Many factors come into play when oddsmakers set lines of college football bowl games. In some instances, those factors - dominated by opt-outs for the NFL Draft as well as transfer portal decisions - can result in sportsbooks being forced to completely invert the opening betting line.
This bowl season bettors find two games where the original underdog is now listed as the betting favorite. These two massive moves involve Duke taking on Central Florida in the Military Bowl as well as Iowa taking on Kentucky in the Music City Bowl.
After a slow start to the season, my respected money information from Vegas has posted a 11-6-3 against the spread (ATS) record (64.7%) run over the last 20 plays.
Let’s dive in!
Spread: Duke -3.5 (-110) | UCF Knights +3.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Duke -188 | UCF Knights +138
Total: 62.5
Records: UCF 9-4 SU; 7-6 ATS / DUKE 8-4 SU; 8-4 ATS
Location: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
Date / TV / Time: Dec. 28 | 2 p.m ET | ESPN
Central Florida has massive issues heading into the Military Bowl as wideout Ryan O'Keefe - who led the team in receptions (73), linebacker Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste - third on the club in tackles (52) and cornerback Davonte Brown - second on the club in interceptions (2) all will not be available after entering the transfer portal.
The Knights will get a boost as quarterback John Rhys Plumlee will be playing after he announced that he is coming back for a fifth-year to play for head coach Gus Malzahn. However, the talented signal-caller missed several stretches of the AAC Championship Game dealing with hamstring and shoulder injuries. Rhys Plumlee will not be anywhere close to 100% and that could limit his effectiveness in Malzahn’s explosive offense.
Central Florida, despite posting a solid 9-4 record, enters the Military Bowl on a down note after losing 45-28 to Tulane in the AAC Championship Game. In addition, back on Nov. 19 the Knights lost to Navy 17-14 as 14.5-point home favorites. Overall, Central Florida has burned bettors posting a dismal 0-3 ATS mark over their last three games.
On the other sideline, Duke was both 4-1 SU and ATS over their final four games. Duke’s solid defense versus a potentially limited Rhys Plumless is likely the difference here. Once again motivation is key here and Blue Devil players will play hard trying to secure first-year head coach Mike Elko’s first career bowl win.
Oddsmakers opened this game with UCF as small favorites, but that line is way gone as Duke now stands as a 2.5-point favorite. Don’t be afraid to tail this line move.
Spread: Duke -2.5
Spread: Iowa -2 (-110) | Kentucky +2 (-118)
Moneyline: Iowa -133 | Kentucky +105
Total: 31
Records: IOWA 7-5 SU; 7-5 ATS / UK 7-5 SU; 8-4 ATS
Location: Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
Date / TV/ Time: Dec. 31 | 12 p.m. ET | ABC
The biggest news here is that star Kentucky quarterback Will Levis as well as leading rusher Christopher Rodriguez Jr. (904 yards, 6 touchdowns) will not play in the Music City Bowl after opting out in favor of entering the 2023 NFL draft. Losing both of these offensive leaders is a massive blow to the Wildcats chances of winning in Nashville against one the nation’s best defenses.
Iowa, who has surrendered the sixth-fewest points (14.4) per game this season, should be able to dominate this showdown in typical Hawkeye defensive fashion. Just how much, you wonder? Check out the unbelievable 31 point game total posted by oddsmakers in this matchup!
The Hawkeyes, who are 4-1 SU and ATS over their last four games, will edge this one out in a low-scoring affair. Oddsmakers opened this game with Kentucky as small 2-point favorites, but the betting line has completely flipped with Iowa now installed with a 2-point demand. Follow the money and back the new betting favorite with slightly added juice.
Moneyline: Iowa -125
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call the National Council for Problem Gambling 1-800-522-4700.
