By Will HillFOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst
With apologies to the holiday season, the most wonderful time of the year is finally here.
The MLB postseason has arrived, and while one can quibble with the merits of 12 teams now qualifying for the playoffs in a sport in which 162 regular-season games are played, there's no denying this: It will be awesome to watch!
The second year of this format gives byes to the top-two seeds in each league and forces the other eight teams to duke it out in a best-two-out-of-three series.
As for how to bet on the postseason, I have you covered with my best futures bets, but with a twist. The purpose of this exercise is to rank which teams have the best value based on their odds of winning the World Series. For example, the Atlanta Braves, many would agree, are the best team in baseball. They are also the betting favorites to win it all.
But at +300 odds (a $10 bet wins you a $30 profit), are they really the best value?
Let's jump into my list, counting down from worst value to best.
12. Miami Marlins +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
It's been a great year in Miami, and not just for the surprising Marlins. The NBA's Heat and NHL's Panthers made improbable runs to their respective finals, and the University of Miami men's basketball team reached the Final Four.
Can the Marlins continue the trend? I'm not so optimistic.
Despite the winning record, the Fish were outscored by 57 runs overall this year. This is remarkable when you consider a team like the Mets, who have long been eliminated, were only outscored by 15 runs.
Not only does Miami get a tough draw early against the Phillies, but the team isn't at full capacity. Starting pitchers Sandy Alcántara and Eury Pérez would have made this a dangerous squad, but both are out with injuries.
The Marlins had a great year but hold little chance of holding up the trophy at season's end.
11. Arizona Diamondbacks +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
I would love to be wrong here, as this team is young, new and so much fun to watch.
This is its first postseason appearance since 2017, and it did it with speed, defense and a Cy Young contending season from ace Zac Gallen.
But at +3000? No, thanks. This is another team that was outscored overall this season. The Diamondbacks also have major question marks when it comes to pitching depth. Plus, Arizona would have to go through the Dodgers and possibly the Braves, if it is to upset the favored Brewers in the wild-card round.
The Snakes are headed in the right direction, and, much like the Marlins, just getting here was a wildly successful season, but they are not winning it all.
10. Milwaukee Brewers +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total)
If I were writing this column a few hours earlier, the Brewers would not be this low. But Brandon Woodruff is now going to miss the wild-card round (and likely beyond) with a shoulder injury, which is a huge loss. This injury spells doom for a team built on starting pitching and slated to face the Dodgers if it advances to the next round.
It does have Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta, and Milwaukee played very good baseball at times this season, but I don't think it has the offense to hang with the Dodgers if it were to advance.
9. Texas Rangers +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Where are the Rangers mentally? This team led the AL West for pretty much the entire regular season … until it didn't.
Losing in game 162 capped off a brutal finish for the Rangers, who now have to play in Tampa in the wild-card round as opposed to being slotted as the No. 2 seed had they hung on to the division title.
This is also a beat-up pitching staff — no Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, and now Jon Gray is out as well. The parallels between these Rangers and the 2022 Mets (who also collapsed) are eerie, and while they can certainly hit and are fun to watch, it's hard for me to see them winning four playoff rounds with all the injuries to their rotation.
8. Toronto Blue Jays +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
At No. 8, this is a clear line in the sand for me — from this point forward, any of these teams making or winning the World Series wouldn't shock me.
The Jays come in at this spot because they leave me feeling lukewarm. Toronto was only 14th in the league in runs scored, while 2021 AL home run leader Vlad Guerrero Jr. had a very tame year, leaving the yard only 26 times and failing to knock in 100 runs.
This squad is talented, but at +1600, I don't see enough value for a team that would have to win four series in a row without home-field advantage. Plus, I think it has a tough draw in the wild-card round, which we'll get to later.
7. Baltimore Orioles +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total)
The O's are a fantastic story — a 100-win team that just a couple of years ago was the doormat of the sport, an incredible turnaround — and a young, talented squad poised to be a mainstay in October for years to come.
But for a team that doesn't really have knockout starting pitching and only +700 odds, I don't see a ton of value. Losing star reliever Felix Bautista really hurts what was a lights-out back of the bullpen as well.
Can Baltimore win it? Sure, absolutely. Do I love the price? I do not.
