FOX Sports' 26-and-under power rankings are a new spin on the classic prospect rankings. Yes, prospects are important, but with all the game-changing young talent already in the bigs, farm systems alone can’t tell the whole story. So we’re diving deep into every single MLB club, ranking them all by the players in an organization entering their age-26 season or younger — from the bigs to the farm. Each weekday through March 24, we’ll count down from last to first.
No. 29 San Francisco Giants26-and-under total score: 12 (out of 30)
In 2018, the Dodgers' influx of young talent helped them to a second straight World Series appearance, the Padres boasted the top farm system in the game and the Giants sought out a new direction after a second straight losing season. It made sense, then, why Farhan Zaidi was plucked from Los Angeles to guide the Giants' path forward.
Just three years later, the new regime extracted the best out of a veteran group in a franchise-best 107-win season. But sustained success becomes trickier without much help from the farm, and a .500 season last year demonstrated the work in progress of the young talent pipeline overhaul in San Francisco.
Since the consecutive selections of Tim Lincecum (2006), Madison Bumgarner (2007) and Buster Posey (2008), most of the Giants’ top picks either haven’t panned out yet or have done so for different organizations. That mattered less when the Giants were winning World Series championships in 2010, 2012 and 2014 than it does now, as they’ve made the postseason just once in the past six years.
The Giants haven't completely failed to identify talent, however.
In 2009, they drafted Zack Wheeler, but they flipped him two years later for an injury-riddled half-season of Carlos Beltrán. Their first-round pick in 2013, Christian Arroyo, played in 34 games for the Giants before being traded for Evan Longoria. Their top pick in 2015, Phil Bickford, was traded for pitcher Will Smith and is now a depth piece in the Dodgers' bullpen. Their top selection in 2016, Bryan Reynolds, was dealt to Pittsburgh for Andrew McCutchen in 2018. Three years later, Reynolds became an All-Star center fielder for the Pirates.
The jury is still out on the first-rounders selected since then, though the early returns from Heliot Ramos (2017), Joey Bart (2018), Hunter Bishop (2019), Patrick Bailey (2020) and Will Bednar (2021) aren’t as promising as many would’ve hoped. Injuries and first-round whiffs have dropped the Giants toward the back half of most farm system rankings entering the 2023 season, with little youth on the current roster and little outside of pitcher Kyle Harrison and infielder Casey Schmitt expected to make a significant big-league impact in the coming year.
Until more prospects pan out, they’ll have to continue mining the free-agent field and finding value in savvy trades to try to replicate their 2021 success. That's a tall task when attempting to push Los Angeles and San Diego for the division crown.
Big-league pitchers: 6 (out of 10)
At just 26 years old, Logan Webb has already developed into the star of the Giants’ rotation by becoming the best ground-ball pitcher in the National League. His breakout 2021 campaign was a highlight of the Giants’ surprising 107-win season.
While his strikeout rate and velocity both dipped slightly last year, the 2014 fourth-round pick still finished 11th in Cy Young Award voting while posting career bests in WAR (4.7), ERA (2.92) and innings (192.1). It will be interesting to see how, if at all, the new shift rules might impact ground-ball savants such as Webb, but regardless, his success has been crucial for a rotation otherwise built around veterans.
The Giants’ two best young pitchers should start and finish their most important games. The former, Webb, throws in the low-90s. The latter, 25-year-old Camilo Doval, touched 104 mph in a September game against Arizona last season and threw 70 pitches at 101 mph or faster.
Doval will be the likely answer at closer for the foreseeable future. He saved 27 games last season and struck out 80 batters in 67.2 innings. While he saw his walk rate jump from 8.3% in 2021 to 10.5% in 2022, he also cut his home run rate by more than double. The sinker he added last season could help keep hitters more off balance, particularly against lefties who have barreled his cutter. Also, his slider does this:
Prospect pitchers: 3 (out of 5)
The most exciting Giants player might not be on the 40-man roster yet.
Young starting pitching has been tough to come by in recent years for the Giants, which is part of the reason they took pitchers with each of their first nine draft picks in 2021 and each of their first six picks last year. But they might have unearthed a gem from the class prior.
Harrison, a 2020 third-round selection, is now the best left-handed pitching prospect in baseball. At just 21 years old, he has already overpowered hitters at the Single-A and Double-A levels. His 186 strikeouts ranked second among all minor-leaguers last season. The Giants don’t necessarily need to bolster their rotation immediately, but they might want to keep a seat warm.
