Donovan Mitchell is eligible to sign a three-year contract extension with the Cleveland Cavaliers until Oct. 23. If he decides against doing so, he'll still have two guaranteed years remaining on his contract before a $37.1 million player option in 2025-26 that he's all but certain to decline.
During a recent episode of ESPN's NBA Today, Brian Windhorst said he did "not expect" Mitchell to sign an extension with the Cavaliers this offseason. He also said that he didn't "expect that to cause a major alarm" in Cleveland, even though the New York Knicks have long lurked as a rumored possible destination for Mitchell either via free agency or trade.
To some extent, the Cavaliers have every right not to fret if Mitchell bypasses an extension ahead of this season. It would make far more financial sense for him to sign one next summer or re-sign if/when he becomes a free agent in 2025. Panic should only begin to set in next summer if he's showing no interest in signing an extension then, too.
At that point, they would have to consider breaking up their current core. In the meantime, they should use this coming season as a proving grounds before they might need to make some uncomfortable decisions next offseason.
Based on the current 2025-26 cap projection of $149.1 million, Mitchell's three-year extension this offseason would top out at $144.9 million. If he waited until next offseason to sign an extension, he'd be eligible for a four-year deal worth roughly $200.4 million. And if he decided to become a free agent in 2025, he'd be able to sign a five-year, $259.4 contract with the Cavaliers or a four-year, $192.3 million deal with another team.
The tradeoff from Mitchell's perspective is that he only has six years of NBA experience under his belt, so he's ineligible to sign a new deal starting at 35% of that year's salary cap. Even if he played out the remainder of his contract (including his player option), he'd be one year short of the 10 years necessary for a 35% max, and he can't qualify for a supermax via the Rose rule since he was traded after his current contract began.
Instead, Mitchell can only sign a new deal starting at 30% of the cap. He'd have to become a free agent in 2026 or beyond to be eligible for the 35% max.
To recap, these are Mitchell's options for his next contract:
By waiting to sign an extension until next summer, he could add an extra year and $55 million to his next deal. As tempting as it might be to lock in long-term financial security nowânearly $145 million is nothing to scoff at!âhe can guarantee himself even more money by remaining patient.
In late July, Windhorst said on NBA Today that the Cavaliers were aware of that financial reality when they traded for Mitchell last offseason.
"I don't think under any circumstances he was ever considering extending this season, and I think the Cavs knew that when they traded for him," Windhorst said. "I think the pressure point comes a year from now when he's got one year left on his contract, whether he'll extend. And the Cavs have a whole 'nother year to see where their team is at, and where Donovan sees that the Cavs are at."
Last season was the first time since 1997-98 that the Cavs made the playoffs without LeBron James on their roster. It was their first 50-win season sans James since 1992-93. However, the good taste from the regular season got washed out when the New York Knicks throttled them in the first round of the playoffs.
Although the Cavs sport a twin-towers starting lineup featuring Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, the Knicks outrebounded them by 49 over that five-game series. The way that New York controlled the glass brought some longer-term roster-construction questions to the forefront for Cleveland.
Mobley, the No. 3 overall pick from the 2021 NBA draft, is widely expected to develop into an All-Star and a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. He's a franchise cornerstone in Cleveland who figures to sign a five-year maximum contract as soon as he becomes eligible next summer. There's just one problem: He isn't a great shooter.
After shooting 25.0 percent from deep as a rookie (23-of-92), he shot only 21.6 percent on three-pointers this past season (22-of-102). That'd be less of an issue if he shared the frontcourt with a floor-spacing big man such as Brook Lopez, Myles Turner or Joel Embiid. However, Allen is even less of a threat from deep than Mobley. He's hit only 19 three-pointers across his six NBA seasons.
It's fair to wonder whether the Cavs will eventually be best off sliding Mobley to the 5 and trading Allen for more wing and/or forward depth. They'd likely prefer to figure that out before making a decision on Mitchell's long-term future.
The Cavs added Max Strus and Georges Niang in free agency to address their weak spots from last season. The new-look Mliwaukee Bucks are now the clear favorites to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals, but the Boston Celtics are the only other East team with better Finals odds than Cleveland, per FanDuel Sportsbook.
With the Miami Heat left to regroup after falling short on Damian Lillard and the Philadelphia 76ers in James Harden-driven disarray, the Cavs have a golden opportunity to cement themselves as no worse than the third-best team in the East this year. If they fall short of that, they'll have to reevaluate whether it's worth running back this same core next season.
The 2023-24 season is an opportunity for both Mitchell and the Cavaliers to gather more information before committing to one another long-term. Both will be in a far better place to make that decision next offseason, which is why it isn't worth panicking if he bypasses an extension for now.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
