It's been two whole years since we've had April baseball, and it's so, so good to be back.
In past years, Opening Day has typically been a short slate with only a few games on the schedule. That's not the case this time around. On Thursday, we were supposed to be treated to a full slate of games, with all 30 teams suiting up. Unfortunately, rain has claimed the Baltimore-Boston game, and the Mets' visit to Washington has been put on hold due to COVID-19 concerns. Still, 13 games is a welcome treat.
First, a quick primer for those who are new to Daily Notes. In ESPN's standard game, streaming starting pitchers has become a popular -- and perhaps even necessary -- practice if you want to compete. The same goes for streaming hitters in leagues with daily roster moves. It can be crucial for fantasy managers to play the matchups and maximize their starting lineups by inserting waiver-wire arms and bats when their core players have days off.
Streaming, or picking up players who are starting that day to maximize volume, can be a daily grind that takes a lot of work and commitment over a full 162-game season. We're here to help. Whether it's finding a platoon bat with a juicy matchup or simply giving you the confidence to activate that hurler you have sitting on your bench, we'll highlight the day's most intriguing streaming options, focusing on players rostered in fewer than 50% of leagues.
Because of the nature of Opening Day and every team throwing their No. 1 starter, it's not a great day for streaming pitchers. There are only a handful or so that fall below the 50% rostered threshold. Still, even on the first day of the season, getting an extra win or a few extra Ks can make a difference, especially in head-to-head leagues, so it's never too early to get into the streaming game.
With that, let's get to it. Here's a look at the Opening Day slate:
Matthew Boyd (L), rostered in 28% of ESPN leagues, Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland: Boyd failed to meet expectations last season, as his 6.71 ERA attests. His strikeout rate declined, and his troublesome home-run rate continued to climb to 2.24 HR/9, which ranked worst in baseball. More concerning, however, was that Boyd's once-dominate slider was much more hittable, surrendering a .378 wOBA (compared to .244 in 2019). The good news is that the left-hander has looked better this spring, posting a 2.45 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 18 1/3 innings. He's also been working on more consistently implementing his changeup, a pitch that generated Boyd's highest whiff rate in 2020. While Boyd obviously carries some volatility into Thursday's content against Cleveland, the Indians were well below average against lefties last season and are now without Francisco Lindor, so the matchup is favorable on paper. This is as good a time as any to see if Boyd can reclaim some of the strikeout upside he displayed in 2019, when he fanned 11.6 batters per nine.
Kyle Gibson (R), 6%, Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals: With the Red Sox-Orioles opener postponed until Friday, a slate already lacking streaming options is even thinner. Depending on your head-to-head matchup, it may be best to simply play it safe and save the streaming for another day. If you're feeling frisky, however, Gibson added a cutter in the offseason, and it looked good in Cactus League play. The Royals made some moves to improve their offense, but top-to-bottom, it is still a below-average lineup.
Chad Kuhl (R), 1%, Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs: OK, now we're digging deep. Kuhl missed 2019 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. As is often the case the first year back, Kuhl's control was poor last season as he posted a career high 14% walk rate, all but mitigating a personal-best 22% strikeout clip. The Cubs lineup is a wild card as three of their best hitters are coming off subpar seasons with Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant all looking to rebound. The chief reason to consider Kuhl is the temperature in the Windy City will be in the mid-thirties, giving a big edge to pitchers.
Brad Keller (R), 10%, Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: Keller doesn't possess an overly exciting profile, as his pitch arsenal is more geared toward inducing weak contact than getting swings and misses. Even so, it's a relatively safe profile, given Keller's ability to keep the ball in the park and Kauffman Stadium's pitcher-friendly tendencies. The right-hander was the beneficiary of some good fortune in 2020, so don't expect a repeat of last season's 2.47 ERA or 1.02 WHIP, but he's still a perfectly competent streaming option in home starts against weak opponents. And that's what we have on Thursday with Keller's matchup versus Texas. The Rangers had the worst offense in the American League last year, putting up a 76 wRC+, and they look like a below average offense again this season.
