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Goold: Spring training offers chance to assess the Cardinals' depth of talent and production

Feb. 7, 2023
Goold: Spring training offers chance to assess the Cardinals' depth of talent and production

Q: The new schedule doesn't make it any easier for the Cardinals to win the Central League. Will these changes affect the composition of the roster? Will it affect the Trade Market? What do you hear from the inner circle of the Cardinals?

DG: Let me try and tackle each question individually.

1) Will these changes affect the composition of the roster?

Not likely. There's nothing about the new schedule that suggests anything other than taking the best roster for the marathon and maintaining it. The roster that could thrive with the previous schedule, is still the best bet to thrive with this one. From a purely mechanical perspective, the expanded roster of recent years will not be there for flexibility to start 2023, but that's not related to the schedule. The Cardinals will be able to carry extra players to London as a taxi squad.

2) Will it affect the Trade Market?

Inevitably, yes. There is the chance that the new schedule paired with the expanded playoffs keeps more teams in the mix for the playoffs and that means fewer sellers, more demand, and higher price at the trade deadline. We'll still moves, and maybe even some challenge trades where two teams contending for the postseason swap players to address needs.

One area that we're still not sure how will play out is if the fewer games against the division mean the Cardinals will be more open to deals within the division. Mozeliak has largely avoided them in his tenure, and when we talked to him recently about this he was not ready to move on from it — and said that the Quintana trade was an outlier, not a door opening.

3) What do you hear from the inner circle of the Cardinals?

They are in favor of the new schedule, from owner to baseball ops. They have actually quietly advocated for this shift for a while, stretching back to the departure of Houston from the NL and the fact that it took forever for the Angels and Pujols to return to STL. The Cardinals sought a more consistent turn of the interleague rotation so that such a delay would not happen. Count them among the teams that would like to have Ohtani visit. They think this will spur tickets and make for some excitement.

Q: I have heard a lot of chatter that Contreras is not the defensive catcher that Molina was. Can you tell me how they compared defensively, say for the last two or three years?

DG: He is not the defensive catcher that Molina is. His ratings for framing pitches and so on does not track with peak Molina. Now, that gap has closed here in the past few years, but Contreras still rates as — well, if you go by the defensive WAR metric available on Baseball-Reference.com, he's slightly above average. We can use that for context.

In seasons with at least 100 games at catcher, Yadier Molina ranged from 0.3 dWAR (in 2018) to 2.9 dWAR (multiple times). He had six seasons with at least a 2.0 dWAR at catcher.

Willson Contreras' career high is 1.8 dWAR (twice, last 2021). Molina has had nine seasons of 1.8 dWAR or greater.

This past season, in reduced games, he still had a 1.2 dWAR behind the plate. Contreras had a 0.5 dWAR. So that adds some more perspective. Molina was 1.5 dWAR in 2021, and that was the same year that Contreras was a 1.8. Contreras has a strong arm, solid throwing, and when needed does his part to control the running game. The new rules are going to challenge him, but he's well-suited with a willingness to throw and a true arm to change the game in that regard, and one of the things he really stressed to the Cardinals was that he's seen the defensive catchers they create and wants to be open to their instruction, to whatever they can bring to his game from the years of watching Molina or working with Molina. So, we'll see...

Q: With Spring Training right around the corner, what are you looking forward to covering the most?

DG: There should be a real chance during this spring to see where the depth of talent and production is for the Cardinals. Lots of at-bats for players trying to prove themselves after struggling (DeJong) or as they near the majors (Walker, Winn, Hence and more). That's going to give a different facet to spring training that should add welcome intensity to games while the WBC is going on. There will be gravity to those games for the players — not just getting ready.

Q: If you were the Cardinals GM tomorrow for one day what player position/pitching would you try to improve

DG: Pitching. I am told annually that I pay too much attention to innings. And yet I've yet to learn why that's wrong. So here we are.

Q: Have you had any discussions with the Cardinals brain trust about the possibility of OF shifts to close off the second base hole for extreme left handed pull hitters, essentially leaving left field unoccupied? Risk/reward, it may open a whole new can of worms.

A: I have. Oliver Marmol said that he does not expect them to do that too much — and that's mostly because MLB has made it clear to managers to avoid the "cute stuff," because then they'll just write the rule over again. They're asking teams to get in the spirit of the shift rule and not try to engineer ways around it. That said, there will be teams that experiment. And with Donovan in left field, it would make sense if, say, a left-handed slugger comes up that the Cardinals at least see how it looks then -- with Donovan, the left field, in shallow right? Could happen. Marmol made it clear that it would be the exception because MLB says they'll just update the rule if they see teams moving pieces around like this.

Q: What's the reasonable eta of Jordan walker? Opening day roster with one OF to trade while he plays RF?

DG: Opening day is reasonable. It's possible. And it will be obvious because of the playing time await him, the challenges and looks the Cardinals will give him, and how the spring will unfold. The NL has the DH now so there's not this need to trade a talented outfield. Plus, the outfielders you're discussing — some have options. If Walker outplays them, then they go to Memphis.


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