The best thing about being a Mets fan these days is dreaming big. With one stroke of Steve Cohen’s pen upon his purchase of the team, absolutely anything became possible.
Shohei Ohtani — one of baseball’s best sluggers and also one of its best pitchers — is due for the biggest free agency ever at year’s end, and ya gotta believe that Cohen, that noted collector of great art and greater ballplayers, has a decent chance to be in the middle of the bidding.
There were hints five years ago that Ohtani didn’t want to go to New York, and one baseball executive said Ohtani told him as much flat out — though obviously with benefit of traveling throughout the bigs for half a decade, tastes can change, which is what his handlers say. And few see anything like that deterring Cohen, who also seems only slightly affected by the famous fourth-tier, 90 percent “Steve Cohen tax” (and maybe only if something comes up on the physical). Just as key, he appears determined to make good on his promise to bring a World Series title to Queens by 2025.
Several enticing free-agent opportunities are sure to populate next winter’s market, with Buck Showalter favorite Manny Machado plus Matt Chapman, Julio Urias, Aaron Nola, Josh Hader and, thanks to the opt-out in his record Mets contract, their own Max Scherzer all destined for free agency. But the big prize is baseball’s best player, so the speculation is sure to get crazy.
Now is a good time to start — though as is Showalter’s way, the Mets say they are uber-focused on the present and generally undistracted by the free-agent game.
And even Cohen, reached via text, responded to an Ohtani inquiry this way: “Hard to think about next year. I’m focused on this season.”
Of course, it’s not just fans thinking big here. Here’s one Mets person speaking about his assumption regarding Ohtani (and probably most everyone else’s too): “The Mets will make Ohtani the best-paid player in the history of sports — whether he plays for the Mets or not — because the offer will be insane. And if someone else wants to beat it go ahead.”
Yet another Mets person also guesses Ohtani will be “the big prize,” with interest expected, too, in the pitching triumvirate of Scherzer, Urias and Nola.
(To be clear, these are only predictions. Cohen has not told anyone this as far as is known.)
Anyway, it’s no surprise folks behind the scenes are gossiping again about the possibility once word got out that Cohen has a trip to Japan planned, never mind that it’s too early to contact potential free agents and Ohtani is already in the U.S. Just in case, I checked, and Cohen clarified that he’s meeting in Kyoto with his staff, which is about his day job, and not related to Ohtani.
Speaking of which, that equity thing is doing fabulously, and even in a spectacularly terrible market in 2022, Cohen reportedly made $2.4 billion for investors, which makes the Mets’ record estimated $382 million 2023 payroll and record $109M tax bill seem almost like pocket change. More to the point, Forbes’ old $17 billion estimate of Cohen’s net worth has to be way short following his boffo year on the floor. Even at the $17B figure, he has the biggest bankroll of the owners by about double and the most obvious resolve to win The Ohtani Derby, which many experts predicted here will exceed $500M, and is unlikely to scare him.
The match seems obvious, especially since the Cohen Mets are expected now to win perennially. But of course, nothing’s perfect and nothing’s predictable in free agency.
This isn’t either, and, and here’s why:
1. Five of his seven finalists five years ago were teams located on the West Coast, and none on the East Coast. And no surprise, the Dodgers, Giants and Padres will once again likely join the incumbent Angels in The Ohtani Derby. Of course, everyone assumes he’s gone from the Angels. Their best hope was if owner Arte Moreno sold to Warriors owner and interested party Joe Lacob, who has run his NBA payroll into Cohen territory and also shown a willingness to pay hundreds of millions in tax. But the Dodgers loom as the other biggest threat.
2. Ohtani doesn’t seem to be about the money. He delayed free agency instead coming over here early to show he’s a two-way whiz and has been underpaid by tens of millions to this point, without a hint of public complaint.
3. While Cohen has risk tolerance we’ve never seen before, he does have limits. He lost Carlos Correa since he wouldn’t have matched the $33M salary in the Twins’ deal, which would have resulted in $63M for him counting the 90 percent Steve Cohen tax. What’s more, the Cohen tax will rise to 110 percent for third-time payors in 2024, so if Ohtani’s deal is for $50M a year, that’d be $105M for Cohen.
That potential $105M annual outlay for Ohtani alone is enough to discourage anyone. Almost anyone, anyway.
