Depending on your point of view, the 2020-21 season for the Utah Jazz was either a success or a disappointment.
The successful perspective would point to the fact that Utah finished with the best regular-season record in the NBA and advanced one round further in the postseason than the team did a year ago. The disappointing part was that Utah failed to capitalize on an injury to LA Clippers star Kawhi Leonard, one that seemed to open the door for the team's first conference finals appearance since 2007.
However, the team had its own injuries to deal with, which leads to the offseason focus: whether or not to re-sign point guard Mike Conley Jr., who made his first career All-Star appearance this past season but also missed nearly the entire second round of the playoffs with a hamstring injury.
What is the going rate for a soon-to-be 34-year-old All-Star point guard who has been besieged by injuries the past two seasons? As unfair as that question might sound, that is what the Jazz are asking themselves as they head into the summer.
While his first season in Utah was far from perfect, Conley has played at an All-Star level since the Orlando bubble and was a big reason the Jazz had the best record in the NBA this season.
In the first-round series against the Memphis Grizzlies, Conley was Utah's best player, averaging 17.4 points and 8.6 assists, and shooting 54.8% from 3-point range. Unfortunately, injuries to his left hamstring in 2019-20 and now his right hamstring have seen him miss 45 games, including the first five in the second-round loss to the Clippers.
The Jazz will have to weigh the risks against the rewards on any new contract for Conley. When Utah acquired Conley in 2019, the front office knew contract extensions for Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert were on the horizon, and the price tag to keep this team together would be expensive. The Jazz also had to know that because of their finances, there would be no easy way to replace Conley if they decided to end their relationship after two seasons.
The market for Conley outside of Utah is limited. The Miami Heat and New York Knicks are the only teams that project to have both cap space and a need at point guard. The Toronto Raptors could also have room if Kyle Lowry signs with another team, but with Fred VanVleet and Malachi Flynn at both guard spots, they would be better served using their cap space on other positions, rather than signing a 34-year-old replacement for the 35-year-old Lowry. The Dallas Mavericks could get into the mix to put Conley alongside Luka Doncic, but that would likely come at the expense of free agent Tim Hardaway Jr.
All of that adds up to a scenario where the Jazz have the inside track to re-signing Conley without needing to overpay.
The chart provided by ProFitX takes into account injuries, age and on-court performance and shows a starting salary for Conley Jr. to range from a low of $16.3 million to a high of $21.8 million.
If the Jazz signed Conley to a two-year, $40 million contract, his salary would rank in the top 15 among all point guards. To help mitigate financial risk, the Jazz could make the second season non-guaranteed, and add a minutes or games clause that would guarantee his contract if he hit certain milestones in the first season. For example, if Conley played either in 65 games or 1,650 minutes during the 2021-22 season, his $20 million salary for 2022-23 would become guaranteed.
Although the Jazz could be looking at a franchise-high $45 million tax bill next season, there is a possibility of a tax break if leaguewide Basketball Related Income doesn't recover to pre-pandemic levels.
The Jazz did all their heavy lifting last season, leaving them very little to do this summer beyond making a decision on Conley. Utah committed a combined $370 million to Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, each of whom signed a five-year contract extension in 2020. Both players will return next season, as will at least nine other players from this season's roster. Utah will be in a strong position as far as continuity is concerned heading into next season.
Utah does have a first-round pick, as well as the $5.9 million taxpayer midlevel exception, to add to the roster, but the Jazz could be reluctant to use the exception if the cost to retain Conley is high, as doing so would add a significant sum to their luxury tax bill.
The extensions for Mitchell and Gobert kick in this season, which has Utah right at the $136 million luxury tax line before free agency begins.
If guard Conley returns on an $18 million contract and the rest of the roster is filled with minimum contracts, the Jazz would pay a tax penalty north of $40 million.
Team needs
Resources to build the roster
• The league will finalize the 2021-22 salary cap shortly before free agency begins on Aug. 2. Any adjustments to the projected $112.4 million cap figure would affect Mitchell's extension. When he signed the deal back in November, the first-year salary was set at 25% of the cap. If the cap takes a jump bigger than the 3% the league planned for, Mitchell's salary would increase as well.
• The Jazz have until Aug. 3 to guarantee the $1.8 million contract of Matt Thomas. Miye Oni's $1.8 million non-guaranteed contract does not have an offseason trigger date.
• The non-guaranteed contracts for Oni and Thomas have no outgoing salary value in trades until they are guaranteed.
• The poison-pill restriction on Mitchell's extension gets lifted on Aug. 3.
• Gobert cannot be traded until Oct. 12, when the signing restriction on his extension gets lifted.
• Due to previous trades, the Jazz cannot trade a first-round pick until either 2026 or two years after the conditions on the first-round pick owed to Memphis have been met (possibly 2024).
• Bojan Bogdanovic is set to enter the third year of the four-year contract he signed in 2019, making him extension eligible. Bogdanovic is coming off a regular season where he played all 72 games and a postseason that saw him shoot 45.6% from 3 and average 18.5 points. The Jazz can add an additional three seasons and up to $76 million in new money. The deadline to extend his contract is Oct. 18.
• Despite signing a one-year extension in 2019, Joe Ingles is once again extension eligible. Starting on Oct. 1, the Jazz can extend his contract for an additional four seasons and a starting salary of $14.9 million in the first year. Ingles will turn 34 one day after he is extension eligible.
• Thomas and Oni are also extension eligible.
The Jazz have their own first-round pick, the last pick in the round. They traded their second-round pick to the Pacers in a draft-day deal in 2019 that brought them the rights to Jarrell Brantley.
The Jazz owe a future first-round pick to Memphis as part of the deal that brought Conley to Utah. That pick is top-6 protected in 2022, top-3 protected in 2023 and top-1 protected in 2024. If it has not conveyed by 2024, Utah would instead send Memphis second-round picks in 2025 and 2026.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Utah selecting in July:
No. 30 (own): Greg Brown | PF | Texas
The Jazz have made six draft-night transactions in the past two years. Last year they moved back four slots in the first round, picking up a second-round pick in the process. That pick (No. 38, Saben Lee) and the contract of Tony Bradley were traded to the Detroit Pistons to help the Jazz save money under the luxury tax.
The Jazz also paid $3.5 million and sent a 2022 second-round pick to New Orleans for the draft rights to Elijah Hughes, whom the Pelicans had selected with the No. 39 overall pick.