The Week 18 odds and playoff scenarios make for interesting betting situations on the final Sunday of the regular season. Following the action and betting line adjustments is key if you’re making wagers prior to kickoffs, and especially the Sunday Night Football game between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.
This will be one of the most bet games of the week with more bets flooding in prior to the Sunday Night Football feature. Additional parlays and teasers tied to the Packers-Lions contest, along with more prop bets will add to the handle. NFL weather shows freezing temperatures near 25 degrees in Green Bay with Southwest winds near 10 MPH for this playoff play-in game.
Caesars Sportsbooks provides the spread and over/under betting splits for each game Sunday. Point spread bets and money are supporting most the favorites. The information changes as bets come in prior to kickoff of each game, but Sunday morning spread splits show the Indianapolis Colts, now up to a -3 point favorite, taking a whopping 96% of the spread bets vs the Houston Texans.
The San Francisco 49ers (-14), New Orleans Saints (-3.5), Los Angeles Rams (now +5) are all taking more than 82% of the spread money (handle), followed by the Buffalo Bills (-8) and New York Giants (up to +16.5) at more than 70% of the spread money.
Game odds and betting data refresh periodically and are subject to change.
The NFL moved the Lions-Packers game to Sunday Night Football with much on the line. Both teams are 8-8, and a Packers win and they are in the playoffs as the No. 7 seed in the NFC. If Seattle (8-8) loses in the late afternoon games, then the Lions can also get the No. 7 seed with a win over the Packers. A Seahawks win eliminates Detroit from playoff contention, and then a Packers loss gets Seattle into the playoffs as the No. 7 seed.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers can complete an improbable run to the playoffs with a victory over the Lions tonight at Lambeau Field. Green Bay has won four straight and is currently a 5-point favorite. That line may move during the Seahawks game and following the contest between the Seahawks and LA Rams.
The Lions defeated the Packers in Week 9 by a final score of 15-9 and closed a 4-point underdog. Three Aaron Rodgers interceptions were costly in defeat for Green Bay. The Lions are 6-5 straight up (SU) and 9-2 against the spread (ATS) in the last 11 meetings in this NFC North rivalry. Beginning with that Week 9 win, the Lions are a stellar 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS over their last nine games. But the Packers are also rolling, winning and covering in each of their last four games. For this contest, the Packers have a slight edge in spread bets (61%) and dollars wagered (63%).
The Lions are 4-1 in division games this season, and Detroit is on a 10-2 ATS run vs NFC North division opponents. The Packers have covered 10 of their last 14 games as a home favorite.
Caesars Sportsbook also reports that teams getting points as the underdog have gone .500 or better against the spread in 15 of the 17 completed weeks. For the season, underdogs are 133-112-7 ATS, the fifth year in a row they have had a winning record. The ‘Dogs have been especially feisty in divisional games, going 47-34 (.580) ATS this campaign. Since 2002 when the NFL went to four-team divisions, the best divisional records ATS by underdogs in a season were in 2006 (58-35-3, .630), 2015 (54-37-4, .593), and 2020 (54-41, .568).
Week 18 often provides surprises with the pressure to win mounting and underdogs still playing hard if more starters are playing. Just ask the Colts last year in Week 18 needing to win to make the playoffs as a 14-point favorite but losing on the road to the last place Jaguars.
The Playbook Sports Totals Tipsheet also provides this betting data for over/under bettors. The last game of the regular season has gone 16-1-1 Over/Under (last 5 years) when the pointspread is less than 14 points and the over/under line is 46 or more points. The Lions-Packers total is currently 49 points. In addition, teams off four or more straight up wins like the Packers have gone 13-2 over/under the next game the last 5 years. Also, the Lions and Packers both scored at least 40 points last week, and that sets up another 8-1 over/under subset situation for the home favorite the next game.
Football Outsiders data also shows the Lions (5th) and Packers (8th) weighted DVOA offense (more recent games) ranking highly while both teams weighted DVOA defense ranking below average - Packers (18th), Lions (25th).
Will Lions RB Jamaal Williams break Barry Sanders franchise TD record? Prop bettors think so.
The disrespect factor is also in play following QB Aaron Rodgers comments this week as well.
“This means a lot, because I feel like they don’t respect us,” Lions safety DeShon Elliott told reporters in Detroit on Friday. “(Rodgers) doesn’t respect us, that team doesn’t respect us. We shouldn’t be an underdog, no matter what the record says. Going out there, I think we’re going to fight our ass off, play smashmouth football, just because of the respect factor.”
The Lions will come to play with a solid effort vs the Packers regardless of the playoff potential or win and you’re in situation.
You can bet on it.
