Recent injuries to multiple members of the back end of the top-25 starting pitcher ranks might influence fantasy baseball managers towards the tactic of drafting one -- if not two -- members of the "ace" positional class, and then going with a "cheap with upside" approach to the rest of their staff. It's a viable strategy considering the pitching landscape entering 2021. It's also potentially dangerous to significantly swing one's gameplan merely as a reaction to spring news.
News regarding Carlos Carrasco is the most recent and the most detrimental, in terms of fantasy value. He was diagnosed late Thursday with a high-grade hamstring tear, one projected to cost him a 6-8 week absence. From a straight scheduling standpoint, that will likely cost him between 24-36 New York Mets regular-season games. That number does not account for either early-season weather postponements or the possibility that the timetable refers only to when he might resume competitive activity (i.e. the start of a rehabilitation stint). It also assumes no setbacks in his recovery. Carrasco will miss anywhere from 5-10 starts, with the prospect of additional missed time. Throw in the fact that this injury came while he was doing his running after completing his first simulated game since battling elbow discomfort and the concern only heightens.
My offseason research surfaced evidence that Carrasco had actually been more durable than perceived from 2015-20. Putting aside a 2019 that was impacted by his battle with leukemia, Carrasco had averaged 29.5 starts per 162 team games in the other six seasons. Elbow soreness was a minor issue early in 2020, and this March setback heightens the again-valid injury question. Carrasco had reached a rankings high point of SP20 this preseason. I dropped him to SP25 as he worked through elbow issues that threatened a brief, season-opening IL stint, but now he's my SP50 -- and even at that number I'll probably be hesitant to draft him in my March 20-21 weekend leagues, knowing that his value is currently as uncertain as it'll be all spring.
As of Friday morning, Carrasco's ESPN ADP (average draft position) had dropped by 15.2 spots, sixth-most among all players. You can be sure that drop will only get larger over the next seven days. I've lowered him more than 100 overall rankings spots, so I'd expect there will be a day next week where his ADP decline reaches 75-plus.
As you head into your weekend drafts, let's continue the walk through all 30 spring training camps, examining the news and draft trends you can exploit. In addition to today's edition, look for the same examination heading into the March 27-28 weekend (the final one before Opening Day).
Following up on my Wednesday roundtable note, Shohei Ohtani got a healthy, two-overall-rounds bump in my rankings. He's now a 15th-rounder in ESPN leagues and my SP38 (he's still DH6, if you prefer that angle). He has been aggressively drafted in ESPN leagues during the past week, going 111th overall (121.4 on average), but saw only a seven-spot NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship) bump comparing March 8-14 to March 15-19 (158th overall in the latter). As Ohtani's value ranges wildly depending upon the format (daily or weekly transactions, points or roto, etc.), he's going to be one of the most important players about which to develop strong opinions. I still see him as a relative value, though that window appears to be closing.
To wrap things up, let's take a look at players clearly "off the radar" in ESPN formats who have a realistic chance at either moving within or just outside the draftable ranks in the next week. For those with March 20-21 drafts, these could serve good final-round picks if they fill a need.
