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Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Thursday

Dec. 29, 2022
Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Thursday

ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for December 29th are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

Scoring in San Antonio: The Knicks enter this game as a sizable favorite and that has been a strong indicator of high point totals thus far this season. In games in which New York is favored by at least three points, overs are 8-2 and that's not a bad trend to take into a game against a Spurs team that has seen eight of their past nine go over the projected total.

Riding the ... Rockets?: Betting against the Mavs after the Luka magic from Tuesday night is not for the faint of heart, but hear me out. The Mavs are a woeful 2-12-1 ATS this season when giving at least six points, a stretch that includes six outright losses, and the Rockets have been passable against teams that slow tempo. Since the beginning of November, Houston is 6-5 ATS against bottom-10 teams in offensive pace (Dallas is the second slowest team in the Association) and 6-9 ATS against the rest of the league.

​​​Thunder Up: Oklahoma City rookie Jalen Williams is rostered in just three percent of ESPN leagues despite averaging 13 points, eight boards, and 1.5 combined steals and blocks over the past week. The Santa Clara product is up over 30 MPG during the last week and is expected to play a large role against the Knicks tonight with Aleksej Pokusevski sidelined by a leg injury. ​​​

Quick Knick: Immanuel Quickley (95% available in ESPN leagues) tends to thrive whenever he plays a larger role in the Knicks' rotation. The speedy Kentucky product just played 50 minutes in an overtime loss to Dallas and is up to 16.2 points, 4.4 dimes, and three 3-pointers per game over his past five games. With RJ Barrett ruled out due to a finger injury ahead of tonight's matchup versus the Spurs, Quickley is expected to play plenty against a team allowing 51.4 DraftKings points per game to point guards, the sixth-highest allowance in the league. It's also worth taking a look at scoring guard Quentin Grimes (94%), with the second-year talent fresh from a 33-point outburst.

​Hornet Values: Charlotte lists Kelly Oubre Jr. as doubtful to play tonight due to a left hand injury for tonight's game against the Thunder. Oubre is likely the most underrated 20 PPG scorer in the league, which could mean the offensive void he leaves behind could go under the radar for tonight's slate. The likes of Gordon Hayward (44% available in ESPN leagues) and P.J. Washington (33%) make for strong streaming and DFS targets given what should be surges in usage and minutes in a tighter Charlotte rotation.

-- Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe

Oklahoma City Thunder at Charlotte Hornets 7:00 p.m ET, Spectrum Center, Charlotte

Line: Hornets (-1) Money line: Thunder (-110), Hornets (-110) Total: 239 points BPI Projected Total: 238.5 points BPI Win%: Hornets (64.2%)

Injuries

Fantasy Streamer: Jalen McDaniels (available in 92.9% of leagues) is a boom-or-bust candidate, but with Kelly Oubre (hand) doubtful, McDaniels has a good chance to boom. In his last 15 games, he's scored at least 12 in eight of them but single digits in the others. On Tuesday, with Oubre out, McDaniels popped for 12 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists and three 3-pointers in 26 minutes. -- Andre Snellings

Fantasy Streamer: Mason Plumlee (available in 61.8% of leagues) continues to produce on a consistent basis for the Hornets and fantasy managers, averaging 29.1 fantasy points this season, and topping that figure in the past three games with 47, 32 and 37 points. We can count on him for rebounds every night, and tonight should be no different. -- Eric Karabell

Best Bet: LaMelo Ball over 24.5 points. Ball has scored at least 21 points in all eight games since returning from injury, averaging 25.0 PPG in that span, and is clearly the primary option for the Hornets. On Tuesday, he "only" scored 21 on the second night of a back-to-back where his legs were visibly not under him when shooting. Which leads to the key stat: shots attempted. He took 25 shots on Tuesday, and has averaged 24.8 FGA in his last four games. Shooting that often, his shot doesn't even have to be particularly efficient for him to go over 24.5 points. -- Snellings

Best bet: Josh Giddey over 21.5 points+assists. Giddey is in an excellent spot against the Hornets on Thursday night. Charlotte ranks 25th in points allowed per 100 possessions. Giddey averages 14.6 points and 5.6 rebounds per game this season. Against the Hornets, he's in a great position to exceed those averages. -- Eric Moody

Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers 7:00 p.m ET, Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis

Line: Cavaliers (-5) Money line: Cavaliers (-205), Pacers (+170) Total: 223.5 points BPI Projected Total: 231.5 points BPI Win%: Cavaliers (66.2%)

