As recently as 2020, Kyle Hendricks was getting Cy Young votes. In that truncated season, he posted a 2.88 ERA and the second-lowest WHIP (0.996) of his career. But within two years, he was shut down for the season with a shoulder issue that could derail the rest of his career.

Getting right again has ramifications for both Hendricks and the Cubs. For him, there’s the $16 million club option for 2024. For the Cubs, there’s a chance to be serious contenders for the top of the division again.

Hendricks is only 33, and the past two seasons of struggle notwithstanding, he has amassed an impressive resume. If he is healthy again and performs well this year, Hendricks has a good chance of his option being picked up in 2024. From there, he will still be young enough to explore free agency.

But a recent article in The Athletic might cast some doubts of that happening. Hendricks spoke to The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and made clear that he stands little chance to be ready for opening day on March 30. As Mooney reported, Hendricks is weeks away from throwing off of a mound, and the capsular tear in his right shoulder sapped its strength, forcing Hendricks into rebuilding his shoulder and body strength. There’s no guarantee once he does start throwing off of a mound that Hendricks will be able to regain his form as a pitcher.

“You just have to constantly be adapting,” Hendricks told Mooney. “We’re on the right track.”

The Cubs would like to hope so. They have quietly had one of their most successful offseasons in a while, and maybe even one of the best in the league this winter. But all those good vibes only exist on paper for now.

There is a lot that can go right and create a scenario where the Cubs are legitimate division contenders. There’s no question the addition of Jameson Taillon should make the rotation better. If Cody Bellinger can hit again — a question mark perhaps as large as Hendricks — then watch out. And that’s not to mention the first base platoon of Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer that has a high ceiling, or what the burgeoning prospect pool could bring at the major league level as the season progresses.

It’s still a long jump from going 74-88 in 2022 to competing with the Cardinals and, to a lesser extent, the Brewers. As team chairman Tom Ricketts called it at the Cubs Convention on January 14, his team is at an inflection point. There’s a different energy in the Cubs organization. A feeling that the painful period of being deadline sellers is over.

“They’ve taken advantage of their opportunities. Some of them really jumped on it and have become pieces for us now. Jed saw all that happen,” Hendricks told Mooney, describing the progress among some of the organization’s younger players. “Now you bring in these established, winning-type players that have won through their whole lives and won at the highest level.

“That’s really where everything started when I first got here. You just saw great people that were so competitive and loved the game. That’s really the vibe you get from every single one of these guys that you meet. That makes me super excited. Everyone on the team feels it.”

There are still a lot of variables, making the 2023 Cubs still something closer to the 2014 or maybe the 2015 iterations. Many of the right pieces are there, but it’s still too lofty to think of them as top tier contenders.

But that could be where Hendricks comes in. If he can regain something akin to his pre-2021 form, the Cubs would have a starting rotation capable of taking the team far. With Marcus Stroman, Hendricks, and Taillon at the top, younger pitchers and role players like Justin Steele, Drew Smyly, and Keegan Thompson would slide into roles where they could make an impact whether in the rotation or in long relief.

It’s also important to consider that with the defensive shift going away, pitchers — like Hendricks — who pitch to contact and yield a lot of ground balls are going to be even more important. In his best years, Hendricks’ ground ball rate hovered around 50 percent. For the past two years, the highest team averages have been five points lower. In 84 1/3 innings in 2022, Hendricks’ ground ball rate was about 36 percent, the worst of his career. A healthy shoulder and improved mechanics would likely bring that number back up closer to his career average of 46 percent.

An improved ground ball rate is a small facet of the overall picture, but it’s enough to help Hendricks return to something closer to the guy who was entrusted with starting Game 7 of the 2016 World Series. This all hinges on a genuinely healthy shoulder, and one that can withstand a full season again. And we are still weeks away from seeing whether or not his shoulder is feeling right again.

But if it is, Hendricks might be the difference between another year of Cubs rebuilding and a return to playing in October.