Oakland Athletics right-hander Trevor Rosenthal feels like the ultimate risk/reward relief pitcher for fantasy baseball purposes. He's possibly one of the best values in live drafts -- or perhaps he's one of the worst. After all, Rosenthal has been anything but predictable in his unique career. He saved 93 games for the 2014-2015 St. Louis Cardinals, struggled in 2016, flourished again in 2017, needed Tommy John surgery in 2018, walked nearly one-third of the hitters he faced in a brief 2019 season and then, in 2020, he was awesome again.
Anyone that says they know for sure how Rosenthal will perform in 2021 is telling a tale. Rosenthal's current ADP has him just outside the top-10 relief pitchers, but that is an obvious hedge. Rosenthal finished the 2020 season ranked fourth among closers on the ESPN Player Rater, a shade behind Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand and Alex Colome. He is certainly capable of challenging Hendriks, now of the Chicago White Sox, or Milwaukee Brewers left-hander Josh Hader as fantasy's top reliever. Then again, we have seen the worst of him, too.
Rosenthal, who has missed some Spring Training time with a strained groin, signed a one-year contract with the Athletics, ostensibly to replace Hendriks. It seems to be a perfect situation to thrive, with a very good team, in a large ballpark, with a clear role set. Oh sure, lefty Jake Diekman and right-hander Sergio Romo both loom in case something goes awry, but Rosenthal dominated last season. The Kansas City Royals took a chance, enjoyed great numbers and cashed in with a trade to the contending San Diego Padres. Rosenthal tossed 10 scoreless innings for the Padres, allowing just three hits and one walk. He fanned 17.
I would argue that Rosenthal does not belong outside the top-10 relievers in ESPN ADP, for we saw his upside last season -- and, to be clear, it is awesome. I was ranking Rosenthal slightly after Houston Astros right-hander Ryan Pressly and Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Kirby Yates, and further behind New York Mets right-hander Edwin Diaz and Los Angeles Angels right-hander Raisel Iglesias, but why? Rosenthal has as much upside as Diaz, which is to say he could be fantasy's top closer. They are all risky for sure. Iglesias feels like the safest, with success and durability for five consecutive seasons. Yates is coming off an injury. Pressly was just OK in 2020, his first season closing.
The point is, if we tried to figure out who reasonably may be fantasy's top relief pitcher in 2021, I do not pick Hand, Colome or Pressly. Hendriks and Hader are the easy choices, but there is no value in their current ADP. Rosenthal and Diaz make sense as upside picks -- far from safe, but oozing with potential. Cardinals right-hander Jordan Hicks boasts this upside, as does Cleveland right-hander James Karinchak. Seattle's Rafael Montero lacks both upside and safety, but could easily save more games. Picking relief pitchers in fantasy this season is so much guesswork.
Hicks and his teammate Giovanny Gallegos were the focus of the most recent Closer Report, and Hicks is not the value pick there. Here are five other relief pitchers who could be tremendous value picks -- if performance and opportunity collide perfectly. It happened for Rosenthal, who was way off the draft board a season ago. It can happen for anyone.
A.J. Minter, Atlanta Braves: We think fellow left-hander Will Smith handles closing duties here, but he had a bit of a home run problem in 2020 with seven allowed. He permitted another 10 of them for the San Francisco Giants in 2019. That seems like a trend to me. Right-hander Chris Martin had the flashy numbers last season, but was fortunate to get them thanks to a .171 BABIP. Enter Minter, the former closer who bounced back with a terrific 2020 campaign. He throws hard and can handle right-handed hitters.
Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland: Most assume that Karinchak will handle the closing role after the team parted with Hand, but Clase (the headliner in the Corey Kluber trade with the Texas Rangers) is just as intriguing. Clase hits 100 MPH with a nasty cutter and an effective slider. He also boasts a minor league record of suppressing home runs. As for strikeouts, he is a bit like Hicks. He has so much velocity, but rather average whiff rates -- at least so far. Still, Karinchak walks people. Myriad people. Watch out.
Matt Wisler, San Francisco Giants: Sorry, but I just have a hard time believing left-hander Jake McGee is safe for saves. McGee was fantastic for last season's Los Angeles Dodgers, but we cannot simply forget about his erratic work for the Colorado Rockies -- or his injury history, for that matter -- simply because of Coors Field. Wisler also revived his career in 2020, posting big numbers for the Minnesota Twins, and I doubt his unconventional manager (Gabe Kapler) cares that his signature pitch is a wipeout slider and not a dominating fastball. I predict Wisler earns double-digit saves this season.
Peter Fairbanks, Tampa Bay Rays: With everyone except for Esteban Yan saving games for this club in 2020, one might wonder why they should invest in a Rays reliever. Well, Nick Anderson is top 10 in ADP at the position, and Fairbanks is nowhere on the list. Despite our saves projection of Anderson handling most of the ninth-inning work (which goes against what occurred in 2020), I view Anderson and Fairbanks as being largely interchangeable -- big strikeout fellows who should garner some, but not all the saves. It seems to me Anderson is overrated in fantasy, while Fairbanks is underrated.
Tanner Scott, Baltimore Orioles: Why not an Oriole? They are still a big-league baseball team, right? Maybe not a good one, but Scott, should he consistently throw strikes, stands a chance to handle the bulk of the save chances while missing more bats than he did in his successful 2020 season. Stop drafting injured Hunter Harvey and ignoring Scott, who is somehow rostered in a mere 0.5% of ESPN standard leagues!
Others to watch: Victor Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers; Jason Adam, Chicago Cubs; Austin Adams, San Diego Padres; Tanner Rainey, Washington Nationals; Jordan Romano, Toronto Blue Jays; Joely Rodriguez, Texas Rangers; Justin Topa, Milwaukee Brewers
