The Toronto Raptors are facing a conundrum with O.G. Anunoby leading up to the Feb. 9 NBA trade deadline.
Anunoby is currently averaging 16.9 points on 45.7 percent shooting, 5.5 rebounds and a league-leading 2.1 steals per game. He's also one of the league's best, most versatile defenders, as evidenced by his third-place rank in Dunks and Threes' defensive estimated plus/minus.
However, Anunoby is a virtual lock to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2024 by declining his $19.9 million player option for the 2024-25 season. As they ponder a larger-scale shakeup, the Raptors might have to consider preemptively trading Anunoby before he's able to become a free agent.
They can thank the NBA's extension rules for that.
Under the current collective bargaining agreement, teams can offer no more than 120 percent of a player's previous salary or 120 percent of the league's estimated average salary (whichever is greater) in the first year of a new extension. From there, they can offer 8 percent annual raises, which is what Anunoby would receive if he re-signed with the Raptors as a free agent, too.
Anunoby agreed to a four-year, $72 million extension with the Raptors in December 2020. He's earning $17.4 million this season and is set to earn $18.6 million next year. That's well above the league's estimated average salary, so the Raptors can't offer him more than roughly $22.4 million (120 percent of his 2023-24 salary) as the starting salary of a new extension. Even with the maximum 8 percent annual raises, their four-year extension offer tops out at roughly $100.2 million.
The NBAâs salary cap is currently projected to jump to $134 million next season, which means it could be north of $140 million by the time Anunoby is eligible to reach free agency in 2024. As a seven-year veteran, he'd be eligible to receive up to 30 percent of the salary cap as the starting salary of his new deal as a free agent, which would be above $40 million.
Even if no team is willing to offer Anunoby a max deal in 2024 free agency, he'll likely receive something between that and the most that the Raptors can offer him in an extension. With the salary cap set to soar in 2025-26 and beyond once the NBA's new national TV contracts kick in, teams should have no reservations about offering a nine-figure deal to a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in the midst of his prime.
That puts the Raptors in a difficult position, particularly given the rumblings about Anunoby that have trickled out in recent months.
Last May, Jake Fischer wrote at Bleacher Report that "word has circulated among rival front offices that Anunoby grew dissatisfied at times with his role in Toronto" during the 2021-22 season. However, "two sources with knowledge of the dynamic" told Fischer that Anunoby had "not directly expressed discontent with his situation with the Raptors" at the time.
That speculation hasn't quieted down, though. In fact, Canadian radio personality Bob McCown recently said he's heard something similar.
"I talked to an insider in the NBA yesterday on the phone," McCown said last Tuesday on his podcast (h/t Gilbert McGregor of Sporting News). "He tells me that Anunoby wants out of Toronto. Anunoby wants out."
According to Bruce Arthur of the Toronto Star, at least one team has offered Toronto three first-round picks for Anunoby. SNY's Ian Begley reported the New York Knicks "checked in" with the Raptors earlier this season and were "comfortable offering multiple first-round picks" for Anunoby, although he didn't think the trade talks "were at an advanced stage at that point."
On Monday, Shams Charania of The Athletic confirmed that the Knicks were willing to give up multiple first-round picks for Anunoby. He named the Phoenix Suns as another potential suitor to watch, as they have plenty of future first-round picks to offer along with promising young forward Cameron Johnson and the expiring contracts of Dario Saric and Jae Crowder.
Some executives also think the Memphis Grizzlies "could make a run" at Anunoby, according to HoopsHype's Michael Scotto. They're armed with all of their own first-round picks along with a top-four-protected 2024 first-rounder from the Golden State Warriors, and they could offer some combination of Danny Green's $10 million expiring contract and young players such as Ziaire Williams, Jake LaRavia and David Roddy.
The Raptors' best-case scenario might be forcing a bidding war for Anunoby leading up to the trade deadline. At 23-30, they're sitting two games behind the Chicago Bulls for the final spot in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament, and Anunoby, Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet are all among the top 15 leaguewide in minutes played per game.
Even if the Raptors sneak into the playoffs this year, they aren't likely to make it past the first round. From there, theyâll have a number of difficult financial decisions to confront. Both VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. will likely become free agents this offseason by declining their $22.8 million and $18.9 million player options, respectively, while Siakam is heading into the final year of his contract in 2023-24.
At some point, the Raptors are likely to pivot into retooling around reigning Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes. The haul they receive in an Anunoby trade could help expedite that process.
The Raptors shouldn't be in a hurry to make a deal yet. Offers will inevitably increase as the trade deadline creeps closer, and they could be holding out for any news from the NBA and the National Basketball Players Association about the ongoing collective bargaining agreement negotiations. Both sides can opt out of the CBA by Feb. 8âone day before the trade deadlineâwhich would cause it to expire after the 2022-23 season.
If either side does opt out, it might behoove the Raptors to wait on an Anunoby trade until the offseason. They should see whether the new CBA includes any changes to the league's extension rules, particularly if teams can offer a higher starting salary than currently allowed. That could make an Anunoby extension much more realistic possibility next year.
But if Feb. 8 comes and goes and there's no news about a new CBA, the league's extension rules could help force the Raptors' hand as they weigh whether to move Anunoby by the trade deadline.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
