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Fantasy basketball tips and betting picks for Tuesday: Will LeBron break all-time scoring record?

Feb. 7, 2023
Fantasy basketball tips and betting picks for Tuesday: Will LeBron break all-time scoring record?

ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN's proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Feb. 7 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

"Next man up" is often considered a football saying, but it's become applicable to the NBA in this era of injury management and star-driven trades. With the depleted Brooklyn Nets hosting the LA Clippers last night, we saw yet another offensive masterclass from second-year guard Cam Thomas, who has scored 91 points over his past two games.

Currently the most-added player in ESPN leagues over the past week, Thomas is still available in 70% of leagues. As the Nets host the Phoenix Suns this evening in Devin Booker's return to the floor, it remains wise to make room for Thomas and teammate Edmond Sumner in lineups.

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Who else could be the next? Let's stick with the ramifications of the Kyrie Irving blockbuster. Josh Green (98% available in ESPN leagues) scored a career-high 29 points in last night's win over the Utah Jazz and even rookie teammate Jaden Hardy (99%), once projected to be a top-five pick, delivered a career-best 29 in the win. Green is likely to retain a large role as the team seeks to replace Dorian Finney-Smith's two-way contributions.

Since these young talents are being unleashed in the wake of a significant trade, we can speculate as to what situations could change before Thursday's deadline. For instance, DraftKings lists center Mason Plumlee's odds to be dealt from the Charlotte Hornets at -280, evidence that rookie Mark Williams could be thrust into a major role in the matter of a Woj Tweet.

Pivoting to the prop market tonight, it's fun to see LeBron James' point total sit at 32.5 on DraftKings. It's difficult for me to imagine the "King" doesn't deliver the 36 points required for history.

-- Jim McCormick

Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers 10 p.m. ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California

Records (Against the Spread) Thunder: 25-28 (33-20-0) Lakers: 25-29 (24-28-2)

Line: Lakers (-7) BPI Projection: Lakers (124.6-119.2) Money Line: Thunder (+228), Lakers (-285) BPI Projected winner: Lakers (68.4%) Total: 237.5 points BPI Projected Total: 243.8 points

Injury Report: Thunder: Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, (GTD - Ankle); Luguentz Dort, (OUT - Hamstring); Aleksej Pokusevski, (OUT - Lower Leg); Chet Holmgren, (OUT - Foot) Lakers: Anthony Davis, (GTD - Foot); Austin Reaves, (GTD - Hamstring); LeBron James, (GTD - Ankle) Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: LeBron James over 32.5 points. James needs 36 points to surpass Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as the NBA's all-time leading scorer. He faces a young Thunder club that gave up 141 points on Monday. James has always had a flair for the dramatic and while he hasn't hit 30 points in his past three contests, he has topped 40 points in three of his past 10 games. He's getting the record tonight and it's not a bad idea to wager on another triple-double (at +548), too. -- Karabell

Trend: LeBron has played 13 games against top-10 pace teams but has hit the 36-point number in just three of those games. If you're investing in other markets, Lebron has handed out at least five assists and totaled seven-plus boards in 11 of those games. -- Soppe

Trend: The Lakers are 7-2 ATS when LeBron scores at least 36 points and overs are also 7-2 in those instances. -- Soppe

Trend: You know what LeBron brings to the table, but what about the Thunder? Are they a good spot for a player to put up a big number? Not so much. Just twice since the New Year (17 games) has a player gone off for 36-plus points: Steph Curry on January 30 and Klay Thompson (without Curry active) last night. Of course, the Splash Brothers, like LeBron, have a strong usage rate and consistent role, so they share that, but how they get there isn't up the LeBron alley: Curry made a season-high eight triples and produced his second most efficient shooting game of the season in terms of both effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage. Thompson buried 12 triples and set season-highs in both efficiency metrics. In those 17 games, the leading opposing scorer has averaged 28.2 PPG against the Thunder. -- Soppe

New York Knicks at Orlando Magic 7 p.m. ET, Amway Center, Orlando, Florida

Records (Against the Spread) Knicks: 29-26 (28-26-1) Magic: 22-32 (31-21-2)

Line: Knicks (-1.5) BPI Projection: Knicks (117.9-117.8) Money Line: Knicks (-125), Magic (+105) BPI Projected winner: Knicks (50.4%) Total: 225.5 points BPI Projected Total: 235.7 points

Injury Report: Knicks: RJ Barrett, (GTD - Illness); Mitchell Robinson, (OUT - Thumb) Magic: Chuma Okeke, (OUT - Knee); Mo Bamba, (OUT - Suspension) Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: Julius Randle over 4.5 assists. Randle piled on the rebounds in January and averaged nearly 14 RPG, but so far in February he has been doing a bit more passing. Randle has averaged 6.7 assists in three February games and has had five or more assists in five consecutive games. The Magic are an improved team, but no match for Randle, who has averaged over five APG since the start of January. -- Karabell

Phoenix Suns at Brooklyn Nets 7:30 p.m. ET, Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

Records (Against the Spread) Suns: 29-26 (30-25-0) Nets: 32-21 (28-25-0)

Line: Suns (-5) BPI Projection: Suns (118.3-115.3) Money Line: Suns (-205), Nets (+170) BPI Projected winner: Suns (61%) Total: 226 points BPI Projected Total: 233.6 points