Most of San Francisco's other top pitching prospects are at least a year away from seriously competing for a rotation spot. They could, however, help to bolster the bullpen. Cole Waites, a 2019 18th-round pick, debuted as a reliever last season after posting a 16.4 K/9 across three minor-league levels. He may need to develop his slider more to get hitters off his high-velocity fastball.
Behind Waites, a couple Giants prospects will have to improve their command to successfully make the leap. Randy Rodriguez, a 23-year-old who ascended similarly to Waites through the Giants’ system last year, fanned 97 batters in 66.2 minor league innings but struggled at the upper levels after walking 19 of the 81 batters he faced at Double-A and Triple-A. The Giants also traded for Phillies prospect Erik Miller, a 2019 fourth-round pick who reached Triple-A Lehigh Valley last year before control issues halted his progress.
Name to Watch: Mason Black. The player selected two rounds after Bednar in 2021 offers intrigue as a potential down-the-line starter. Black needed just eight starts at Single-A before earning a promotion last season.
Big-league position players: 1 (out of 10)
There’s a reason the Giants felt compelled to sign Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto and tried to find a face-of-the-franchise talent this offseason.
If all went according to plan, Bart and Ramos would be foundational fixtures in a Giants lineup that included Aaron Judge or Carlos Correa. But the prospects have struggled to hit, and the cream of the free-agent crop will be doing their damage elsewhere.
Being the heir apparent to Posey is no simple task. Bart hasn't made contact consistently at the major-league level and is entering his age-26 season with a career 38% strikeout rate. A reset at Triple-A Sacramento last year wasn’t able to get him back on track. Based on the current roster construction, it does seem like the former second overall pick will continue to get plenty of opportunities to make a jump offensively.
There should also be playing time ahead for infielder David Villar, even if he doesn’t end up starting, particularly with the departures of Longoria and Brandon Belt. The 26-year-old former 11th-round pick wasn’t the top prospect Bart was, but Villar has hit at every level — he mashed 47 homers in 191 games between Double-A and Triple-A the last two years — and was a 1.3-WAR player in his first 52 major-league games last season. Villar gave himself a building-off point upon getting called back up in September last year by slashing .269/.327/.570 with eight home runs in his final 29 games.
Prospect position players: 2 (out of 5)
Most of the Giants’ top position player prospects either got hurt or didn’t make the jump many expected last season.
Ramos and Bart, the Giants’ 2017 and 2018 top picks, respectively, have thus far looked overmatched against big-league pitching. Ramos' stint in the major last year lasted only nine games. The outfield prospect went 2-for-20 before struggling at Triple-A Sacramento in his age-22 season, slashing .227/.305/.349 with 11 home runs in 108 games.
On a more positive note, the hype is real around Marco Luciano, one of the top-rated prospects of the 2018 international class. But after launching 19 homers as a teenager at low-A and high-A in 2021, a back injury limited the Dominican shortstop to 65 games last season and forced him to stick at high-A. He did still exhibit his power potential in a small sample prior to the injury. Luciano is the only Giants position player on most top-100 prospect lists.
Outfielder Luis Matos, the Giants’ other top position player prospect and fellow product of the 2018 international class, made the 40-man roster by season’s end. But it was not the season many had envisioned. Matos missed time with a quad strain, and his highly touted contact skills translated only to a 77 wRC+. He posted a .211 batting average in 91 games at high-A after hitting .313 in 109 games at low-A in 2021. Still just 21 years old, a healthy year and an offseason to build strength could yield more positive results.
The Giants had to hope for more thus far from 2019 top pick Bishop and 2020 top pick Bailey. Injuries have limited the former’s development, while the latter, a switch-hitting catcher, has demonstrated much more ability from the left side than the right. Bailey did post an .851 OPS as a lefty last season, so perhaps he ends up sticking there.
More talent followed in both of those drafts. Outfield prospect Grant McCray, a 2019 third-round pick, showcased his well-rounded skills by launching 23 homers with 43 stolen bases between low-A and high-A. In the following draft, the Giants took Schmitt in the second round and Harrison in the third. Given Schmitt’s defensive potential at third base and the way he hit across three levels last season, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Schmitt reach the majors at some point this year.
Name to Watch: Vaun Brown. McCray’s 43 steals didn’t lead the organization. That honor belonged to Brown, a 2021 10th-rounder who stole 44 bases while tearing the cover off the baseball to earn a promotion to Double-A. Brown finished the year with an organization-best 175 wRC+, slashing a combined .346/.437/.623 at low-A, high-A and Double-A.
Rowan Kavner covers the Dodgers and NL West for FOX Sports. He previously was the Dodgers’ editor of digital and print publications. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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