Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is making a mockery of major league pitching right now.
He’s also making history after becoming the youngest Blue Jays player to hit three home runs in a game, and the second youngest in MLB to do so in the last 50 years.
And soon, he could be making a lot of money.
Guerrero, 22, has just over a year of service time in the big leagues. But even with the likes of teammate Bo Bichette (23) and Juan Soto (22) rocking big league pitching early in their careers, it could be Vlad Jr. who is the next early-20s rising star to sign a mega-contract extension.
We’ve seen guys get extended sooner and with less service time recently – in some cases before they even debuted in the majors – but as far as high eight- and nine-figure deals go, the best comparisons appears to be Ronald Acuña Jr., who snagged a comfy eight-year, $100 million extension in two years ago, and Fernando Tatis Jr., who signed a record 14-year, $340 million after two years of service time.
Acuña’s deal is the largest for a player with his service time – he had just 165 days – and it’s looking like a bargain as he’s blossoming into one of the best, most exciting players in the game. Same goes for Tatis, who’s one of the faces of the sport right now.
The way things are looking, Guerrero’s ceiling seems to be just as high as both those peers.
Entering play Thursday, Guerrero was hitting .346/.474/.667 with a 1.141 OPS, seven home runs and 19 RBI. His 221 OPS+ was good for third in the majors, just ahead of Acuña, ironically.
Looking at other advanced stats, Guerrero’s 218 wRC+ was third in baseball – again just ahead of Acuña – and his 1.7 fWAR was just behind world leader Mike Trout (1.9) and Acuña (1.8).
Those are elite numbers on par with the game’s best.
When Guerrero first broke into the big leagues as a heralded prospect and the son of Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero Sr., there was definitely a wait-and-see approach when it came to a contract extension. There were some concerns about his body type, because at 6-foot-2, Guerrero’s 250-pound frame wasn’t ideal, especially for a third baseman.
Then, when summer camp arrived and players showed up to prepare for the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Guerrero was out of shape despite trimming down a bit over the winter. The pandemic weight stuck to him like it did a lot of people stuck indoors.
Guerrero apologized to his teammates for showing up that way, and entering spring training this year, he noted he’d lost 42 pounds since July. That, plus a move to first base, has Guerrero looking like a player who’s very appealing long-term. One worthy of an extension.
And if we’re using Acuña and Tatis as benchmarks, and given the tight spending after the pandemic, 10 years and $200 million could satisfy both sides. The Blue Jays lock up a pillar of their future, and paying an average annual value of just $20 million, and Guerrero gets his life-changing money, even though he may be leaving a little cash on the table later.
The Blue Jays may opt to wait until they have more of a track record for Guerrero – and Bichette – but they shouldn’t wait too long. At this rate, the price is only going up.
