When the Jake Paul vs. Ben Askren fight was first announced, it was a little surprising that Paul, the YouTube star, was a solid betting favorite over Askren, the former MMA standout. Now, that we’re less than three weeks away from the fight, those odds are beginning to tighten.
At one point, the money line on Paul was -220, and Askren was the +180 underdog. But as of this writing, BetOnline.ag has Paul at -125 (bet $125 to win $100) and Askren at -105 (bet $105 to win $100). While Paul was a 2/1 favorite in early February, it’s now basically a pick ‘em fight.
Which makes sense to me. Paul has scored impressive knockouts against AnEsonGib and Nate Robinson in his pro boxing career, but remember, that was against another YouTuber and a former professional basketball player. Paul had more experience in the ring than both of them.
While Askren isn’t a boxer—and was never known for his striking ability in MMA—he understands what it’s like to participate in a big-time fight. He also started his MMA career with 19-straight victories, so he’s certainly not a neophyte in combat sports.
As Askren said when the fight was announced, “I’m going to make a whole bunch of money to beat up a guy who is pretending to be an athlete. … Quite frankly, I’m impressed that you’ve deluded yourself into thinking that you’re actually a fighter … that beating up another YouTuber and beating up a boxer who have never been in the ring before makes you somehow good at boxing.”
According to OddsChecker, the oddsmakers might have erred in making Paul an early favorite, and in one 24-hour period this week, 64.5% of the bets that had been placed on this fight were for Askren.
“This has gotten out of control, but thankfully oddsmakers and bettors are coming to their sense,” OddsChecker spokesman Kyle Newman said in a statement. “Askren is a former Bellator and ONE welterweight champion. He has a career record of 19-2. Did he struggle against UFC fighters? Yes he did, but Paul isn’t a UFC fighter. Jake Paul is a former YouTuber who knocked out a former NBA player. These things aren’t equivalent. Honestly, it’d be quite the shock to see Paul last more than a round with a professional fighter, even if he’s a trained wrestler and not a boxer.”
At least one MMA fighter disagrees, though.
“Ben Askren hasn’t been the best striker in mixed martial arts,” featherweight Demetrious Johnson told MMA Fighting. “Do I think he’ll be the best striker in boxing? I would say I don’t think it’s gonna happen. … Yes, I know Jake Paul is a YouTube star. He’s training just as hard as a world champion is. He has unlimited access to the best trainers in the world. He has the funding, not saying Ben Askren doesn’t but anytime you fight somebody who has training, there’s always that chance. I’m not discounting Ben Askren out of this fight.
“But if somebody came to me and said, ‘Demetrious Johnson, here’s $1 million, who are you putting the money on? … If you don’t bet, I’m taking the $1 million with me’ … I’m throwing it on Jake Paul. I think he’s gonna win the fight.”
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