Wake Forest returns to action after an 11-day break with a home matchup against the Virginia Tech Hokies on New Years’ Eve. The Deacs are flying high after an 81-70 upset win over Duke on Dec. 20, and VT will look to bounce back from a five-point road loss at Boston College. Here are our keys to the game along with an X Factor that could make all the difference for the Deacs:
Guarding the three-point line
Virginia Tech averages 75.4 points per game, over 40 of which come from the trio of Sean Pedulla (17.3 ppg), Justyn Mutts (13.3 ppg), and Wright State transfer Grant Basile (13.9 ppg). Pedulla specifically is a prolific threat on the offensive end, as he also leads the team in assists (4.1 ppg). Tech isn’t a stellar three-point shooting team at just over 35%, but Mutts is the team’s most efficient scorer from deep, knocking them down at a 46.7% clip. Basile isn’t far behind at 40.9%. It should be noted that Mutts has only attempted 15 threes, while Basile has taken 67.
Those three-point metrics are something to keep an eye on. Against Clemson and Rutgers, Wake gave up a combined 20 three-pointers at a rate of over 40% and was blown out in both contests. However, Wake was able to hold Duke to under 30% three-point shooting and emerged with a double-digit victory. The Deacs’ defense is at its best when Steve Forbes’ group is playing with active hands, rotating well and forcing long possessions. If Wake finds itself giving Mutts and Basile a plethora of open looks, it could be a long night for the Demon Deacons.
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Thirteen games into the 2022 season, the Hokies have been led in scoring by Basile, Mutts or Pedulla in all games but one. Bench production is not an area of strength for this team — the starters accounted for 64 of the team’s 65 points in their recent loss to Boston College. This trio will certainly make their share of plays, but if the Deacs can prevent one or multiple of them from going nuclear (i.e. Justyn Mutts’ 27-point clinic in a win over UNC earlier in the season), it could give them an edge, especially with Hunter Cattoor potentially being out due to injury.
Battle for the Paint
Wake Forest has a height advantage over the Hokies down low. The tallest VT players that see frequent playing time are the 6-10 Lynn Kidd, the 6-9 Basile and the 6-9 Mylyjael Poteat. However, out of those three, only Basile plays more than 13 minutes per game. Wake Forest, on the other hand, trots out the 6-10 Andrew Carr and the 7-1 Matthew Marsh in the starting lineup, and can rotate in 7-0 Davion Bradford off the bench. This gives Wake an opportunity to generate quality looks in the paint and edge the Hokies on the boards as well. That said, though Mutts is only 6-7 and Basile 6-9, they’re crafty inside and are both more experienced than Wake’s bigs. The tradeoff of size for experience should make for an intriguing matchup.
The rebounding of Wake’s guards and forwards will be important too. Tech’s leading rebounder is Mutts (7.9 rpg). Guys like Cameron Hildreth, Damari Monsanto and even Tyree Appleby will need to crash the boards to prevent Tech from scoring a boatload of second-chance points.
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Part of the reason the Deacs were able to take down Duke was their execution on the glass — they outrebounded the Blue Devils by eight. If they can follow the same recipe against the Hokies, I like their chances to come out on top.
Guard showdown
Both teams are led by stellar guard play on offense. For Wake Forest, Appleby is the star of the show, leading the team in scoring (18.0 ppg) and passing (5.3 apg). Hildreth also does a little bit of everything for the Deacs, chipping in 12.3 points and a team-high 6.5 rebounds per contest. For Tech, Pedulla and Hunter Cattoor combine for nearly 28 points and six assists per game.
The matchup between Appleby and Pedulla will be particularly interesting to watch. Both have emerged as top-tier guards in the ACC and play efficient basketball (Appleby shoots 50% from the floor, Pedulla 48%). Appleby is the quicker of the two and one of the fastest players in the conference — his speed could cause some issues for Pedulla defensively. If Appleby can use his quickness and tight handle to get into the paint, this could free up some looks on the perimeter for his teammates or result in some easy layups.
It’s possible that whichever team has the more efficient guard performance will emerge with the victory. Either way, with two of the conference’s premier scorers going toe-to-toe, you won’t want to miss this one.
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X- Factor: Wake Forest’s production at the five
Matthew Marsh has been remarkably efficient for Wake Forest this season, averaging just over seven points per game on 88.6% from the field. In the Deacs’ upset win over Duke, Marsh went a perfect 5/5 from the field, scoring 10 points and pulling down five rebounds in a career-high 27 minutes. The offense thrives when Marsh plays within himself and accepts his role on the court, which is to take high percentage looks, play disciplined defense in the post and crash the boards. If he can do that against Tech, the Deacs will be better on both ends of the floor.
However, it will take a collective effort from Wake’s big men to help take down the Hokies. Andrew Carr has gotten into foul trouble at times this year — Forbes will need him to stay out there to stretch the floor and help defend Virginia’s forwards. Also, Davion Bradford will need to chip in valuable bench minutes to give Marsh or Carr a blow and maintain a high level of play in the post. The Demon Deacon big men will need to play physical, efficient and clean basketball in order for Wake to come away with the win against a talented and scrappy VT squad.
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