With the end of Spring Training in sight, teams are getting closer to breaking camp, and fans are finalizing their 2021 Fantasy baseball rankings. It's in stark contrast to a 2020 season that saw just 60 games played due to the still-ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Normalcy returning to Major League Baseball isn't limited to the schedule, as almost all of the 32 teams will have fans in the stands a year removed from playing in empty ballparks in front of cardboard cutouts.
Because minor league baseball was also a casualty, owners will need to pay even more attention to 2021 Fantasy baseball prospects during spring games in Arizona and Florida. Trying to determine whether players are destined to become 2021 Fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers, or busts is key. Before going on the clock, be sure to see the 2021 Fantasy baseball cheat sheets and rankings from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Last season, SportsLine's Projection Model identified several top Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts and busts, including Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant.
The team at SportsLine was all over Bryant as a Fantasy bust from the start and he went on to slash .206/.291/.351 over 34 games, failing to rank among the top 45 third baseman despite being drafted in the fifth or sixth round on average. Their model had him listed much lower than expert consensus rankings, and anyone who listened to their advice avoided a major speedbump that could have derailed their season.
Their model is powered by the same people who powered projections for all three major Fantasy sites. And that same group is sharing its 2021 Fantasy baseball rankings and cheat sheets over at SportsLine, helping you find Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts and busts long before your competition. Their cheat sheets, available for leagues on many major sites, are updated multiple times every day.
Any time more MLB news comes out about the updated 2021 MLB schedule or Fantasy baseball injuries, the team at SportsLine updates its projections. Go to SportsLine now to see these proven Fantasy baseball cheat sheets.
One of the 2021 Fantasy baseball sleepers the model is all over: Marlins second baseman Jon Berti. The 31-year-old didn't make his Major League debut until 2018 with the Blue Jays, but he's carved out an important role with the Marlins thanks to a solid plate approach and terrific speed.
Berti has posted a .362 OBP over 376 plate appearances with Miami over the last two seasons and stolen 26 bases. Berti has 28 extra-base hits during that span as well, while his 15.4 percent walk rate in 2020 indicates he has a strong feel for the strike zone. That's why the model ranks him ahead of players Tommy La Stella and Keston Hiura, who are being drafted two rounds earlier on average in standard CBS Sports Fantasy baseball leagues.
One of the 2021 Fantasy baseball breakouts the model is all over: Tigers shortstop Willi Castro. The 23-year-old struggled to a .624 OPS over 110 plate appearances in 2019, but flipped the switch in 2020 and slashed .349/.381/.550 while hitting six home runs and driving in 24.
Castro benefited from a .449 BABIP that he won't be able to keep up, but even with the positive batted-ball luck, his expected batting average was in the 96th percentile among all Major Leaguers. Castro now has a firm grasp on the starting shortstop job in Detroit and has plenty of power potential given his frame. That's why the model likes him over shortstops like Adalberto Mondesi and Javier Baez, who are being drafted four rounds earlier on average.
One of the 2021 Fantasy baseball busts the model is fading: Cubs shortstop Javier Baez. Choosing Baez in 2021 means you're drafting past results over recent performance, as the 28-year-old Puerto Rican has made two All-Star Game appearances and finished second in the 2018 NL MVP voting. However, Baez hit just .203 in 2020 and struck out an alarming 75 times with just seven walks. Baez's incredible glove is flashy for highlight shows, but the .262 BABIP last season that was over 70 points over his career number is cause for plenty of concern.
Baez's decline showed itself in a variety of ways in 2020, with his barrel rate dropping from 12.7 percent to 8.1 percent and his average exit velocity falling from 91.1 mph to 89.4 mph. Combine that with a walk rate that was 28 percent below his strikeout rate and it is easy to see why SportsLine's model ranks him below shortstops like Elvis Andrus, Jorge Polanco and David Fletcher, all of whom are available at least seven rounds later in standard CBS Sports Fantasy baseball leagues.
SportsLine is also high on a right fielder with a 2021 Fantasy baseball ADP barely outside the top 100 who finishes ahead of studs like defending Bryce Harper and Aaron Judge. This pick could be the difference in winning your league or going home with nothing. You can only see who it is here.
So which 2021 Fantasy baseball busts, breakouts, and sleepers should you target or fade in your drafts? Visit SportsLine now to get 2021 Fantasy baseball rankings for every single position, all from the model that called Kris Bryant's disappointing season, and find out.