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Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Saturday

Jan. 7, 2023
Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Saturday

ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for January 7th are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

Tight Spread, Fade Points: More often than not, sports betting is a game of micro edges. Every once in a while, a lasting trend will overwhelm, but usually it's a matter of grinding out the small advantages and that is the case tonight. There are a handful of coin flip games tonight where the spread is no more than three points and in spots like that this season, under tickets have cashed 56.9% of the time. You won't get rich cashing at that rate, but I've never seen someone go broke making a profit.

Low Totaled Underdogs: The Heat/Suns game is shaping up to be the lowest total on the board, but the Knicks/Raptors is also likely to close below the 225-ish point total that has become normal in this era of basketball. Well, underdogs have covered 56.4% of the time in low total games (under 220 points) and have returned an overall profit just north of five units this season if you bet them all moneyline.

Living up to the spread: The Nuggets are 7-6 ATS this season (unders: 8-4-1) when favored by more than five points. Those trends work in contrast to their numbers when favored by fewer than five points: 6-7 ATS with unders going 5-8. Again, we aren't talking massive trends, but with Donovan Mitchell already ruled out and Darius Garland banged up at the very least (hasn't played in a week and is questionable with his thumb injury), don't shy away from expecting big things from Denver.

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Find your center: Several standout streaming options have surfaced for Fridays' 11-game slate. With Clint Capela still dealing with a calf injury, Atlanta's Onyeka Okongwu (80% available in ESPN leagues) faces the Lakers' Thomas Bryant (78%) in a matchup of undervalued centers. Bryant has thrived since shifting to the starting lineup with Anthony Davis ailing, averaging 15.5 points and 10 rebounds on stellar scoring efficiency over his last 10 games.

Waiver wings: The Charlotte Hornets won't have Gordon Hayward or Kelly Oubre Jr. in the lineup against the Bucks on Friday evening, vaulting dynamic defender Jalen McDaniels (92% available in ESPN leagues) into a larger role. Another rewarding and potentially more enduring move would be adding San Antonio's Josh Richardson (98%). With Devin Vassell undergoing a knee procedure, both Richardson and rookie Jeremy Sochan (95%) could emerge with larger roles in the coming games.

Trez time: As he deals with a lingering foot ailment, Joel Embiid and his elite two-way production won't be on the floor for the 76ers tonight as they host the Bulls. One name to watch in the wake of Embiid's absence is Montrezl Harrell, who is a free agent in nearly three-quarters of ESPN leagues and is coming off a strong game in place of Embiid that included 19 points and four blocks. The rim protection won't always be so nice, but it's clear Harrell can handle scoring and rebounding duties against a Bulls team that struggled to protect the paint. Conversely, building around Chicago's Nikola Vucevic at just $7,300 on DraftKings is appealing given he won't have to deal with Embiid.

Sourcing assists: In an era with so many heliocentric superstars controlling the show, finding assists on the waiver wire can prove challenging. A continuously underrated productive passer has been Killian Hayes (80% available in ESPN leagues) of the Pistons, who has at least 10 assists in his last two full games and is positioned to produce tonight against a Spurs team ceding 51.3 DraftKings points per game to point guards, the sixth-highest allowance in the league. We also find Monte Morris (47% available in ESPN leagues) excelling as the Wizards' top distributor with Bradley Beal sidelined. The pure point guard has at least six dimes in four of his past five games.

-- Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe

Boston Celtics at San Antonio Spurs 6 p.m. ET, AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas

Line: Celtics (13) Money line: Celtics (-900), Spurs (+600) Total: 234.5 points BPI Projected Total: 238.2 points BPI Win%: Celtics (90.7%)

Questionable: Keldon Johnson Ruled Out: Devin Vassell Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: Romeo Langford (rostered in 0.2% of ESPN leagues) Langford is on the streaming radar in deeper leagues with Devin Vassell set to miss a few weeks. The Spurs' injury woes continued with Keldon Johnson leaving Friday's game with a left hamstring injury. Langford should be able to play more minutes as a result of all the injuries. He has averaged 14.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2.0 assists per 40 minutes this season. -- Eric Moody