6. Tampa Bay Rays +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
I've always said count out the Rays at your own risk. They are perhaps the smartest, most resourceful organization in the sport.
They lost All-Star Shane McClanahan and ERA leader Jeffrey Springs from their pitching staff, yet here they are nonetheless. The team led the AL in run differential and has a very good bullpen, along with a manager (Kevin Cash) who is a master at deploying it.
Odds at +1000 are not enough for me to bet on them, considering they need to win four rounds, but there are worse bets than backing a team as smart and talented as the Rays.
5. Houston Astros +450 (bet $10 to win $55 total)
Here the Astros are again. Hate ‘em, love ‘em — either way, it's hard not to respect their ability to make deep October runs year after year. They will probably be the most popular pick to represent the AL (again) because of their experience and top-end talent.
Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander have not been as great as usual at the top of the rotation, so there are questions about the pitching staff (as there are with many of these teams), but they are still a loaded team that simply knows how to win.
At +450, it's not a tremendous value, but have fun trying to beat them.
4. Atlanta Braves +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)
The Braves at No. 4?!? I get it. I know they are the best team in the league, but the point of this exercise is to find the best value, and at +300, there isn't a ton of bang for your buck.
If I had to pick the World Series winner right now, like many of you, I would pick the Braves, so maybe you're inclined to take the +300 odds — who could blame you?
But Max Fried is dealing with a blister issue, Charlie Morton is hurt, and after Spencer Strider, there are not a lot of known commodities in that starting rotation.
Even Strider, for as talented as he is, has been prone to surrendering big innings. The lineup is relentless to the point where it's nearly unfair how good it is, but the pitching does make them vulnerable.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers +450 (bet $10 to win $55 total)
I can probably copy and paste much of my Braves' thoughts and apply them to the Dodgers here.
They destroy the ball, but how much do we really trust their pitching? It's basically Clayton Kershaw, Lance Lynn, and a bunch of young, unproven arms after that, as Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urías, Dustin May and Walker Buehler are all sidelined.
I have them pegged above the Braves in terms of value because I feel they have an easier draw in the NLDS, especially with Woodruff being hurt for the Brewers. The Diamondbacks or Brewers are not as dangerous as the team up next.
2. Philadelphia Phillies +1300 (bet $10 to win $140 total)
The defending National League champs won a few more games than last year and again look to break up the bracket and pull off some upsets.
Of course, being a wild card, they will have to survive a best two-out-of-three with the Marlins, but if they can do that, watch out! They upset the Braves a year ago, winning in four games, and are one of the few teams with the firepower at the top of the lineup to hang with their division foe.
The Phillies also have one of the great home-field advantages in the sport, as the hostile crowd helped them win their first six postseason games at home during the 2022 playoffs.
Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola at the top of the rotation, a powerful lineup and a boisterous home crowd make the Phillies a good long-shot bet to get back to the Fall Classic.
1. Minnesota Twins +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
In October 2004, Johan Santana and the Twins beat the almighty New York Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS. They would go on to lose Game 2, as well as their next 17 postseason games after that.
An 18-game postseason losing streak is one of the most remarkable runs we have ever seen in any sport. Are they ... due? I don't know if they're due because we would have said that after losses eight, nine, 10, etc.
But I do know this: They can pitch.
Third in the league in runs allowed, they have the arms not just to end the streak, but to perhaps go on a long run. Starting pitchers Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan are complemented by a plethora of nasty bullpen arms and a capable offense that has swung the bats extremely well the last month of the season.
They face the Blue Jays in the wild-card round and see Kevin Gausman in Game 1 — a pitcher they faced twice this season, accruing 21 baserunners vs. the right-hander in the two starts.
The Central has gotten a (well-deserved) reputation for flopping in the playoffs, but that is part of why the Twins are being overlooked and undervalued.
The path is not easy, and anyone can lose a two-out-of-three series to anyone else, but if they can survive the Blue Jays, the American League is as wide open as it has been in recent memory. There is no reason the Twins can't make a run.
A final note: For the sake of uniformity, the odds listed in this post are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, but I encourage anyone placing money on this wager (or any wager, really) to shop around for the best price, as odds often vary from book to book.
Good luck on your wagers!
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
