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Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Thursday

Jan. 5, 2023
Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Thursday

ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for January 5th are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

Streaming Steven: There is a rebounding force and standout value on DraftKings tonight found at just $5,700 while also available in free agency in nearly half of ESPN leagues. This player is Steven Adams of the Memphis Grizzlies, as the grizzled vet is tied for third in the NBA with 19.4 rebounding opportunities per game. Facing a young Orlando frontcourt sets up Adams as a strong candidate for double-digit boards and as a value for double-double props.

Going Deep: A light four-game slate asks that fantasy managers find value deeper into rotations given the limited player pool. Looking at Orlando's rotation, for instance, we find Gary Harris (99% available) just started for the Magic last night and tallied an efficient 18 points on 10 shots. Markelle Fultz (71%) is also positioned to start against the Grizzlies tonight and makes for a solid source of assists.

Brown and Bones: The Nuggets the Clippers in an important conference matchup. Denver has ascended to the top of the West thanks in part to strong contributions from glue guys such as Bruce Brown (80% available) and Bones Hyland (85%). Brown won't wow you with his scoring production, but he does a bit of everything else. Hyland, meanwhile, has scored at least 16 in four straight and is often tasked with carrying the second unit offense.

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Targeting Tim: Tim Hardaway Jr. has lofted at least 11 3-pointers in three of the past five games and should prove busy again tonight for a depleted Dallas rotation. After all, THJ has averaged nearly 37 minutes and 17 points over his last seven games, making him a viable target for scoring and shooting props in addition to claiming real streaming value as a free agent in 85% of ESPN leagues.

Happy Home Crowd: There are only four games on the docket tonight, but two of them have the home team catching more than five points, a spot that has been a printing press up to this point. This season, when a home team is getting more than a 5-point underdog, they have covered 63.1% of the time and have yield a +37.9-unit return for those gutsy enough to bet them on the moneyline.

Happy Home Crowd 2.0: Those two big home 'dogs I just mentioned (Orlando and Houston) both played last night, so you should stay away, right? Wrong. Big home underdogs (again, more than a 5-point spread) on the second night of a back-to-back are 6-2-2 ATS this season. Potentially more interesting is the fact that under tickets have cashed in eight of those 10 games.

-- Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe

Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks 7:30 p.m. ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas

Line: Celtics (-3) Money line: Celtics (-145), Mavericks (+122) Total: 230 points BPI Projected Total: 235.7 points BPI Win%: Celtics (62%)

Best bet: Jayson Tatum over 42.5 total points + assists + rebounds. Tatum and the Celtics are looking for a bounce-back performance after two straight subpar (by his standards) games from Tatum in two straight Celtics losses. The Nets have caught them in the standings, and the Celtics need a win. Tatum has a history of playing well against the Mavericks. In their meeting earlier this season, Tatum popped for 37 points, 13 rebounds and 5 assists. -- Andre Snellings

Best bet: Marcus Smart under 10.5 points. Some will assume greater motivation for Smart and a big scoring night after he was tossed from Monday's stunning loss to the Thunder after his second technical. Smart isn't a scorer and he's always motivated. He has scored in double-digits once in his past six contests. There seems little reason to expect a scoring outburst here. -- Eric Karabell

Best bet: Luka Doncic over 34.5 points. Doncic is in a scoring zone right now, the likes of which I've rarely seen. He's scored 35 or more in five of his last six games, including the last four in a row, while averaging 44.5 PPG in that stretch. Doncic also had a huge game the last time he faced the Celtics this season, dropping 42 points on 17-of-28 shooting. -- Snellings

Memphis Grizzlies at Orlando Magic 7 p.m. ET, Amway Center, Orlando, Florida

Line: Grizzlies (-7) Money line: Grizzlies (-278), Magic (+222) Total: 232.5 points BPI Projected Total: 237.9 points BPI Win%: Grizzlies (72.2%)

Fantasy Streamer: Terrence Ross (available in 98.4% of leagues). The Magic get Franz Wagner back tonight, but they will still be without frontcourt members Bol Bol and Mo Wagner. Presumably, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner could spend more time at the big forward spot, leaving more availability for perimeter/swing options to get minutes. Ross is an instant offense guy, and scored 18 points with 5 rebounds, 3 3-pointers, 3 assists, 1 steal and 1 block in 22 minutes on Wednesday night. -- Snellings

Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets 8 p.m. ET, Toyota Center, Houston, Texas

Line: Jazz (-7) Money line: Jazz (-267), Rockets (+215) Total: 230.5 points BPI Projected Total: 243.9 points BPI Win%: Jazz (74.7%)

Fantasy streamer: Malik Beasley (available in 53.4% of leagues). When in doubt, go with Beasley. If the 3-pointers are falling, then he will deliver a strong night for fantasy managers. Most of the time, the 3-pointers are falling. Beasley topped 30 fantasy points in his past two games. In the two games prior to that, he did not. He is one of my favorite sleepers because there are few reserves we can count on to attempt 8-to-12 3-pointers per night, but he seems to do this every game. -- Eric Karabell

Best bet: Jordan Clarkson over 22.5 points. Clarkson has scored 22 or more points in six consecutive games, as he continues to enjoy career-bests in field goal and free throw attempts playing in an offense that desperately needs his scoring. The Rockets guards, by the way, pay only some attention to defense. Clarkson wasn't scoring as much when he faced Houston in October, but he averaged nearly 22 PPG since the start of November. -- Karabell

Best bet: Lauri Markkanen over 33.5 combined points + rebounds. Markkanen has eclipsed 33.5 points + rebounds in six of his past seven games, including five straight. He's averaged 30.4 PPG and 9.3 RPG during that stretch and is facing a Rockets squad that has the third-worst team defensive rating in the NBA. -- Snellings

LA Clippers at Denver Nuggets 10 p.m. ET, Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado

Line: Nuggets (-5) Money line: Nuggets (-190), Clippers (+158) Total: 229 points BPI Projected Total: 232.1 points BPI Win%: Nuggets (60.2%)


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