Injuries

Best bet: Jarrett Allen over 9.5 rebounds. This season, Allen has averaged 10.1 rebounds per game. Three of his last five games have seen him surpass 9.5 rebounds. Centers have been able to pull down the second most rebounds per game against the Pacers. -- Moody

LA Clippers at Boston Celtics 7:30 p.m ET, TD Garden, Boston

Line: Celtics (-6.5) Money line: Clippers (+185), Celtics (-225) Total: 228 points BPI Projected Total: 227.9 points BPI Win%: Celtics (76.6%)

Injuries

Best Bet: Kawhi Leonard over 20.5 points. I love this matchup, particularly with everyone healthy, showcasing two of the premiere wing/forward combos in the league against one another. With no back-to-backs for the next week, Leonard should be available and ready for a big game. He's alternated big scoring outputs for the past few weeks, scoring 25 points, then 19, then 31, then 16, then 28 and then 15 last game. He's due to go big. More importantly, in the last two games he's played 34 and 35 minutes, indicating his restrictions may be gone and he'd be free to start to play to his typical standards. -- Snellings

Best Bet: Kawhi Leonard over 6.5 rebounds. I think Leonard tops 20.5 points as well, but I feel a bit safer with the rebounds, because he's been over this number in seven of nine games since returning to the lineup. Leonard is so talented, he could really produce whatever numbers he desires, even against the Celtics. Expect something like 25 points and 8 boards. -- Karabell

Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors 7:30 p.m ET, Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario

Line: Grizzlies (-3) Money line: Grizzlies (-155), Raptors (+130) Total: 229 points BPI Projected Total: 234.1 points BPI Win%: Grizzlies (54.1%)

Injuries

Best bet: Pascal Siakam over 25.5 points. Siakam has been scorching for a couple weeks now, averaging 35.8 PPG in his last five games with at least 26 points in all five games. Siakam dominates by creating mismatches against opposing centers, bringing them out to the 3-point line and either knocking down shots or initiating Giannis-like drives to the rim. He's too quick for Steven Adams, and even Jaren Jackson will have trouble, so Siakam should stay hot on Thursday. -- Snellings

Best bet: Steven Adams over 9.5 rebounds. Three of Adams' last four games have seen him surpass 9.5 rebounds. He faces a Raptors team that has one of the worst effective field goal percentages (51.3%) in the league. Adams should have plenty of rebounding opportunities. This season, he has averaged 10.3 rebounds per game. -- Moody

New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs 8:00 p.m ET, AT&T Center, San Antonio

Line: Knicks (-5) Money line: Knicks (-205), Spurs (+170) Total: 225.5 points BPI Projected Total: 236.7 points BPI Win%: Knicks (69.8%)

Injuries

Best bet: Quentin Grimes over 22.5 points+assists+rebounds. The Spurs have struggled defensively all season, so Grimes is in a great position. RJ Barrett is already ruled out and Jalen Brunson is questionable. Grimes should continue to be provided a high number of minutes. He averages 14.3 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.1 assists per 40 minutes. -- Moody

Best Bet: Julius Randle over 45.5 total points + assists + rebounds. Randle has been cooking of late, and with RJ Barrett out and Jalen Brunson questionable, he could be asked to carry an even larger role against a largely overmatched Spurs defense that ranks last in the NBA in team Defensive Rating. Randle has averaged 30.8 PPG, 12.8 RPG and 3.8 APG in his last four outings (47.4 average PAR), while going over 45.5 in three of the four games. -- Snellings

Best bet: Mitchell Robinson over 19.5 points+rebounds. While Robinson isn't known for his scoring abilities, he faces a Spurs team that has given up the second-most points to centers this season. Over the last two games, Robinson has surpassed 19.5 PR. -- Moody

Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks 8:30 p.m ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas

Line: Mavericks (-10) Money line: Rockets (+400), Mavericks (-550) Total: 225 points BPI Projected Total: 239.1 points BPI Win%: Mavericks (81.8%)

Injuries

Best bet: Luka Doncic over 32.5 points. Doncic has been phenomenal this season averaging an astounding 33.6 points per game this season. He's scored 50 or more points in two of his last three games. The Rockets' defense ranks 28th in points allowed per 100 possessions, making it hard to bet against Doncic. He scored 50 points against them back on December 23rd. -- Moody

1. Dallas Mavericks (124.5) 2.Charlotte Hornets (121.3) 3. New York Knicks (121.2)

1. LA Clippers (110.1) 2. Indiana Pacers (114.6) 3. Houston Rockets (114.6)

1. Dallas Mavericks (81.8%) 2. Boston Celtics (76.6%) 3. New York Knicks (69.8%)


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