After spending more than $1 billion in a wild free-agent frenzy, the 30 teams of Major League Baseball are looking forward to their first uninterrupted season in three years.
With Covid-19 and the lockout in their rear-view mirrors, clubs can concentrate on performance – with an eye on grabbing one of the six available playoff spots in each league.
Now that the calendar has turned to 2023, here’s an educated guess as to the possibilities:
1. Armed with a new $43.3 million contract that matches teammate Max Scherzer as the highest in the game, new Mets signee Justin Verlander will continue his long-shot march toward 300 wins. Though he turns 40 in February, he’s on a contending club that should provide plenty of support. But he needs to average 17 wins a year for the next three seasons even to come within five of the magic number, last reached by Randy Johnson in 2009. It won’t be easy.
2. With his one-year, $30 million contract expiring after the season, two-way star Shohei Ohtani of the Angels will contend for his second MVP award, his first Cy Young, and the first $500 million contract in baseball history. Still just 28, Ohtani will become a free agent after the 2023 season – unless he’s traded and extended in July. After signing nine free agents in December, Mets owner Steve Cohen is sure to be a strong bidder but will have competition from the Yankees, Dodgers, Rangers, and Red Sox.
3. Two players just arriving from the Japanese leagues will be Rookies of the Year, following in the footsteps of Hideo Nomo (1995), Ichiro Suzuki (2001), and Ohtani (2018). The National League winner will be Kodai Senga, a 30-year-old right-hander who signed a five-year, $75 million pact with the free-spending Mets after posting a 2.59 ERA, averaging 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings, and winning six Japan Series titles during his 11-year career. In the Junior Circuit, the Boston Red Sox seek a seismic jolt from outfielder Masataka Yoshida after signing the two-time batting king to a five-year, $90 million pact. A contact hitter who could be the second coming of Ichiro, the 29-year-old Yoshida had a .326 batting average and .419 on-base percentage over seven seasons in Japan. He might not like the spring weather in Boston but he’ll love the Green Monster.
4. Houston’s hope of becoming the first team with back-to-back world championships will be stifled by the San Diego Padres, who will win their first World Series. But it will be the only time the quartet of Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis, Jr., Manny Machado, and Juan Soto play together because Machado is expected to opt out of his 10-year, $300 million contract after the season ends.
5. The Texas Rangers, after six straight losing seasons, will give the Astros a season-long battle in the American League West that comes down to the final weekend. Jacob deGrom will stay healthy all year and lead the league with 20 wins, helping new manager Bruce Bochy pay instant dividends for president of baseball operations Chris Young, who pitched for Bochy in San Diego. With a strong assist from newly-signed Nathan Eovaldi, the Rangers will reach the playoffs, along with the Mariners, but Seattle will remain the only current club without a pennant.
6. The youngest team in the National League will edge the oldest in a fierce divisional title chase. The Atlanta Braves, guided by a philosophy of giving long-term contracts to young stars, will win their sixth straight title – the longest active streak in the majors – by two games over the payroll-heavy New York Mets, who opened the year with a luxury tax payroll of $384,314,506, according to Spotrac.
7. With two-time MVP Bryce Harper out until June after elbow surgery, the Philadelphia Phillies will not retain their unlikely NL pennant of 2022. But newly-signed shortstop Trea Turner will provide much-needed speed at the top of the lineup and lead the league with 78 stolen bases, thanks to bigger bases and newly-mandated limits on pick-off throws.
8. For the first time since 2014, three managers will be elected to the Hall of Fame. That will happen during the Nashville Winter Meetings, when the 16-member Contemporary Era Committee meets to consider non-players who made significant contributions to the game after 1980. The likely winners: Lou Piniella, Jim Leyland, and — if he retires after this season — Dusty Baker, who took five teams to the playoffs before winning his first World Series ring as a manager last year.
9. The best pitchers of the year will be Verlander, who will win his fourth Cy Young Award but first as a National Leaguer; Ohtani, who will top his 15-9 record and 2.33 ERA over 28 starts last season; and Atlanta’s Spencer Strider, who will lead the majors in strikeouts and pitch the only complete-game no-hitter of 2023 in his first full season as a starter.
10. The National League will win the Seattle All-Star Game in a 14-11 slugfest, creating records for most runs by one league and most runs in a single Midsummer Classic. Spurred by the Home Run Derby that took place that night before, the leagues will produce two-homer performances by Aaron Judge, Pete Alonso, and a fully-healed Ronald Acuna, Jr. The game will mark the end of a nine-year winning streak by the American League.
11. In the first year of his nine-year, $360 million contract extension, Judge will power the Yankees to a commanding American League East victory over the Toronto Blue Jays. But the towering outfielder won’t reach 60 homers again or retain his MVP trophy, which will go back to Ohtani.
12. Long before the 30 teams gather again for the December winter meetings, the Los Angeles Angels and Washington Nationals will have new ownership and the Oakland Athletics should have a new place to play. The A’s will be the first team to represent four different cities (Philadelphia, Kansas City, Oakland, and Las Vegas).
