Honestly, Carlos Correa’s free agency saga is a unique chapter in baseball’s long history. After exercising the opt-out clause in his contract after one season with the Minnesota Twins, he first signed with the San Francisco Giants for 13 years and $350M. After issues cropped up on his physical, he went back on the market, eventually signing with the New York Mets for 12 years and $315M.
That was about three weeks ago. During the holiday season, it was crickets out of the Met camp as it became apparent that similar issues had arisen on their physical exam. Enter the Twins, who have now signed Correa for six years and $200M, with vesting options that could make the contract worth $270M over 10 years.
This was the Year of the Shortstop in free agency, with Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson also hitting the market. They all made bank - Turner signed with the Phillies for 11 years, $300M, Bogaerts with the Padres for 11 years, $280M and Swanson with the Cubs for seven years, $177M.
I wrote about this group way back at the beginning of the offseason, and made it clear that Correa was my first choice. One, at age 28 in 2023, he was the youngest of the group, Two, he had the best all-around offensive track record. And three, his present tools are the best, and project to age better.
Turner is extremely dependent on his speed, which is likely to fade before long. Bogaerts really doesn’t hit the ball very hard, and has been helped by Fenway Park throughout his career. Though Swanson’s 2022 season was the best of the group, it was arguably the only above average offensive season of his career, and his K/BB profile is quite poor.
The only drawback to Correa is one that has grown in stature over the winter - his physical condition, of which the public will not be shown the specifics. It is said that the Twins are already signed off on the review of his leg and ankle, the issues that scuttled his two previous agreements. He still must complete his general physical examination before the deal becomes official. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that this deal won’t reach the finish line, but chances are fairly remote that it will come to that.
So back to Minnesota it is. Correa has played a full season there, was productive and professed to be happy. He’s been fairly healthy the last three seasons, missing some time in 2022 due to a right middle finger contusion. Now, after an ultimately frustrating year for the Twins in which virtually their entire club was hurt in a second-half collapse, they unexpectedly get to run it back in the very winnable AL Central Division.
From the player’s perspective, Correa is obviously now guaranteed much less money overall than in either of his previous two agreements. That said, his AAV over the initial six-year period has grown substantially to $33.33M. And even if all of the (very affordable from the team perspective) vesting options kick in, only Turner will exceed the $27M per year AAV what Correa will receive.
Ultimately, the Twins were rewarded for sticking to their valuation on the player, and the player was still rewarded with a very lucrative deal despite all of the turbulence encountered along the way. (Love him or hate him, Scott Boras is very good at this job.) The Giants have scrambled to add multiple lesser players in lieu of their projected investment in Correa, and the Mets still have a record payroll, though their talent doesn’t quite match up without their would-be third baseman.
With all of the marquee free agent signings in the books, fans can now look forward to the secondary trade and free agent markets that should still produce some headlines. If you somehow had the Twins as one of the big Hot Stove winners, go and cash your ticket.