individual to train behind you while paying out of the back end to hire said individual? I didnt think so.
Secondly, the 49ers brass made sure to note that Shanahan spoke with Garoppolo immediately after the blockbuster trade was made. Lynch spoke with the embattled quarterback later in the day.
This is of significance in that some of the conversation surrounded how excited San Francisco was about free agency and the idea of running it back with Garoppolo for the 2021 season.
The message was what we were doing, why we were doing it and how he is very much still a part of our plans, Lynch told reporters. I believe those conversations should remain private, but Jimmy, he welcomes competition.
Whether all of this was to prop up Garoppolo individually or in a potential trade remains to be seen. But theres a ton of factors here.
Signed to a five-year, $137.5 million extension back in February of 2018, the 29-year-old Garoppolo is set to count $26.4 million against the cap next season. As of right now, that would be the sixth-highest cap hit among quarterbacks in the NFL.
Theres no objective person who believes Garoppolo is worth that type of cap hit. Despite this, the 49ers ownership group signed off on paying him said cash in 2021 while employing a highly-drafted rookie quarterback.
Lynch and Co. entered free agency without much money to spend under the 2021 NFL salary cap. A lot of that had to do with the revenue downfall created by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Using team president Paraag Marathes expertise when it comes to the cap, San Francisco was able to retain a vast majority of its target free agents while even adding depth to the roster. It was no small accomplishment.
All the while, San Francisco budgeted for Garoppolos $26.4 million cap hit. We now know why. Restructuring said contract while lowering his 2021 cap number would have linked the quarterback to these 49ers for beyond next season, at least from a financial perspective.
Right now, the 49ers can release or trade Garoppolo with a mere $2.8 million dead cap hit. If they were to make that move following the 2021 season, Lynch and Co. would save a whopping $25.6 million against the 2022 cap. Any restructure would have changed this in a big way.
Lets look at the optics during Alabamas Pro Day this week. San Franciscos brass was on hand in Tuscaloosa to watch first-round prospect, quarterback Mac Jones, work out. The same can be said for New England Patriots head coach and main decision-maker Bill Belichick.
So, its rather interesting that Lynch, Shanahan and Belichick were seen at the pro day chatting it up.
Theres an obvious backdrop here. New Englands interest in reacquiring Garoppolo after trading him to San Francisco midway through the 2017 season is by now well known.
They could be chatting about the weather in Alabama. Perhaps, Belichick really wants to know how Lynchs coffee tastes. Okay, thats not fun when it comes to speculation during the NFLs silly time.
Even then, the 49ers made their trade with the Miami Dolphins official during the BYU Pro Day when Zach Wilson was working out in Utah. Business is conducted at these annual events. Its not all about watching a prospect throwing the ball through the roof.
By propping up Garoppolo and talking about him as their likely Week 1 starter, the 49ers are sending a clear message to New England. A trade will not come on the cheap. Shanahan pretty much made that clear in his comments about San Francisco being willing to listen to offers.
"Yeah, that's accurate with every player on our team. I mean, probably including myself, Shanahan said when asked whether the 49ers would consider a Jimmy Garoppolo trade. If someone blows us away with a trade for me, I bet you John would trade me. I mean, definitely.
The moral of this story? San Francisco is more than fine going into Week 1 with an unnamed rookie backing up Garoppolo. Whether that happens remains to be seen.
Shanahan made it perfectly clear during the post-trade presser that he wouldnt feel comfortable heading into the season with a rookie as the 49ers starter. He firmly believes that San Francisco remains in Super Bowl contention despite last seasons injury-plagued six-win performance.
Were in a situation where when you bring in a rookie quarterback, to me, it's always better, especially on the team that you have, if you've got a veteran starter there already who you like and you're comfortable winning with, the head coach told reporters. That's usually the direction you want to go and not throw someone else out into the fire until they're fully ready. That's the situation we're at.
Unlike the narrative thrown out there (myself included) during free agency, the 49ers were not looking at backup scenarios to Garoppolo. Rather, they were targeting potential stopgap options to start ahead of a rookie quarterback. More cost-effective options to be clear.
That included the likes of Andy Dalton, Mitchell Trubisky and Ryan Fitzpatrick. San Franciscos interest in Deshaun Watson prior to explosive sexual assault allegations notwithstanding, this is what the team was doing behind the scenes.
The risk of trading Garoppolo is now more magnified. If Shanahan firmly believes a rookie quarterback cant lead the 49ers to Super Bowl contention, the free-agent options remaining at quarterback are not conducive to a Garoppolo trade. Alex Smith and Robert Griffin III? Yeah, thats not happening.
Theres a possibility that San Francisco looks into Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Gardner Minshew on the trade market. Hes firmly on the block with new Jags head coach Urban Meyer slated to select Clemson product Trevor Lawrence No. 1 overall in late April.
Minshew, 24, is set to count less than $2 million against the cap over the next two years. Hes had success in the past and could likely be had for a mid-round pick.
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Marcus Mariota becomes another option after he restructured his contract. Said restructure came with a no-trade clause. But it doesnt take a genius to realize hed waive said clause if it meant being a starter in 2021 rather than backing up Derek Carr.
These are the only two realistic options the 49ers have should they opt to trade Jimmy Garoppolo. Obviously, thats dependent on Shanahan and Lynch not being comfortable with starting a rookie Week 1.
This is the biggest takeaway. Sure the 49ers will be more than happy to go into Week 1 with Garoppolo as the starter and a talented rookie learning behind him for a season.
Heck, theres a chance that Garoppolo returns to 2019 form and leads San Francisco to the playoffs. This would only enhance the quarterbacks trade value next offseason, which is no small thing given the 49ers lack of draft picks stemming from last weeks blockbuster.
This would be an ideal scenario. With that said, theres certainly other factors to look at.
Garoppolos 2021 cap number acts as a handcuff. The Patriots reported interest in him could lead to San Francisco receiving a nice return for this years draft. By that, I mean a mid-round pick and change. In turn, Garoppolo seemingly isnt happy about the blockbuster trade. That, too, could play a role in the 49ers decision-making process.
For now, its all a smokescreen. We have absolutely no idea what the 49ers are thinking. The shock level and lack of leaks from within San Franciscos organization leading up to the blockbuster trade with Miami adds even more credence to this.
