Luka Doncic has dominated in almost every statistical category over the past week, a good sign for fantasy managers and bettors. AP Photo/Darren Abate
ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for January 2nd are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
Microwave Men: Instant offense from confident scorers can help in both real and fantasy hoops. The Pistons' Alec Burks (93% available in ESPN leagues), for instance, has capably answered the call to produce in the wake of injuries and suspensions depleting Detroit's rotation. Burks has averaged 19.5 points and 3.8 3-pointers over his last four games and should again have the green light to find his shot against the Trail Blazers in Portland this evening. With Cleveland likely without Darius Garland, playmaking wing Caris LeVert (59%) has scored 42 points across his last two games and should cruise past 30 minutes in a matchup with the Bulls on Monday.
The Q Kids: The Knicks are turning to a backcourt youth movement with both Quentin Grimes (92% available in ESPN leagues) and Immanuel Quickley (87%) thriving in bigger roles. Grimes has been starting over Evan Fournier at shooting guard for New York for more than a month now, with the second-year sharpshooter averaging 14.7 points, 3.0 3-pointers, and respectable rebounding and defensive rates over his last 10 games. Quickley's ascent is more recent, with the Kentucky product averaging 20.6 points over his last six games. Injuries to RJ Barrett and Jalen Brunson have heavily influenced Quickley's leap in opportunities, but with Barrett still sidelined for tonight's matchup with the Suns, the fantasy fun should continue for a few more nights.
Getting Gary: The Raptors have endured a somewhat disappointing first few months of the season, with injuries and inconsistent play as driving factors. One recent bright spot, however, is the play of 3-and-D wing Gary Trent Jr. (35% available in ESPN leagues). A worthy target for scoring and shooting props against the Pacers this evening, "GTJ" has averaged 25 points and nearly four 3-pointers over his last three outings.
Brooklyn block party: The Nets have surged back into contention in a tough conference thanks in part to becoming much better on the defensive end. The return and revival of Ben Simmons as a versatile defensive force is undeniably a key factor, while Nic Claxton, still a free agent in a fifth of ESPN leagues, has surprisingly become an elite rim protector. Claxton leads the entire lead in block percentage, swatting an absurd 7.4 percent of opponents' two-point attempts. With Claxton also leading the NBA in field goal and true shooting percentage. An ideal two-way vertical athlete for Brooklyn's star driven identity, Claxton is in a great spot tonight against a Spurs team that ranks last in defensive rating and 27th in defensive rebounding percentage over the past 15 games.
Out on the Dinosaurs: The Pacers operate at the fifth fastest pace this season and that is a good spot to be against a slow Raptors team that is just 3-6 outright in their nine most up-tempo games (five of those losses have come by at least nine points). But what happens if Toronto dictates pace? No luck. The Pacers are a respectable 5-3 in their eight slowest games (four of those wins coming by at least eight points).
Points with Pelicans: The projected point totals in Pelican games are always high ... and, in this spot, not high enough. Overs are 10-3 this season when New Orleans is an underdog, a spot they find themselves in tonight against the 76ers.
Odds and Ends: A few additional betting trends that deserve your consideration: The Mavericks are 3-8 ATS as road favorites this season. The Bulls are just 6-15 outright this season when the spread is less than five points. Unders are 13-5 when the Hornets play in a game with a spread of less than five points.
-- Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Phoenix Suns at New York Knicks 3 p.m. ET, Madison Square Garden, New York
Line: Knicks (-1) Money line: Knicks (-120), Suns (+100) Total: 219.5 points BPI Projected Total: 235.2 points BPI Win%: Knicks (59.4%)
Ruled Out: Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett, Cameron Johnson, Landry Shamet, Cameron Payne, Devin Booker Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Los Angeles Lakers at Charlotte Hornets 7 p.m. ET, Spectrum Center, Charlotte, North Carolina
Line: Hornets (-1) Money line: Hornets (-125), Lakers (+105) Total: 242.5 points BPI Projected Total: 244.5 points BPI Win%: Lakers (56%)
Questionable: LeBron James, Lonnie Walker IV Ruled Out: Anthony Davis Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Thomas Bryant (rostered in 17.8% of ESPN leagues) will continue to be a streamer while Anthony Davis is out until his roster percentage rises. He has scored 40 or more fantasy points in two of his last three games. During his eight starts, Bryant has averaged 14.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game. He faces a Hornets team that ranks 26th in points allowed per 100 possessions. -- Eric Moody
Fantasy streamer: Jalen McDaniels (rostered in 6.8% of ESPN leagues) continues to be on the streaming radar with Kelly Oubre Jr. already ruled out of Monday night's game. Five of McDaniels' last six games have seen him score 22 or more fantasy points. This season, power forwards have performed very well against the Lakers. Los Angeles also ranks 24th in points allowed per 100 possessions. -- Moody
Best bet: LaMelo Ball over 31.5 points + assists. Ball has surpassed 31.5 PA in three of his last four games. The Lakers give the fifth most points per game and sixth most assists per game to point guards this season. Against Los Angeles on December 23rd, Ball finished with 23 points and eight assists. -- Moody
Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers 7 p.m. ET, Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, Ohio
Line: Cavaliers (-4) Money line: Cavaliers (-170), Bulls (+143) Total: 222.5 points BPI Projected Total: 231.9 points BPI Win%: Cavaliers (69.1%)
Questionable: Tony Bradley, Javonte Green, Alex Caruso, Evan Mobley, Darius Garland Ruled Out: Derrick Jones Jr. Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Alex Caruso (rostered in 9.3% of ESPN leagues) is on the streaming radar in deeper formats. After returning from his shoulder injury, he played 20 or more minutes in consecutive games and scored 23 or more fantasy points. In category formats, fantasy managers can view Caruso as a steal specialist. -- Moody
Fantasy streamer: Caris LeVert (rostered in 41.5% of ESPN leagues) is a solid streamer with Darius Garland listed as doubtful for Monday's game due to a right thumb sprain. Due to Garland's absence, LeVert started on Saturday and finished with 23 points, seven rebounds, four assists, and a steal. On Monday night, fantasy managers can expect a similar performance. --Moody
Best bet:
Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers 7 p.m. ET, Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
Line: Pacers (-1.5) Money line: Pacers (-125), Raptors (+105) Total: 232.5 points BPI Projected Total: 236.4 points BPI Win%: Pacers (60.5%)
Questionable: Fred VanVleet Ruled Out: Precious Achiuwa, Otto Porter Jr. Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Chris Boucher (rostered in 41.2% of ESPN leagues) is on the streaming radar with Precious Achiuwa questionable with a right ankle ligament tear. This season, he's been an inconsistent fantasy option. Boucher averages 18.6 points and 10.8 rebounds per 40 minutes. -- Moody
New Orleans Pelicans at Philadelphia 76ers 7 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Line: Pelicans (-5) Money line: 76ers (-210), Pelicans (+175) Total: 228.5 points BPI Projected Total: 232.8 points BPI Win%: 76ers (73.5%)
Ruled Out: Larry Nance Jr., Brandon Ingram Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Herbert Jones (rostered in 27.7% of ESPN leagues) returned to the fold for the Pelicans on Saturday after missing the last three games due to COVID protocols and apparently lost 10 pounds during his time away. He finished with 20 fantasy points against the Grizzlies. In points or category formats, Jones is a viable streamer for fantasy managers due to his ability to contribute to multiple statistical categories. -- Moody
San Antonio Spurs at Brooklyn Nets 7:30 p.m. ET, Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York
Line: Nets (-12.5) Money line: Nets (-1000), Spurs (+650) Total: 235.5 points BPI Projected Total: 245.6 points BPI Win%: Nets (84.8%)
