On January 10, all full-season standard NBA player contracts become fully guaranteed for the remainder of the 2022-23 season. If a contract is non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed right now, it will become fully guaranteed next Tuesday.

That deadline impacts many NBA teams. Once a contract becomes fully guaranteed, it cannot be removed from a team’s total salary by any method outside of trades, so many franchises with financial or roster size motivations may make moves in the coming days. Money and roster flexibility were key factors for the Boston Celtics and San Antonio Spurs in a recent deal involving center Noah Vonleh.

January 10 is only technically the deadline. In reality, players on non or partially-guaranteed contracts have to clear waivers entirely by January 10 to not be on a team’s books for the remainder of the season. That means they must be waived by January 7, which is tomorrow, to complete the 48-hour waiver process.

The Indiana Pacers have two players who are impacted by this deadline: Oshae Brissett and James Johnson. Both players are on non-guaranteed minimum contracts that will become fully guaranteed for the rest of the season if they are not cut by 5 pm Eastern Time on Saturday.

The usual considerations for teams when making these decisions relate to finances and roster spots. Waiving a player on a non-guaranteed contract frees up salary cap space and reduces the amount a team has to spend on its roster — at least until someone else is signed in place of the released player. It also opens up a roster spot, which can allow a team to sign another player or be more flexible in trades. With 10-day contracts now a tool that NBA teams can use, that optionality is valuable.

Currently, the Pacers have a full roster, so they cannot add any players without first waiving or trading one. But waiving a player can be done at any time — even if a contract is fully guaranteed — so long as a team is willing to pay a player who isn’t on the roster. While the contract guarantee deadline provides teams with a justified time to execute a waiver and free up a roster spot, it isn’t the final moment a franchise can easily shift its roster.

That matters for Indiana, who laregely has no financial issues. In fact, the Pacers actually need to add salary to their team. They are significantly below the salary floor, meaning that the team will have to pay out more money to its players if it doesn’t add to it’s team salary before the end of the season.

With the salary floor in mind, it wouldn’t be a big deal to the blue and gold if Johnson and Brissett have their deals guaranteed. It keeps the Pacers moving toward the salary floor, and it does little to reduce their flexibility; Indiana could still waive both of them at any time. Within the last two calendar years, the Pacers’ front office has moved on from a player on a fully guaranteed contract to bring in another piece — Jalen Lecque was waived in 2021 to open up a roster spot that was used to, ironically, sign Brisset while Keifer Sykes was released last season to clear a spot for Pacers forward Terry Taylor. Lecque and Sykes’ deals were both fully guaranteed when they were waived, and Taylor as well as Brissett are still with the Pacers today.

Those moves had a lasting impact, and they are relevant as precedent today. Sure, the Pacers can easily create roster and financial flexibility by moving on from a non-guaranteed deal before tomorrow ends. But they can create that same roster flexibility essentially whenever, and finances are less important this season than they usually are.

Indiana’s current regime waived Kelan Martin last season at the contract guarantee deadline, and they moved on from Damien Wilkins around the same time in 2018. History says that the Pacers will consider both directions and could go either way with Brissett and Johnson, but their current situation is different than it was in the past. History is less relevant.

That said, waiving Brissett doesn’t even seem like an option for the Pacers. He’s an every day player for the team this year and ranks ninth on the squad in minutes played. He’s one of the Pacers best forward options many nights, and there is no way Indiana could find a better player at his salary level or as a mid-season pickup. He’s safe.

“The rhythm of his game has gotten better and better,” Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle saif of Brissett last week. “He does some things that are elite — his rebounding, his cutting. He’s got a good sense for driving the ball.”

With Johnson, there is more to discuss. He has only played 71 total minutes for the blue and gold this year, and over half of them have come against the team he played for last year, the Brooklyn Nets. He knows their tendencies and plays.

The veteran frontcourt player is averaging 1.7 points and 0.9 rebounds per game. But the value Johnson provides to the Pacers is more about his off-court abilities than his on-court play. He’s an excellent vet who helps keep the locker room together, and that matters on a young team that is exceeding expectations.

“He’s amazing. He really helped the team get together,” Pacers center Goga Bitadze said of Johnson earlier in the campaign.

Indiana could save money and open a roster spot by moving on from Johnson. That would allow them to sign another player, if they were so inclined, or make an imbalanced trade. Both of those things have value and are worth considering for the Pacers.

But the team doesn’t really need the financial savings. They need to spend more at some point. And they can waive Johnson at any time if they are motivated to sign a different player or make a complex trade. The Pacers don’t have to move on from Johnson right now, especially with no obviously better alternatives. However, if they have plans to do so at some point anyway, now would be a resourceful time to do it.

The decision to keep Oshae Brissett beyond the contract guarantee deadline is an easy one for the Indiana Pacers. The decision to keep James Johnson is more complicated, but the value he provides off the court combined with the Pacers’ distance from the salary floor gives the team plenty of reason to keep him beyond January 7. The Pacers can, and might, create some flexibility in the next few days, but it would come at a cost that might not be worth it.