It’s clear to any who watched the Bears last year that Justin Fields is one of the top playmakers in the NFL. He broke numerous records over his incredible 2022 campaign, and kept things interesting in an otherwise disappointing 3-14 season. Despite the exciting touchdown runs it’s hard to quantify exactly how Fields impacted the Bears’ win-loss record, but that’s exactly what Sam Hoppen tried to do using WAR modeling, or Wins Above Replacement modeling.
Interestingly, Hoppen’s number crunching lists Fields as a top-10 QB in the league in terms of overall WAR, but it’s only because he was the best rushing QB by a large margin. In fact, Hoppen’s list indicated that Fields' passing game was a negative, not a positive. That’s probably largely because Fields had several abysmal passing games from a statistical standpoint, like his 7-21, 75-yard, one touchdown, one interception performance against the Lions, or his 8-17 for 106 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions line against the Texans.
There are limitations to the NFL version of WAR, however. To start, it only includes information from the league’s play-by-play data. Finally, it’s more difficult to measure an individual player’s effect on a play’s outcome since the success and failures of a team are more interconnected. The offensive line’s performance affects the quarterback which in turn affects the skill position players. All 11 players on each side of the ball need to work together to find success. WAR is an advanced stat more widely used in baseball, where it’s easier to measure one person’s impact on a play, or in a game. On any given play, one pitcher throws the ball to one batter. If a ball is put into play, only one or maybe two defenders have a real opportunity to make a play on the ball.
Regardless, it’s an interesting foray into something that resembles sabermetrics for football. The model also confirms what our eyes have told us for a long time: Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in football, and Justin Fields is an incredible playmaker with his legs.
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