The long-awaited return of the Final Four is upon us. After a riveting two weeks of March Madness action, the 2021 NCAA Tournament is now down the regional winners going head-to-head tonight.
It all starts at 5:14 p.m. ET, when No. 1 seed Baylor takes on No. 2 Houston with a spot in the national championship game on the line. That will be followed by undefeated No. 1 Gonzaga clashing with No. 11 UCLA, the Cinderella of this year’s Big Dance, in a can’t-miss semifinal contest starting at 8:34 p.m. ET.
Few foresaw this Final Four after the 68-team field was revealed, with only .025% of brackets correctly predicting that Gonzaga, Baylor, Houston and UCLA would be the last teams standing after the regional finals. 37.5% of brackets did have at least one of the Final Four participants correct, however, and more than a third (34.2%) of brackets had at least two of the eventual participants penciled in.
Those figures are hardly a shock given how strong Gonzaga and Baylor performed during the regular season. The Bulldogs are still unblemished after 30 games and have just two more contests to win to cap off college basketball’s first undefeated campaign in almost fifty years.
Speaking of the Bruins, they have become just the fifth No. 11 seed to reach the Final Four since the tournament expanded to its current 64-team format back in 1985. They also became just the second squad to ever make a run from the First Four to the Final Four, joining the 2009-10 VCU Rams as the only school to make it this far into March Madness after starting out in the play-in round.
Houston has a chance to play spoiler tonight as well, with the Cougars making their first Final Four appearance since the Phi Slama Jama days in the early- to mid-1980’s. Houston did reach consecutive national championship games in 1983-84, but failed to win the national title during either trip. The Cougars aren’t projected to cut down the nets in Indy tonight though, with oddsmakers giving Baylor a big edge in this semifinal contest.
Read on to find out how you can watch both of today’s Final Four games. You can also check out the latest bracket and see the updated odds for each of these thrilling March Madness matchups. There’s also look-ahead lines for each potential national title game showdown and championship odds for all four schools remaining in the 2021 NCAA Tournament.
You can find the latest 2021 NCAA Tournament bracket, which has been updated ahead of the Final Four, by clicking here.
Seeding: No. 1 South vs. No. 2 Midwest
Start Time: 5:14 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Live Stream: March Madness Live
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
The public likes the Cougars to pull an upset tonight, with 63% of all bets made against the spread backing Houston. The bigger bettors are not afraid to lay five points with this Baylor squad though, evidenced by two-thirds (66%) of all the money wagered being on the Bears. Despite this relatively lopsided action, oddsmakers haven’t adjusted the betting line at all since this matchup first went up on the board.
The total of 134.5 points is far more polarizing, with a dead-even, 50-50 split for the over and the under in terms of both tickets and the handle. Despite the deadlock, Vegas still moved the total down a full point after starting with the over-under at 135.5 points. This indicates the sharper bettors have been taking the under and believe there is some value in hoping for a lower-scoring affair.
Houston is currently set to return nearly double the investment on a moneyline bet, something that has drawn a good chunk of public bettors to the upset. At +185 odds, bookmakers are implying just a 35% chance of this outcome occurring, however, but that hasn’t stopped 65% of all moneyline bets to come in on the underdog.
The wise guys are leaning towards Baylor to advance to the championship game, as 85% of the moneyline handle is on the Bears tonight. One would have to risk $2.30 to win $1 on the favorite winning—regardless of the margin—a wager that bookmakers feel has a 70% chance to pay out based on the implied probability.
Seeding: No. 1 West vs. No. 11 East
Start Time: 8:34 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Live Stream: March Madness Live
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Gonzaga has been downright dominant during the 2021 NCAA Tournament, but that isn’t deterring the public from betting on a Cinderella UCLA squad in the Final Four. As of Saturday afternoon, almost two-thirds (63%) of all bets against the spread are on the Bruins to cover the 14.5-point spread.
There’s a clear riff between the sharps and public, however, as the Bulldogs are currently responsible for almost four-fifths (78%) of the cash wagered on the betting line. Given Gonzaga has covered in each of its four prior March Madness contests this year—all as a double-digit favorite—it’s easy to see why the wise guys aren’t afraid to lay the points with this program. It’s also part of why Vegas recently shifted the odds another half-point in the Bulldogs’ direction after putting this Final Four game on the board with a spread of 14.
The total on this game has climbed a tad despite a slight majority of the public liking the under tonight. With just a few hours before the game tips off, 48% of the wagers made on the total are on the over. The line still moved from 146 to 146.5 due in no small part to just 38% of the money taking the under.
This game’s moneyline has a clear split between casual fans hoping for a massive payout on an improbable UCLA upset and more realistic bettors paying a heavy price to back Gonzaga to outright win in the Final Four. The Bulldogs have garnered just 55% of moneyline tickets, but 80% of the cash is taking them to beat the Bruins.
While Gonzaga has a 93% implied probability to win based on the -1360 moneyline odds, the team will only return $1 for each $13.60 risked on it advancing. The Bruins are a huge underdog, but bettors who believe the school—which has just a 12% implied probability to reach the national championship game—can pull the upset will net $7.15 for each $1 staked.
Gonzaga will be favored against either potential title game opponent, although Baylor projects to be the school’s toughest test of the entire tournament. The Bears would be just six-point underdogs in the national title game, which is eight fewer points than the Bulldogs are laying tonight against UCLA.
The closest game in terms of the spread would be the most unlikely matchup to occur, with Houston being slightly favored over UCLA.
If Gonzaga advances and faces Houston in the championship, the program would be double-digit chalk in every March Madness contest it has played this year.
NCAA Tournament odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
These odds imply that Gonzaga has a 66% shot at winning it all this year, capping off first undefeated season since Indiana went 32-0 on the way to a national championship in 1975-76.
Baylor has best chance to play spoiler, with +260 odds implying a 28% probability that the Bears cut down the final set of nets at the end of the 2021 NCAA Tournament.
Houston and UCLA are huge long shots at this juncture, with the Cougars being given an 11% implied probability to win it all and the Bruins a miniscule 3% chance to be crowned champions.
