What needs to change for your favorite college basketball team in 2023? The calendar’s flipping to ’23 and the start of conference play gives everyone a chance for something of a fresh start, and there’s still plenty of time for teams to change their trajectories before Selection Sunday. So in the spirit of the New Year, here’s a look at some resolutions for some of the sport’s best teams. Follow them, and these squads might just end up in Houston for the Final Four.
The Huskies have been the most complete team in the country to date, showing off a rare blend of shotmaking, toughness and depth that has keyed their incredible start to the season. It’s been impressive watching the Huskies’ buy-in: UConn’s two best NBA prospects might be Andre Jackson Jr., who averages just 5.6 points per game, and Donovan Clingan, who comes off the bench. This is a group that seemingly enjoys playing with one another and is completely bought in.
Of course, over a long season, things can change. It’s hard to maintain the level the Huskies have shown over a five-month stretch. Last year, Auburn looked like the consensus No. 1 in late January, but its season ended in a whimper by March. That’s what UConn has to avoid at this point.
Virginia is shooting more than 36% from three this season, but that number is heavily buoyed by a hot-shooting initial start. The Cavaliers made 11 threes per game at a 52% clip in the season’s first three games, and since then have made just five triples per contest at a 29% clip. For a team’s offense that is built far more on ball and player movement than self-creation ability, knocking down threes is essential, and Virginia just hasn’t done that lately.
Last season, the Hoos shot only 32% from deep as a team, a huge reason for offensive struggles that led them to miss the NCAA tournament. This is a clearly improved group, but to win an ACC title, Virginia needs to be an above-average shooting team.
John Calipari is still searching for answers as the calendar flips to 2023.
Kentucky got handled on the road at Missouri Wednesday in the latest setback for a team that looks neither overly talented nor overly cohesive at this point. Calipari tested some two-big lineups that were exposed by Mizzou’s pace and space, but more traditional looks haven’t generated easy offense against top competition either. Outside of Cason Wallace, Kentucky’s guard play has been poor, and Calipari hasn’t found an answer at power forward after a disappointing season so far from Jacob Toppin.
Calipari flipped his roster-building strategy to be far more transfer-heavy than his traditional one-and-done models of the past. When doing that, Calipari traded top-end talent for experience and, ideally, a roster that fit together better. But Kentucky isn’t showing off the faster learning curve you’d expect from an older group. A team with a star like Oscar Tshiebwe and a guard as talented as Wallace still has some upside, but without the top-tier talent around them, Calipari has to find a way to maximize these role players or risk this being a lost season in Lexington.
Duke’s two highest-rated recruits in the 2022 class missed key practice time in the preseason due to injuries and are still clearly getting up to speed. Lively and Whitehead were No. 1 and No. 3 in the SI99, respectively, but are combining to average just 11.1 points per game, having been relegated to limited minutes throughout nonconference play.
Whitehead’s billing was as a versatile wing who could handle the ball and make threes. The Blue Devils could really use the shooting right now, as they have shot just 31% from deep this season. His playmaking ability could also ease the load on Jeremy Roach at point guard, who has been heavily relied upon thus far. Lively’s biggest appeal is as a defender thanks to his massive wingspan and shot-blocking instincts, which would make an already-impressive Duke defense even tougher to crack. This team doesn’t have the same ceiling without those two finding their stride, and Jon Scheyer would be wise to keep force-feeding them minutes even if it means an extra loss or two in January.
The Cougars don’t need to change much: 12–1 Houston is No. 1 in KenPom and has as good a chance as anyone to get to the Final Four.
That said, the one thing that hasn’t been consistent with this group has been its frontcourt play. Rebounding and stingy defense up front is a given, but right now Houston is a tad too reliant on jump shooting from Marcus Sasser and Jamal Shead. Freshman forward Jarace Walker is packed with upside and had perhaps the best game of his career before Christmas against Virginia, but inconsistency has been a problem. Meanwhile, center J’Wan Roberts is a strong rebounder but stands just 6'7" and doesn’t provide the same post scoring punch Josh Carlton did a season ago. If Walker and Roberts keep coming into their own, this group will become that much tougher to beat.
This is the best passing team Bill Self has had in more than a decade, dishing out assists on more than 60% of its made field goals en route to the Jayhawks’ strong 11–1 nonconference mark. Rather than the scoring point guards and back-to-the-basket bigs that have often defined Self’s Kansas teams, this year’s version has a pass-first lead guard in Dajuan Harris Jr. and a more versatile glue guy at center in the undersized KJ Adams Jr. The result: one of my favorite offenses to watch in college basketball, a group that frequently turns down good shots for great ones and spaces the floor incredibly effectively.
UCLA has championship upside, as showcased by the Bruins’ demolitions of Maryland and Kentucky earlier this month. But for this group to truly reach its ceiling, it needs to get more from freshman guard Bailey in its biggest games.
Bailey may be averaging nearly 10 points per game, but his impact has been muted in the Bruins’ biggest contests, scoring just 13 combined points in the team’s four toughest nonconference games against Illinois, Baylor, Maryland and Kentucky. He brings a skill set no other Bruin has with his ability to generate open shots for himself, something UCLA will need in big games come March. His first two Pac-12 performances were encouraging, and ideally conference play gives him the time he needs to really find his footing. If he does, this already-dangerous UCLA offense will find another gear.
This advice was true last season, and it’s even more important with this Carolina team, which hasn’t shot as well from three with sharpshooter Brady Manek now in the professional ranks. In North Carolina’s four-game losing streak, Bacot missed one game and averaged under 10 shots per game in the three games he did play. Since then, Bacot has taken 15 or more shots in three of four games, including season-changing wins over Ohio State and Michigan. He’s a dominant force when he can catch the ball with deep post position, and getting him those touches has to be the focal point of this UNC offense, not isolation drives for Caleb Love and RJ Davis.
Nate Oats’s run-and-gun mentality offensively has been a perfect fit for this Alabama team. And the Crimson Tide’s young players have thrived thanks to Oats’s willingness to empower guards to make plays early in the shot clock.
That said, the one thing that letting a young team play fast can do is open you up to turnovers, and Alabama has given the ball away in bunches this season. The Tide rank in the bottom 50 nationally in turnover rate, and defensively are among the nation’s worst at forcing turnovers. Alabama has a minus-4.7 turnover margin per game, a number that feels impossible to overcome in March. Getting Jahvon Quinerly fully healthy should help some at the point guard position, but in general the Tide either need to take care of the ball better or start wreaking more havoc on the defensive end.
The Vols were rolling heading into the NCAA tournament last year, blowing past the SEC tournament competition the week before and then crushing Longwood in the first round of the Big Dance. Then, Michigan came out of nowhere and shocked the Vols thanks to an uncharacteristic 2-for-18 shooting performance from beyond the arc by Tennessee. It was a familiar story for Tennessee fans and for Rick Barnes, who has experienced as much March heartache as anyone in recent years.
The Vols once again look like a team with Final Four upside. They’re a monster on the defensive end and are terrific on the offensive glass. Even with some limitations on the offensive end, this group has SEC and national contender written all over it. But when it comes to NCAA tournament time, will the Vols finally break through?
