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Chris Paul Is Serving A Reminder: His Impact Will Never Fade

Apr. 30, 2021
Chris Paul Is Serving A Reminder: His Impact Will Never Fade

When the pivotal moment arrives, Chris Paul will do it all.

He will command the attention of his teammates. He transforms into a coach on the floor, conducting a beautiful orchestra disguised as a basketball game.

With nearly 1,200 career games in his rearview, Paul has seen every defensive coverage – modern or outdated. He’s experienced every type of threat any defender can impose, regardless of the size, speed, and reputation of the player in front of him. Paul has also learned the hard way, living through every form of playoff heartbreak one could imagine. Intense seven-game wars, loosening the grip of a 3-1 series when his team was in full control, having a few untimely mental errors that swing a series, or being forced to watch his team struggle from the bench while injured.

You name it, he’s been through it.

Drafted in 2005 – in the middle of a defense-oriented decade for basketball – and maturing as a player while the sport was simultaneously evolving, Paul owns perhaps the most unique résumé of experience among his peers.

At this point of his long, storied career, nothing rattles him when it’s time to give his team an edge. No defensive coverage is too daunting when he’s pounding the ball at the top of the arc, running through the options in his robotic brain and planning to torture his next victim on the court.

Paul turns 36 years old next week. But, one look at his aggression, energy level, and efficiency in a league that’s much faster and more athletic than his prime years would lead you to believe he’s 26.

In his 16th season, is he about to finish up one of the most impressive or dominant years of his professional career? No. Through an objective lens, his production is actually just, well, pedestrian when stacked up with his previous Hall-of-Fame level regular seasons.

Paul’s box plus-minus (BPM) of +4.5 this year would be the third-lowest of his 16 seasons. For perspective on how absurd his impact has been, that figure would be Steve Nash’s fifth-highest of his 18-year career. It would be Jason Kidd’s seventh-highest out of 19 years.

As far as efficiency goes, Paul’s current true shooting mark of 59.3% would only be his seventh-best percentage – but it’s still well above the league-average rate of 57.2%. Paul has only logged one (1) season below the league-average true shooting level, which was his sophomore year in the league. That’s how exceptional his shot selection and finishing ability has been since 2005.

His scoring volume this season on a per-possession basis would rank 12th among his 16 years. His assist volume, also per-possession, would only be 10th out of 16.

Even with the impact metrics and relatively tame box-score numbers, Paul is still having one of the most memorable, artful, and important years of his basketball life. Extend it to his lone season playing for the Thunder, and an argument could be made this is the most respected stretch of Paul’s legacy – until he claims a championship, if that day ever occurs.

Paul has found a way to masterfully blend his tenacious on-court approach, his aptitude of toggling the switch between a shot-hunting guard and playmaking genius, along with the use of his influence and leadership tactics necessary on a younger team.

When Paul was traded to the Phoenix Suns during the 2020 offseason, it was clear the situation would feel similar to his OKC run. Immediately, there would be (internal) expectations to perform well enough to secure a playoff spot, because Paul never settles for less. However, it would again require the most attention to detail – from a leadership perspective – that Paul has ever had to manage.

Paul hasn’t just embraced the challenge of becoming a mini-version of his longtime friend, LeBron James, as a veteran superstar that everyone on the roster can lean on and use as a developmental sponge. He has excelled in this role over the last two years, with two different franchises and rosters, easily pivoting from the different circumstances he was in during the Houston era. If anything, the adaptability from Paul is the most admirable component of his age-34 and 35 seasons.

In Wednesday’s victory over the Los Angeles Clippers, a team the Suns are battling in the standings for the No. 2 seed, Paul had another virtuoso performance. Up to this point of the season, the stakes were the highest. No championship or Finals trip is on the line yet, but controlling your destiny for homecourt in the first two rounds certainly matters.

Through the first two quarters, Paul had a disappointing three points on just three shot attempts, paired with seven assists. Phoenix still led by 10, but he knew his impact had to be felt. With the Clippers inevitably making a run in the third quarter, Paul is the first to know – he has to be better.

In the second half alone, Paul lit up the Clippers for 25 points on 9-of-12 shooting and 4-of-4 at the foul line (90.8% true shooting during that span).

Once again, he flipped the switch and toggled between CP3 the passing wizard and CP3 the clutch shot-creator.

“He just kind of controls the whole game,” Clippers’ head coach Ty Lue said. “He plays at his own pace and gets guys involved. He knows exactly when to take over the game. That’s what a true point guard does.”

In Paul’s first two games vs. LA this season (both losses), he scored 28 combined points on 23 shot attempts. In Wednesday’s important win, he matched his point total throughout the previous two games and only needed 15 shots.

He countered every defensive attack the Clippers sent his way, including having 6’9” Paul George pick him up in semi-transition. Once CP3 started cooking, George elected to take the assignment and try to utilize his length and switchability to slow down the Point God.

However, it did not work.

Paul has some type of response to anything an opposing coach deploys, and he has nearly two decades worth of reps against longer, more athletic defenders.

He knows every trick and has perfected the timing. Pushing the ball up the floor, in a three-point game with 5:35 left, Paul is able to read his defender. He sees George standing a foot inside the arc, attempting to stop the ball from entering the paint.

