The Divisional Round of the NFL postseason features some great matchups, none bigger than the Bengals at Bills (will Damar Hamlin make an appearance?) and Cowboys at 49ers! We also have a potential shootout set up in Kansas City between the Jaguars and Chiefs, and a possible upset alert game when the Giants visit the NFC’s No. 1-seeded Eagles. Here’s a few of the props I like this weekend, and you can find them (and many more) over at SI Sportsbook! Also, be sure to check out the picks from our Princess of Props, Jen Piacenti, and fantasy experts Frankie Taddeo and Shawn Childs!
I was wrong about Prescott throwing an interception last week, but I’m sticking with the prop once again in a much tougher matchup in San Francisco. He’s still thrown at least one pick in seven of his last eight games, and he’s thrown zero interceptions in just three games. The Niners have also forced an interception in each of their last five games and have compiled seven picks in that time. What’s more, no team in the league had more interceptions (20) than the 49ers during the regular season.
Lawrence went off last week with four touchdown passes in a huge comeback win over the Chargers. This week’s game in Kansas City opened with an over/under of 52.5 on SI Sportsbook, so it should be a high-scoring affair at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs allowed a league-high 31 touchdown passes during the regular season, and Lawrence threw for a pair of touchdowns against them back in Week 10.
Mixon’s rushing totals have been uneven in recent weeks, alternating good and bad lines in the final eight games of the regular season. He still averaged 58.1 rushing yards and 15 carries per game, however, and the Bills defense allowed 4.25 yards per rush to enemy runners in 2022. There could be some snow that falls during the game, too, which could increase the ground attack for Cincinnati.
Kittle has had fewer than 40 receiving yards in six of his last eight games, so why would I predict he’ll have at least 50 this week? Because the number seems too high, and that’s when I’ll do the opposite of what is obvious (call it the Costanza player prop strategy). On a positive note (in terms of the prop hitting), the Cowboys faced just four of what I would consider high end tight ends … T.J. Hockenson (twice), Dallas Goedert (twice), Evan Engram and Tyler Higbee during the regular season. All four recorded 46 or more yards in at least one game, and two went over 60 yards.
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Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Click here to read all his articles here on SI Fantasy. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram for your late-breaking fantasy news and the best analysis in the business to help you win a fantasy championship!