Questionable: Devin Vassell Ruled Out: Joe Harris, Keita Bates-Diop Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Kyrie Irving over 31.5 points + assists. Irving has averaged 34.9 points and assists in the past nine games. He should be able to maintain his pace against a Spurs team that allows high PPG and APG to point guards. -- Moody
Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets 8 p.m. ET, Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
Line: Mavericks (-7.5) Money line: Mavericks (-320), Rockets (+250) Total: 227.5 points BPI Projected Total: 239.7 points BPI Win%: Mavericks (73.5%)
Questionable: Alperen Sengun, Jae'Sean Tate Ruled Out: Josh Green, Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Luka Doncic over 2.5 blocks + steals. Instead of targeting points, assists, and rebounds, bettors should consider blocks and steals instead. Doncic has surpassed 2.5 blocks + steals in five of his last six games. On a per-game basis, the Rockets give up a lot in these two categories. -- Moody
Best bet: Tim Hardaway Jr. over 3.5 3-pointers made. Hardaway Jr. hasn't shot the ball well over the last four games, but he has made three or more triples in three of them. The Rockets give up the fourth most triples per game to shooting guards this season. Furthermore, Houston ranks 27th in points allowed per 100 possessions while allowing opponents an effective field goal percentage of 55.8%, the fourth highest in the league. This is one plus odds bet on Monday's slate that I like. -- Moody
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves 8 p.m. ET, Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Line: Nuggets (-1.5) Money line: Nuggets (-130), Timberwolves Total: 232.5 points BPI Projected Total: 240.7 points BPI Win%: Nuggets (52.1%)
Questionable: Jamal Murray Ruled Out: Jeff Green, Taurean Prince, Jordan McLaughlin, Karl-Anthony Towns Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Atlanta Hawks at Golden State Warriors 10 p.m. ET, Chase Center, San Francisco, California
Line: Warriors (-1.5) Money line: Warriors (-125), Hawks (+105) Total: 236.5 points BPI Projected Total: 238.4 points BPI Win%: Hawks (50.1%)
Ruled Out: Clint Capela, De'Andre Hunter, James Wiseman, JaMychal Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Andrew Wiggins, Stephen Curry Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: AJ Griffin (rostered in 1.8% of ESPN leagues) continues to help fill the void left by De'Andre Hunter who is questionable for Monday's game due to a left ankle sprain. In the Hawks' last three games, Hunter has been absent. Despite playing more than 24 minutes in each of them, Griffin has only scored 20 or more fantasy points once. He is someone to consider streaming in deeper formats. Griffin can also be deployed as a three-pointer specialist in category formats. -- Moody
Fantasy streamer: Kevon Looney (rostered in 12.8% of ESPN leagues) is a very good streamer for Monday's slate. The absence of Jonathan Kuminga, JaMychal Green, and James Wiseman bodes well for the fantasy value of Looney. This season, Looney averages 11.3 points, 13.7 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per 40 minutes. -- Moody
Best bet: Jordan Poole over 37.5 points + assists + rebounds. Poole has averaged 35.1 PAR over his last games. While Stephen Curry is sidelined, he should continue to feast. Poole is in a very good spot because nobody likes playing at home more than the Warriors. -- Moody
Detroit Pistons at Portland Trail Blazers 10 p.m. ET, Moda Center, Portland, Oregon
Line: Blazers (-9.5) Money line: Blazers (-455), Pistons (+345) Total: 232.5 points BPI Projected Total: 242.8 points BPI Win%: Blazers (77.4%)
Questionable: Keon Johnson, Jusuf Nurkic Ruled Out: Killian Hayes, Nassir Little, Justise Winslow Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Miami Heat at LA Clippers 10 p.m. ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California
Line: Clippers (-2.5) Money line: Clippers (-145), Heat (+122) Total: 219 points BPI Projected Total: 223.1 points BPI Win%: Clippers (68.8%)
Questionable: Nicolas Batum, Duncan Robinson, Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, Jimmy Butler Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Victor Oladipo (rostered in 9.6% of ESPN leagues) continues to be a solid streamer considering how frustrating Miami's injury report has been this season. Due to their respective injuries, Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson, and Caleb Martin are all questionable. The role of Oladipo is likely to expand. -- Moody
