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Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Tuesday

Jan. 3, 2023
Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Tuesday

ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for January 3rd are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

High Total, Go Under: We all love seeing points scored and when sportsbooks post a big number, it is even easier to talk yourself into an electric game ... it doesn't always work like that. This season, under tickets have cashed 57.4% of the time when the total is north of 235 points, a box the Kings-Jazz game will certainly check and the Celtics-Thunder one may as we trend closer to tip.

Big Home 'Dogs: The Celtics are an elite team and the Thunder ... well, they aren't. That much we know, and the public bettor is not going to be itching to bet the lesser team, even with the big spread. That's been wrong this season. Very wrong. Home teams catching at more than seven points this season have covered 74.1% of the time this season (20-7-1). That rate probably isn't sustainable, but it is a nod to the "any given night" vibe that has prevailed this season (the cover rate for teams in such a position over the previous two seasons: 43.8%).

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Playing Jazz: Utah hosts the Kings in a game with one of the highest opening totals of the entire NBA season at 243 points. This lofty number is driven by both teams ranking in the top seven in offensive rating and top 12 in pace. While the under has some steam, as we mention above, there's also momentum for rostering underrated contributors to this Jazz rotation. Kelly Olynyk can prove atypically productive for a center in that his value stems from steals, assists, and shooting categories. A signature Olynyk line on New Year's Eve included six assists and three steals. We've also championed Malik Beasley a good bit this season as a solid target for scoring props and streaming value. Tonight's matchup is no different, with Beasley expected to get up at least 10 3-pointers in an up-tempo climate with fellow scoring guard Collin Sexton ruled out with an injury.

​​Replacing Poku: The Thunder are missing several rotation contributors to respective injuries, including the absence of Aleksej Pokusevski, which has led to an uptick in minutes and opportunities for rookie wing Jalen Williams. The Santa Clara product is averaging 13.1 points, 4.8 boards, 2.8 dimes with respectable shooting and defensive rates over his last 10 games, all starts for Oklahoma City. Available for the price of a roster spot in over 90% of ESPN leagues, Williams should play around 30 minutes in tonight's matchup with Boston. ​​​

Rui Rising: The Washington Wizards have won five straight thanks in part to the efficient scoring from Rui Hachimura. The young forward has averaged 21.4 points across this winning streak and just delivered 26 points on 18 shots against the Bucks a few nights ago. Such a precedent for scoring success bodes well for this rematch with Milwaukee on Tuesday.

-- Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe

Washington Wizards at Milwaukee Bucks 8 p.m. ET, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Line: Bucks (-8) Money line: Bucks (-345), Wizards (+270) Total: 228.5 points BPI Projected Total: 236.8 points BPI Win%: Bucks (54.6%)

Questionable: George Hill, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Taj Gibson, Bradley Beal, Daniel Gafford Ruled Out: Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: Daniel Gafford (available in 91.9% of leagues) Gafford has started the past seven games and averaged 11.6 PPG and 5.7 RPG in that span, with 1.7 BPG and 77% field goal shooting. He's dealing with a sprained ankle but should be available and productive. -- Eric Karabell

Best bet: Kyle Kuzma over 4.5 assists. Perhaps this is mainly because Bradley Beal has been out, but Kuzma delivered a triple-double in his most recent game, with 11 assists, and had six and seven assists in the games prior to that one. Kuzma's scoring has been a bit erratic recently, but he's definitely passing more, and that works, too. -- Karabell

Best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 33.5 points. While this is a steep number, Antetokounmpo has averaged 32.1 points per game this season. After missing the Bucks' game against the Wizards on January 1, he should be motivated to avenge that loss. Antetokounmpo has scored 33 or more points in four of his previous six games. -- Eric Moody

Boston Celtics at Oklahoma City Thunder 8:00 p.m ET, Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

Line: Celtics (-9) Money line: Celtics (-420), Thunder (+320) Total: 233.5 points BPI Projected Total: 235.4 points BPI Win%: Celtics (83.3%)

Questionable: Robert Williams III Ruled Out: Aleksej Pokusevski, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Ousmane Dieng Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: Al Horford over 15.5 points + rebounds. Horford is an integral part of the Celtics' rotation, and he should be busy against the Thunder with Robert Williams III questionable due to a knee injury management. In terms of rebounds per game, Oklahoma City gives up the second most to centers. This season, Horford has averaged 16 PR per game. -- Moody

Sacramento Kings at Utah Jazz 8 p.m. ET, Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah

Line: Jazz (-3) Money line: Jazz (-155), Kings (+130) Total: 242.5 points BPI Projected Total: 244.7 points BPI Win%: Jazz (65.7%)

Questionable: Malik Monk, Kevin Huerter Ruled Out: Collin Sexton Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Best bet: Mike Conley over 7.5 assists. Conley continues to frustrate fantasy managers with his shooting struggles and lack of initiative in even attempting to shoot, but the assists remain. Conley has 26 assists over the past three games and one of them came against the Kings, who aren't always so concerned with defense. -- Karabell

Best bet: Domantas Sabonis over 41.5 points + assists + rebounds. Sabonis should prosper against a Jazz team that ranks 28th in points allowed per 100 possessions. He's surpassed 41.5 PAR in two of his last three games. This season, the Jazz have given up a high number of points, rebounds, and assists to centers. -- Moody

Fantasy streamer: Nickeil Alexander-Walker (rostered in 1.2% of ESPN leagues) is on the streaming radar with Colin Sexton ruled out. This season, he averages 17.7 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per 40 minutes. -- Moody


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