Best bet: Jaylen Brown over 35.5 points + assists + rebounds. The Spurs are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 30th in points allowed per 100 possessions and allowing the most point per game to shooting guards. Brown has averaged 37.3 PAR per game this season. -- Moody

Utah Jazz at Chicago Bulls 8 p.m ET, United Center, Chicago, Illinois

Line: Jazz (-1.5) Money line: Jazz (-125), Bulls (+105) Total: 239 points BPI Projected Total: 243 points BPI Win%: Jazz (55%)

Questionable: Alex Caruso Ruled Out: Collin Sexton, Tony Bradley, Javonte Green Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: Kelly Olynyk (rostered in 36.8% of ESPN leagues) Olynyk has been on the streaming radar since returning from an injury on December 28. He has scored19 or more fantasy points in four of his past five games. Don't overlook him if you're looking for a streamer at the center position in deeper formats. -- Moody

Best bet: Lauri Markkanen over 37.5 points + assists + rebounds. Markkanen is having a career season, averaging 34.8 PAR per game. I'll be shocked if Markkanen fails to deliver an epic performance against his former team. -- Moody

New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks 8 p.m. ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas

Line: Mavericks (7) Money line: Mavericks (-278), Pelicans (+222) Total: 225 points BPI Projected Total: 234.6 points BPI Win%: Mavericks (63.9%)

Questionable: Luka Doncic Ruled Out: Josh Green, Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: Tim Hardaway Jr. (rostered in 16.6% of ESPN leagues) Hardaway can be a solid source of points and triples for managers in need. His success is often determined by his field goal percentage, but he has scored 20 or more fantasy points in four of his past six games. -- Moody

Fantasy streamer: Naji Marshall (rostered in 2.6% of ESPN leagues) Marshall scored career high 23 points on Friday night against the Nets along with nine rebounds, one assist and three steals. He is a viable streamer while Zion Williamson is out with a hamstring injury. -- Moody

Best bet: Luka Doncic over 33.5 points. Doncic's streak of six straight games with 30 or more points was snapped on Thursday night against the Celtics. But there is a strong chance he bounces back against the Pelicans on Saturday. Doncic has averaged 34.0 PPG this season. -- Moody

Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors 8:30 p.m. ET, Chase Center, San Francisco, California

Line: Warriors (-6.5) Money line: Warriors (-250), Magic (+206) Total: 231.5 points BPI Projected Total: 236.9 points BPI Win%: Warriors (83.3%)

Ruled Out: Andrew Wiggins, Stephen Curry, James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga, Bol Bol Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: Kevon Looney (rostered in 14.2% of leagues) Looney is in a great spot against the Magic on Saturday night with James Wiseman and JaMychal Green out. He has scored eight or more points and racked up 15 or more rebound in his past two games. -- Moody

Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings 10 p.m. ET, Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California

Line: Kings (-8.5) Money line: Kings (-345), Lakers (+270) Total: 242 points BPI Projected Total: 247.1 points BPI Win%: Kings (64.8%)

Questionable: Damian Jones, Troy Brown Jr., Malik Monk Ruled Out: Lonnie Walker IV, Austin Reaves, Anthony Davis Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: Patrick Beverley (rostered in 9.4% of ESPN leagues) Beverley is an intriguing streamer for the Lakers, who are on the second night of a back-to-back. LeBron James or Russell Westbrook will likely get a rest day, which bodes well for Beverley. He has scored 20 or more fantasy points in eight of his past nine games, including three with 30 points or more. -- Moody

Fantasy streamer: Terence Davis (rostered in 0.4% of ESPN leagues) Davis could find himself on the streaming radar in deeper formats for Saturday's game with Malik Monk questionable. Davis scored 27 fantasy points the last time he played over 20 minutes on Dec. 14. He has averaged 20.6 points, 7.5 rebounds and 3.8 assists per 40 minutes this season. -- Moody

Fantasy streamer: Thomas Bryant (rostered in 23.9% of ESPN leagues) Bryant should continue to be streamed while Anthony Davis is out. He has scored 40 or more fantasy points in three of his past four games, -- Moody

Best bet: Kevin Huerter over 22.5 points + assists + rebounds. Huerter is well-positioned for success against a struggling Lakers team. He has surpassed 22.5 PAR in three of his past four games, -- Moody


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