Here are a few Monday thoughts from the Hoops Lab, as we prepare for Week 13 of the fantasy basketball season. Keep in mind, the Fantasy Basketball Rest of Season Rankings also update on Mondays, so check those out as your prepare for this week's games. Between the rankings and this article, we'll also help you identify some good Buy Low/Sell high candidates. So, without further ado, let's dig into it.
Last Monday, Klay Thompson dropped 54 points and was the also-ran story of an NBA night where Donovan Mitchell scored 71 (!) points. On Tuesday, Giannis scored a career-high 55 points to cap a 3-game run where he averaged 47.7 PPG, 17.3 RPG and 6.3. The week before, Luka Doncic had detonated for 61 points, 20 rebounds and 10 assists as part of a five-game run where he scored 50-plus three times and averaged a 45.6 PPG, 11.2 RPG and 10.2 APG triple-double. The week before that, Nikola Jokic put together a 40 point, 27 rebound, 10 assist triple-double as part of a 12-game stretch averaging 30.3 PPG, 12.5 RPG and 10.8 APG. Last month, Anthony Davis had a two-game stretch where he totaled 99 points and 27 rebounds, a month after Joel Embiid had a two-game stretch with 101 points, 21 rebounds, 14 assists and 9 blocks.
The video game-like explosions were coming so frequently that on Friday of last week a prominent national sportsbook made any player scoring 50 points their boost bet for the night. Kevin Pelton wrote an article, postulating on what could be causing all the scoring outbursts.
But, in the last several days, we've seen the other side to the coin. In the three games since his career night, Mitchell has totaled 42 points while missing one of the games entirely. Similar story for Giannis, who followed up Tuesday's double-nickel with his worst game of the season on Friday (9 points, 4 rebounds, 0 assists, 3 turnovers). Luka had a downright human 23 points (on 7-for-23 FG), 9 rebounds and 3 assists on Thursday against the Celtics then sat out Sunday's game with a sore ankle. Jokic had consecutive games last week where he averaged "only" 18.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG and 9.0 APG. Both Anthony Davis and Joel Embiid are currently sidelined with injuries.
The point is, the NBA season is a marathon, not a sprint. There will be major ebbs and flows for every player, even the ones that seem to have discovered the video game cheat code. The players are human, and when they put together these monster performances it takes a very human toll on their bodies and performances. They typically have recovery periods, either through bad games or having to miss some time.
In season-long fantasy hoops leagues, this is part of the trade calculus at any given time. Do you trade Player X when his value is at a peak, or do you hold on and hope for more? Do you trade for Player Y when they are injured, or after they've had some down games, with the expectation that they recover their glory as the marathon continues?
In DFS or daily betting/player prop markets, the math is more acute. In the immediate aftermath of historic performance, that might be the time to fade even a superstar as his price and/or prop lines increase into the unsustainable. Enjoy the detonations when you can get them...but be prepared for the other side of the lights, when the down performances happen to regress the overall numbers back to a more reasonable mean.
Kevin Durant has been diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee after Jimmy Butler fell into his knee on Sunday, and will be re-evaluated in two weeks. I emphasize that last part: re-evaluated in two weeks. This doesn't mean that Durant will be back in two weeks, it means that it will be at least that long before they even check to see how he's doing again. A "mild" MCL sprain typically takes anywhere from two to six weeks to recover, and Durant has had similar injuries in the past. Last January, Durant suffered an MCL sprain to his left knee when an opponent fell on his knee, and missed 22 games. Woj reports optimism that this injury is less severe, but his sources estimate Durant could be sidelined for about a month. Durant also missed more than a month in 2017 with a sprained MCL after a teammate fell into his knee.
Bottom line: as a fantasy hoops manager, you should be prepared for the possibility that Durant is out for longer than two weeks. I wrote again, just last week, that Durant had missed at least 27 games in each of the past three seasons and that at 34 years old this had to be a consideration when estimating Durant's output for a season. I'm very relieved that it seems that this injury could be milder than it could have been, and in fantasy hoops leagues where I have the depth to wait it out I might keep the legend (or trade for him, in the right deal). But, if my team is just scraping by, I might have to consider trading Durant now, even at a small loss, because my team might not be able to afford a potentially extended absence from my best player.
The general feeling around the Lakers early in the season was that they were done. They came out of the blocks with a slow start to the season, with an almost historic lack of 3-point shooting, and their star players were older, injured, and just didn't fit together. But, take another look at how things currently stand.
The Lakers have won five straight games, are the hottest team in the Pacific Division, and are suddenly only two games out of first place in the division. Add in the report that Anthony Davis is ramping up rehab, and eyeing a potential return as soon as the Lakers' next home stand later this week, and things are looking up for the purple and gold. There are obvious fantasy hoops ramifications if Davis is able to return soon. Davis was one of the top per-game producers in fantasy this season, and was on a major tear when he got hurt. This could put a bit of a cap on LeBron James' upside, but he was still averaging in the upper-20s of points while Davis was scorching last month, so the effect isn't huge. Davis' return could bode very well for Russell Westbrook, especially as a distributor, because the two of them play a lot of two-man game where Russ sets AD up for easy finishes.
This also factors into the NBA futures market. I was able to get the Lakers at +3000 to win the Pacific Division as recently as Sunday, but as of today that is down to +1200. This is still a number worth paying attention to, though, because right now the Lakers could even be favored to win the division if they stay healthy and that +1200 is still by-far the longest odds on the board in the Pacific.
Zach LaVine entered this season still recovering from early 2022 knee surgery, and it showed. In the Bulls' first 11 games of the season, LaVine averaged "only" 20.7 PPG on 42.1 FG%, and had four DNPs. For context, LaVine averaged 25.7 PPG on 47.7 FG% from the 2019-20 season through the end of 2021-21.
Well, it would appear that LaVine is back. In his own words, he "feel(s) like me again."
That feeling is showing up on the court. In his past 12 games, LaVine has averaged 26.5 PPG (52.6 FG%, 85.7 FT%), 4.7 APG, 4.0 RPG and 3.7 3PG. He has scored 77 points with 17 3-pointers in his last two games, which came on a back-to-back. This has obvious fantasy implications for LaVine, and also could be worth paying attention to for those considering NBA futures that remember that the Bulls led the Eastern Conference in record for a good chunk of last season before LaVine's injuries helped derail the season.
Zion Williamson had been destroying the league in leading the Pelicans to one of the top spots in the Western Conference, but he's out for an extended period with a hamstring injury. Last season, Brandon Ingram had started taking the superstar leap, and was poised to co-star with Zion, but he's been out for an extended period with a toe injury. He has expressed hope he can return during the Pelican's current five-game road trip, but as yet he hasn't been cleared and it's unknown whether he might have to ramp back up to full minutes/speed even after he's back.
In the meantime, it's McCollum's time. McCollum is running the show right now, and has averaged 28 and 6 since Zion went down. He'd been playing well long before that, though, and as he showed with Ingram last season, he's capable of producing at A-level even if he's nominally the second option. In his past 14 games, McCollum has averaged 25.6 PPG, 6.1 APG, 4.6 RPG, 4.2 3PG, 0.9 SPG and 0.7 BPG and likely has more value in the next month or so than his fantasy hoops name recognition would account for.
