It all comes down to one timeless question in Philadelphia: Pats or Genos? No, the other question: Will the Phillies ever win again?

The Phils havent produced a winning season since 2011. They have the longest postseason drought in the National League (nine seasons and counting) and second-longest in baseball. And, for a team whose payroll is pushing $200 million, another 162-game dud would be unacceptable.

But now is not the time for negativity, with the Phillies opening their season on Thursday against the Braves at Citizens Bank Park. Now is the time to figure out if the team can give its fanbase a long-overdue Red October.

If the Phils win this year, it wont be because of stars Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto justifying monster contracts. The Phils will win if their pitching prevails.

First, the rotation. The front-end looks solid, not sensational, with Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Zach Eflin. Newcomers Matt Moore and Chase Anderson have been brought in to stabilize the rotations back-end, which has been shaky for too many years.

Moore, who impressed last year in Japan, doesnt possess the triple-digit fastball that made him the games hottest pitching prospect nine years ago, and he hasnt had a quality big-league season since 2016 when he won 12 games. But he looks like a comeback-story candidate, unfurling several strong outings this spring. Anderson, who has a respectable 4.06 ERA in seven big-league seasons, eats innings and should provide the team with quality starts from the No. 5 spot.

Now, the bullpen. One word for it last year: apocalyptic. And it led to the teams demise. The reconstructed 2021 pen looks massively upgraded with an army of new arms, most notably Archie Bradley and Jose Alvarado, who will anchor the Phils end game. Bradley is a vet who knows how to navigate the ninth inning. And Alvarado, a lefty, has the look of a bullpen monster, striking out 11 in 6.2 innings this spring. His snaking 101-mph fastball is one of the cruelest pitches in the game. Former closer Hector Neris (yep, hes still around) and new guy Brandon Kintzler (12 saves with the Marlins last season) will contribute some late-inning help.

Heres what could go wrong yeah, this is gonna hurt, Phillies fans September.

For three consecutive years, the Phillies have crumbled during the final month of the season, blowing postseason dreams that looked inevitable. It will be manager Joe Girardis job to keep his squad calm and confident to prevent another stretch-run meltdown. Its also general manager Dave Dombrowskis job to find the mid-season ingredient that will boost the teams chances come September.

Hyped pitching prospect Spencer Howard, who was slowed by back spasms this spring, will start the season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. If he pitches well, Howard could be first call to slide into the rotation if needed. Other likely pitching reinforcements well see at some point this season include Adonis Medina, JoJo Romero and Ranger Suarez. Scott Kingery once a cornerstone piece to the team is back in the minors after his horrid spring followed a wretched 2020. The Phils hope the versatile Kingery can quickly find his stroke and rejoin the club. And former top draft pick Mickey Moniaks solid spring finally gave the Phillies some hope, and, if the kid hits at Triple-A, he could find himself in centerfield in Philly.

On paper, the Phillies are improved from a year ago with a better bench, bullpen and back-end of the rotation. But heres the problem: The NL East is a beast. The Mets and Nationals have bolstered their teams. The Braves are legit contenders. And dont discount the Marlins, who made the playoffs last year with one of the most talented young pitching staffs in baseball. So where will the Phillies fall? TBD, of course.

But lets go with some rare Philly optimism: The Phillies will take third place and win the second wild card spot with 88 wins. That would be a massive victory for a team that hasnt had a winning record since 2011, and it would finally give their fans what theyve wanted for a decade: a Red October.