Following the Phillies postseason run in 2022 which shocked the baseball world as they fell just two wins short of a World Series championship, the expectations surrounding the team have changed dramatically. Philadelphia followed up on its surprise run with a busy offseason, landing Trea Turner on an 11-year deal while bolstering the pitching staff with multiyear deals for Taijuan Walker and Matt Strahm. The club also bolstered its bench and bullpen with one-year deals and trades, adding Josh Harrison and Kody Clemens to the club’s bench options while adding Craig Kimbrel and Gregory Soto to the late-inning mix.
In addition to external additions, the club has been active in extending both players and personnel. President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski, GM Sam Fuld, and relievers Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado have all been extended since the postseason concluded. The club has reportedly exchanged offers with ace right-hander Aaron Nola as well, indicating a desire from every corner of the Phillies organization to keep this group together for the foreseeable future. Despite this apparent desire, however, Ken Rosenthal and Matt Gelb report at The Athletic that longtime Phillie Rhys Hoskins may not be part of those plans, as the club and Hoskins have yet to begin extension talks.
Hoskins, 30 next month, is set to become a free agent following the 2023 season. The slugger came up through the minor leagues as a first baseman, but spent the early part of his major league career primarily playing left field in deference to Carlos Santana before returning to the cold corner following a trade that sent Santana to Seattle. Wherever he’s played the field throughout his career, however, Hoskins has always hit: in six seasons a big leaguer, Hoskins has never finished a campaign with a wRC+ below his 2019 figure of 112, or 12% better than league average.
For his career, Hoskins is a 125 wRC+ hitter with a slash line of .242/.353/.492 and 304 extra base hits in 667 games. While Hoskins strikes out at an elevated clip (25.1% in 2022), he more than makes up for that deficiency with his proclivity for drawing free passes. Hoskins boasts a 13.5% career walk rate and even as his walk rate has ticked downward in recent years, his 10.7% rate in 2022 still ranked in the 80th percentile of all qualified hitters, per Statcast.
As Rosenthal and Gelb note, the market for first basemen this past offseason would indicate that Hoskins could aim for a deal in the $20MM AAV range on the open market. That’s above what Josh Bell received from the Guardians but right in line with what Anthony Rizzo and Jose Abreu received from the Yankees and Astros, respectively. Bell is younger than Hoskins but lacks his track record of consistency and opted for a short term deal that would allow him to return to the open market following the 2023 season. Rizzo and Abreu, meanwhile, have stronger overall resumes to this point in their careers, but are several years older than Hoskins, meaning their current contracts are set to take them into their mid-to-late thirties.
While an AAV in the range of $20MM might be a reasonable estimate for Hoskins on the open market, it’s understandable why the Phillies may be hesitant to make such a commitment. After all, the club already features Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos as defensively-limited sluggers on high dollar contracts, and it’s possible that Bryce Harper, whose work in the outfield defensive metrics had largely soured on in recent years even before his Tommy John surgery last November, could be viewed similarly as he enters his thirties. With each of those sluggers locked up through at least 2025, it would hardly be a surprise if Dombrowski’s front office decided that the resources required to retain Hoskins would be better utilized elsewhere, such as in extending Nola.
Should Hoskins hit the market, he seems poised to be among the best bats of a 2023-24 free agent class that lacks much position playing star power outside of two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani. Fellow corner slugger Teoscar Hernandez and Gold Glove third baseman Matt Chapman are among the other players headed towards the open market. That being said, barring a significant downturn in performance from Hoskins in 2023, he seems like a prime candidate to be tendered a Qualifying Offer by the Phillies in order to recoup some value should he sign elsewhere. As a team paying into the luxury tax, the Phillies would receive a 2024 draft pick after the fourth round as compensation for any qualified free agent who signs elsewhere in the coming offseason.
