Northwestern and Maryland are two pass-happy attacks, ranking around 30th nationally in pass rate (between 53% and 55%).
At the beginning of the year, I wouldn’t have been too encouraged about either of these passing attacks producing.
But each has shown life in recent weeks.
Maryland quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. has made big strides in his junior year, completing more than 70% of his passes with 13 big-time throws and 11 touchdowns to only two interceptions on five turnover-worthy plays. Behind 1,400 yards at 8.2 YPA, Edwards ranks among the top 30 FBS quarterbacks in EPA per Dropback.
He should have no issues shredding Northwestern’s lifeless, hapless, useless secondary. The Wildcats rank among the bottom 15 FBS teams in EPA per Dropback allowed and Pass Success Rate allowed, while ranking 95th nationally in Pro Football Focus’s Coverage grades.
Northwestern’s top three cornerbacks – Theran Johnson, Evan Smith, and Braden Turner – have been targeted 79 times and allowed 56 receptions for 650 yards, suitable for a 70% completion rate at almost 12 YPA.
Over the past two weeks, Washington’s Will Rogers and Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke combined to complete 75% of their passes for 630 yards and five touchdowns.
Edwards might have a career day Friday night.
Meanwhile, I’ve been surprised by Northwestern quarterback Jack Lausch, who earned the starting job over Mike Wright in Week 3.
He made some impressive, explosive throws against Indiana last week, completing 23-of-38 passes (61%) for 250 yards and two scores.
Northwestern’s offensive line ranks top 20 nationally in PFF’s Pass Blocking grades, so the Wildcats should neutralize Maryland’s strong pass rush, giving Lausch enough time to throw downfield against a Terps secondary that ranks 86th nationally in Pass Explosiveness allowed.
I think the market is underestimating how improved these two Big Ten quarterbacks are. And while both defenses boast strong front sevens, both offenses want to attack over the top.
I’m banking on a sneaky high-scoring game in College Park on Friday. I project the total closer to 50 than 45.
Pick: Over 45.5 (-108, DraftKings)
Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, he’s a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and any home underdog. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot on Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.