With one swift crossover to his dominant hand, Paul attacks the left foot of George and creates the initial gap for an advantage. It’s only half of the battle, though. He knows George is almost attached to his hip, trailing him and preparing for a rim contest. Notice how CP3 puts on the brakes and throws off George’s timing:

For smaller guards in the tier of CP3 and Kyrie Irving, everything is about angles. For those losing their speed and becoming higher in age, such as Paul, it becomes a lot more important to understand how to generate a window of space.

That’s where Paul’s expertise in deceleration, or the “stop-and-go” technique, is becoming extremely vital to his offensive success. Over the last two seasons, Paul has converted 94 of his 131 attempts at the rim, making him 71.8% effective within the restricted area since he turned 34. For someone that doesn’t have the same burst as his Hornets or Clippers days, it’s actually stunning. These little tricks help explain it.

Two possessions later, watch how George enters a lazy defensive stance while stepping up to the perimeter. When the ball is swung to CP3, he simply charges directly to the rim by attacking George’s inside foot:

He can beat you by driving right or left, it doesn’t matter. The underrated part of the play above is Paul making sure finishes on the opposite side of the basket, realizing even George’s length won’t be enough to account for the distance without fouling.

These fourth quarter points were crucial for pushing the game out of reach for the Clippers, in addition to some unlucky shooting by the road team down the stretch.

Paul’s fourth quarter numbers over the past two seasons have been near the league leaders:

Suns’ head coach Monty Williams recognizes how relieving it is to have a top-flight closer available to him and the team.

“I just think he gets stronger as the game progresses,” Williams said. “He came over to me and said that, I just felt strong down the stretch. His mentality doesn’t change as far as, there’s no nerves, there’s no panic in him. He’s been there so many times. It speaks to the talent he has, but it also speaks to the work and experiences he’s been in over the course of his long career.”

While he primarily dissected the Clippers via penetration on Wednesday, his bread and butter in the clutch has typically resided in the mid-range.

Every single year, it almost feels as if Paul sprinkles in a new twist, or a different element of his pull-up shooting acumen just for fun.

Take this possession, for instance, where both Paul and the Suns execute something interesting. As Paul is dribbling up the floor, you see Deandre Ayton wanting to set the ball-screen for his point guard. What sticks out the most, to me, is how Ayton doesn’t indicate to the defense which side his screen will come. The subtle action of standing directly behind Reggie Jackson, allowing Paul to dictate which side he wants to get downhill from, makes this absolutely beautiful:

When the screen is set on Jackson’s left side, giving Paul the room to drive right, look at the manipulation by one of the most creative and efficient mid-range shooters in history. Paul still has just enough burst, especially in short distances from A to B, to get exactly where he wants.

If a defense is playing “Drop” coverage in the pick-and-roll, such as Ivica Zubac and the Clippers in the play above, they are inviting him to take his most comfortable shot. It’s not a great strategy. Paul has become the head honcho of the move you see in that clip — snaking the defense after the screen by veering to the other direction, and delivering a crossover right at the exact moment he’s stepping (or hopping) back into a jumper.

There aren’t enough adjectives to describe the precision and balance he’s obtained within those pull-up twos from 12-18 feet. If your defense concedes them by design, well, have fun losing the minutes with Paul on the floor.

Over the course of his 16-year NBA journey, Paul’s mid-range numbers have fluctuated ... sort of. They went from “good for a young player” in the beginning, all the way to “one of the best in the game” within a few years.

Now, in his fourth season of the last five years with a 50% or better conversion rate from the mid-range, Paul’s reputation has evolved into something greater. Now, he’s just on the Mount Rushmore of this type of offensive look (at least in the modern era):

Paul’s greatest individual skill is hard to pinpoint because there are too many to rattle off. He’s able to exploit a defense with his off-the-dribble shooting, timely passing and limited turnovers, or simply outsmart any of his competitors when important, game-altering decisions have to be made.

Still, his best “intangible” talent might just be the numerous examples of him leading a team. He exponentially lifts the ceiling of each team he joins. It happened in New Orleans right away. He gave the Clippers multiple cracks at a title, but injuries didn’t help them. His presence lifted the Rockets into a prime position to win their first championship since 1995, but the greatest collection of talent stood in their way.

His handprint was all over the Thunder’s success story from last year, finishing as the No. 5 seed when majority of the projection systems had them 11th or 12th. It was the first year he could’ve packed it in and realistically expected to have a longer vacation. And they massively overachieved because of how much confidence he instilled in the young group in front of him.

Now, this season, he’s in a completely different spot. When Paul arrived in the desert, he accepted the challenge of trying to elevate a team from outside of playoff contention. While a six or seven seed would be a quality improvement, that’s never enough for Paul.

The Suns had much bigger plans from the start. It was never about the simple goal of reaching the playoffs. It was always about making the leap from a lottery team to a championship contender. Not a fake contender that gets shrugged off throughout a season. An actual contender that can realistically play in late July.

With Paul at the helm, leading the Suns through every potential roadblock in clutch situations, they have achieved part of their season-long goal.

Paul, now on his fifth different team, has the entire locker room around him. Any reputation of him being a tough guy to get along with, especially when the stakes are the highest, is being disproved for the second straight year.

“Our guys trust him,” Williams said.

“They just expect him to come through. And I’m happy with the results when he has the ball in his hands.”


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