This has been one slow-developing MLB free agent market. Early on, it was the respective courtships of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto that held sway. Both landed with the Dodgers, and the exorbitant amount of deferred money included in the Ohtani pact enabled the club to remain engaged on other free agents and trade opportunities as the postseason continued to unfold.

Well here we are at the ides of January and there are still some big fish remaining in the free agent pond. Perhaps foremost among them is last year’s National League Cy Young winner, Blake Snell, who last pitched for the Padres.

Why hasn’t he signed yet? Well, the answer is pretty easy once you consider the identity of his agent. Scott Boras has long dictated the terms of baseball offseasons, and he often gets what he and his client want.

A lot of people point to Boras as what has gone wrong with the game of baseball in recent times. I take a different position. I worked in MLB front offices for many years and have dealt with countless agents, of varying abilities and profiles. As in any industry, there are good and bad, from both a personal and professional perspective. But also as in any industry, the very best stand out.

Boras is really, really good at what he does. Sure, he grandstands more than most, and his court-holding sessions with the media, filled with forced metaphors and non-sequiturs, have gotten old. But he goes to war for his clients, and from a club’s perspective, his word can generally be trusted.

And Boras’ “word” right now is that he’s looking for a 9-year, $270 million deal for Snell. Now, your first reaction might be that this just might be the going rate for an elite, top of the majors pitcher in his prime. Which leads us to a pair of key questions - is he an elite/top of the majors pitcher, and is he in his prime?

Snell won the 2023 NL Cy in a unanimous runaway, which I thought was ridiculous. My batted ball-based method ranked him 5th in the NL, with 17.5 Total Pitching Runs Above Average (TPRAA). Now this method admittedly isn’t the be-all and end-all, but it’s proven to be pretty reliable and accurate. He narrowly trailed a pair of Brewer starters, Corbin Burnes (23.6 TPRAA) and Freddy Peralta (21.0 TPRAA) who finished 3rd and 4th. Those three pitchers are bunched pretty tightly together. You want to take Snell over Burnes and Peralta? Sure, go ahead.

Then there’s Zack Wheeler (31.8 TPRAA) and Spencer Strider (30.9 TPRAA). They’re a totally different story. Pitchers have three basic jobs - maximize strikeouts, minimize walks and manage contact. And perhaps just as importantly, complement the quality of your performance with as much quantity - innings bulk - as possible.

Strider had a far better K rate than Snell, who was a bit ahead of Wheeler in that category. Wheeler was by far the best contact manager, with Snell next and Strider quite a bit behind. Walks? Well, Snell walked more batters than anyone in the majors and had a higher walk rate than any qualifying starter. Wheeler was best there, ahead of Strider. Innings pitched? Wheeler, followed by Strider and then Snell. Yes, Snell led the league in ERA, but his 54 ERA- is a lucky outlier compared to his 80 FIP- and 80 “Tru”- (my batted ball-based ERA estimator).

Now, you can concede the point that Wheeler and Strider were better in 2023 while still insisting that Snell is worth the investment that Boras is seeking. I am accepting the fact that on a per-inning basis, Snell is one of the premier starters in the major leagues.

A couple important points, however - a potential employer is paying for Snell’s future, not his past, and that past - especially the all important innings bulk - needs to be studied to project his future.

Snell is entering his age 31 season, while Ohtani is entering his age 29 and Yamamoto his age 25 seasons. Ohtani’s deal takes him through age 38 (and even if his arm blows out by then he’ll likely still be a productive hitter) and Yamamoto’s through age 36. A nine-year pact would take Snell through age 39.

Then there’s the elephant in the room. Can you guess how many times Blake Snell has pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title?

Two. Yup, two, the two years he won Cy Young Awards, 2018 and 2023. Otherwise, he’s never even come close - his third-highest innings total was 129 1/3 in 2017. (He did pitch 50 innings in the 60-game 2020 season that was shortened by the COVID-19 pandemic.)

He has never pitched a complete game. He has never averaged six innings per start in a season. In his eight MLB seasons, he has averaged LESS THAN 5 innings per start as many times as he’s exceeded that level.

Great pitchers who withstand the test of time have elite fastballs. You know, the Scherzers and the Verlanders. Snell’s changeup, curve and slider are all excellent offerings - his fastball is by far his worst pitch.

Given that last handful of facts, is this a guy you want to pay top dollar through his age 39 season? Personally, I’d have no problem paying him big money over a much shorter time frame (no more than five years), knowing that I’m still taking a big swing that has a chance of coming up way short.

Now this isn’t Boras’ first rodeo - while outlandishly large asking prices have resulted in pots of gold for his clients in the past, he might shooting for the moon before eventually settling for the stars in this case. Honestly, I think Snell’s market will ultimately be more fruitful than that of another current Boras free agent, Cody Bellinger. But 9 for 270 would be an absolute non-starter for me, and very likely will be for all 30 MLB clubs as well.