Injury Report: Suns: Cameron Payne, (OUT - Foot); Jae Crowder, (OUT - Not Injury Related); Landry Shamet, (OUT - Foot) Nets: Ben Simmons, (GTD - Knee); Dorian Finney-Smith, (GTD - Not Injury Related); Seth Curry, (GTD - Thigh); Spencer Dinwiddie, (GTD - Not Injury Related); Kevin Durant, (OUT - Knee) Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Cam Thomas (rostered in 30.1% of ESPN leagues). Thomas has scored more than 40 points in consecutive games and hit an incredible 31-of-52 field goals the past two games, with his volume almost more astounding than the accuracy. He's hit 11 3-pointers. The Nets remain riddled with injuries and Thomas, after not doing much most of the season, has seized the opportunity. Who knows about next week and beyond, but this week, he's a scoring machine. -- Eric Karabell

Best bet: Chris Paul over 12.5 rebounds + assists. Paul has averaged 5.0 rebounds and 9.6 assists over his past 10 games. He hould be able to succeed against the Nets, who aren't a strong rebounding team. -- Moody

Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans 7:30 p.m. ET, Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana

Records (Against the Spread) Hawks: 27-27 (24-28-2) Pelicans: 28-27 (26-28-1)

Line: Pelicans (-1.5) BPI Projection: Hawks (118.3-116.5) Money Line: Hawks (+105), Pelicans (-125) BPI Projected winner: Hawks (56.2%) Total: 236 points BPI Projected Total: 234.7 points

Injury Report: Hawks: None reported Pelicans: Brandon Ingram, (GTD - Toe); Jonas Valanciunas, (GTD - Quadriceps); Dyson Daniels, (OUT - Ankle); Zion Williamson, (OUT - Hamstring); E.J. Liddell, (OUT - Knee) Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: De'Andre Hunter (rostered in 21% of ESPN leagues). Hunter is a better streamer in points formats than category formats. He's scored 30 or more fantasy points in three consecutive games and averaged 32.0 minutes per game. -- Eric Moody

Fantasy streamer: Ayo Dosunmu (rostered in 14.6% of ESPN leagues) Dosunmu is intriguing streamer, with Alex Caruso out. He has scored 20 or more fantasy points in four consecutive games, including two with 30 or more points. -- Moody

Trend: The Pelicans are functioning closer to full strength these days with Brandon Ingram back in the fold. That leaves the door open for exposing an interesting run in the betting sphere. When Ingram is active and the Pelicans are favored by at least two points, the under is 8-4. In all other games with Ingram active, unders are just 2-6. -- Soppe

Chicago Bulls at Memphis Grizzlies 8 p.m. ET, FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee

Records (Against the Spread) Bulls: 26-27 (30-23-0) Grizzlies: 32-21 (24-26-3)

Line: Grizzlies (-8.5) BPI Projection: Grizzlies (121.9-116.1) Money Line: Bulls (+260), Grizzlies (-335) BPI Projected winner: Grizzlies (69.7%) Total: 235.5 points BPI Projected Total: 238 points

Injury Report: Bulls: Alex Caruso, (GTD - Foot); Javonte Green, (OUT - Knee); Lonzo Ball, (OUT - Knee) Grizzlies: Steven Adams, (OUT - Knee) Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Xavier Tillman (rostered in 3.6% of ESPN leagues). Tillman is a viable streamer while Steven Adams is out. He has started in three consecutive games, scoring 25 or more fantasy points. -- Eric Moody

Best bet: Ja Morant over 36.5 points + assists. Morant has averaged 36.3 points and assists in his past 10 games. Morant has a 36.7% usage rate and should have success against a Bulls team that allows opponents an effective field goal percentage of nearly 55%. -- Moody

Trend: The Memphis Grizzlies are a gritty team that carries a significant home court advantage. Usually. But not so much lately. The Grizz are just 2-6 ATS over their past eight home games, a fall from grace after opening the season 13-4-1 ATS in front of their home fans.. -- Kyle Soppe

Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets 9 p.m. ET, Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado

Records (Against the Spread) Timberwolves: 29-27 (27-29-0) Nuggets: 37-17 (28-25-1)

Line: Nuggets (-8.5) BPI Projection: Nuggets (121.9-119) Money Line: Timberwolves (+278), Nuggets (-355) BPI Projected winner: Nuggets (59.1%) Total: 235.5 points BPI Projected Total: 240.6 points

Injury Report: Timberwolves: Kyle Anderson, (GTD - Back); Rudy Gobert, (GTD - Groin); Jordan McLaughlin, (OUT - Calf); Austin Rivers, (OUT - Suspension); Karl-Anthony Towns, (OUT - Calf) Nuggets: Aaron Gordon, (GTD - Ankle); Jack White, (GTD - Thigh); Jamal Murray, (GTD - Knee); Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, (GTD - Ankle); Nikola Jokic, (GTD - Hamstring); Zeke Nnaji, (GTD - Shoulder) Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Naz Reid (rostered in 2.8% of ESPN leagues). Reid will enter the Timberwolves' starting lineup if Rudy Gobert is ruled out. He has averaged 22.9 points and 10.7 rebounds per 40 minutes this season. -- Moody

Best bet: Nikola Jokic over 47.5 points + assists + rebounds. Jokic has averaged 24.4 points, 12.1 assists, and 12.8 rebounds over his past 12 games, while shooting 71% from the floor. It's worth considering Jokic for a triple-double at +100. -- Moody

Best bet: D'Angelo Russell over 21.5 points + rebounds. Russell has averaged 22.7 points and 3.5 rebounds over the last 10 games. The Nuggets are a middle-of-the-road team defensively but are allowing opponents an effective field goal percentage of 55.2%. Russell should continue to be a key player for the Timberwolves. -- Moody


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