After finishing last season with the best record in the Eastern Conference and coming within one transition three from the NBA Finals, the South Beach crew has descended all the way down to eighth in the standings with an uninspiring 21-20 record.

So, what’s changed?

Well, it’s certainly not their defense, which remains as hellacious as ever, sitting at sixth in the league in Defensive Rating just a season after being fifth in the category. No, the main reason for their departure from the top of the conference has been their offense, which is 25th overall after finishing tenth in Offensive Rating last year.

What’s more, this isn’t the first time their offense has experienced a steep drop-off the year after a deep playoff run. After making it to the NBA Finals in 2019-20 (with the seventh-best Offensive Rating), the Heat’s offense fell to 18th in 2020-21.

And at the risk of sounding over simplistic, there is one common swing variable that could be causing their offensive efficiency to fluctuate: three-point shooting.

During the Heat’s years of prosperity (2019-20 and 2021-22), the team was second and first in three-point percentage, respectively. In their seasons of offensive famine (20-21 and 22-23), Miami has ranked 19th and 25th in that category.

If you’ve followed the sport for long enough, you’ve surely heard the maxim that the NBA is a “make-or-miss league.” This proclamation is especially true for this Heat offense. To understand why, let’s focus on another basketball proverb – “know your personnel.”

Six of the Heat’s top ten in minutes per game is made up of players one would describe as “shooters.” Financially speaking, roughly 61.1 million dollars is tied up to these players (roughly 40.7% of the team’s active salary cap, per Spotrac). And this is without factoring in Tyler Herro’s 4-year, 130-million dollar contract that will begin counting against the cap next season.

With these players eating up so much of their available resources, it would be wise for the team to tailor their system to their strengths. And as you can imagine, Erik Spoelstra – the man named as one of the NBA’s 15 greatest coaches last season – is quite sagacious.

Over the last four seasons, Miami has finished in the top 8 in three-point attempts per 100 possessions every season except 2021-22 (where they still finished 12th).

So because of their personnel, the Heat live and die by the three-ball more than most teams in the association. And unfortunately for them, this year, they have been doing a lot more of the latter than the former.

Of the six players we referenced earlier, five have experienced a significant decrease in their three-point percentage from this year to last. The one exception to this trend, Herro, was shooting only 33.7% from behind the arc until the calendar flipped to December.

With all this in mind, there is some good news here too. Three-point shooting can be an incredibly volatile variable. And just like it can swing heavily from season-to-season, it can also experience stark changes within a singular season.

Judging from their outputs last year, all these fallen marksmen have it in them to rekindle their old flame (like Herro already has). If that happens, history suggests that their overall Offensive Rating will rise alongside their percentages. And if they can manage to bring that up while maintaining their already stout defense, Miami becomes a team that no one wants to face when the playoffs start this Spring.