Bullpen:
Even with Opening Day upon us, plenty of closer situations are still unsettled. As a result, there will be lots of opportunities in the first week or so to scoop saves up off the waiver wire. Better yet, there are multiple relievers who have already been handed the closer job who are still widely available. The Marlins have tabbed Anthony Bass as their ninth-inning man, yet he's available in 80% of ESPN leagues. Rostering a Colorado closer isn't for those with a weak stomach, but Daniel Bard has the job and is a free agent in 72% of leagues. Beyond those two, there are countless other names that could rack up saves, including Jake McGee (available in 66% of leagues), Amir Garrett (67%), Emilio Pagan (76%), and Nick Wittgren (94%). So if you need saves, they are available.
For the latest team-by-team closer situations, please consult our Closer Chart.
Starting Pitcher Projected Game Scores for April 1GSTeamNAMETOPPW-LERAWHIP66Tyler GlasnowR@MIA5-14.081.1365Gerrit ColeRTOR7-32.840.9664Shane BieberR@DET8-11.630.8762Brandon WoodruffRMIN3-53.050.9961Yu DarvishRARI8-32.010.9660Kenta MaedaR@MIL6-12.700.7560Jack FlahertyR@CIN4-34.911.2158Luis CastilloRSTL4-63.211.2358Clayton KershawL@COL6-22.160.8456Kevin GausmanR@SEA3-33.621.1155Lucas GiolitoR@LAA4-33.481.0454Zack GreinkeR@OAK3-34.031.1354Aaron NolaRATL5-53.281.0854Hyun-Jin RyuL@NYY5-22.691.1554Kyle HendricksRPIT6-52.881.0053Sandy AlcantaraRTB3-23.001.1953Dylan BundyRCWS6-33.291.0453Brad KellerRTEX5-32.471.0252Matthew BoydLCLE3-76.711.4852Max FriedL@PHI7-02.251.0951Kyle GibsonR@KC2-65.351.5350Marco GonzalesLSF7-23.100.9550Chris BassittRHOU5-22.291.1650Madison BumgarnerL@SD1-46.481.4450Chad KuhlR@CHC2-34.271.3648German MarquezRLAD4-63.751.26
Catcher -- Victor Caratini (S), 1%, San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (LHP Madison Bumgarner): With Austin Nola sidelined, Caratini will open the season as the Padres' starting catcher. While Caratini helps San Diego pitchers with his strong framing skills, he's no slouch with the stick, as he possesses strong plate skills and showed some solid pop with 11 homers in 244 at-bats in 2019. The switch-hitting backstop will get the platoon edge against Bumgarner, who struggled against righty batters last season (.404 wOBA).
First Base -- Josh Fuentes (R), 1%, Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (LHP Clayton Kershaw): With Brendan Rodgers sidelined, Fuentes is getting the chance to start at third base. He raked this spring, collecting 10 extra-base hits in 57 at-bats, and he'll have the platoon advantage on Thursday. Kershaw has been dominant in eight career Opening Day starts, but Coors Field is still Coors Field, so don't overthink it.
Second Base -- Ty France (R), 21%, Seattle Mariners vs. San Francisco Giants (RHP Kevin Gausman): France made a strong impression in Spring Training, batting .327/.421/.714 with five homers and a 5:7 BB/K ratio in 57 plate appearances, and he's set to play every day for the Mariners, with most of his playing time coming at DH. Hitting in the heart of what could be an underrated Mariners lineup, France could be a sneaky asset on Thursday.
Third Base -- Andres Gimenez (L), 50%, Cleveland at Detroit Tigers (LHP Matthew Boyd): It's rare that a left-on-left matchup is featured in this space, but Gimenez has been named as Cleveland's starting shortstop and Boyd has a proclivity for allowing baserunners. Further, Wilson Ramos is now the Tigers backstop, so get used to targeting opposing speedsters when looking for a stolen base or two. Gimenez possesses 94th-percentile sprint speed and was 8-for-9 attempting steals in his rookie campaign.
Shortstop -- Elvis Andrus (R), 26%, Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros (RHP Zack Greinke): Andrus feels somewhat forgotten after a poor 2020, but he popped 12 homers and swiped 31 bags in 2019, so we can't write him off yet. The 32-year-old petitioned the rest of the A's to steal more bases this season, so it wouldn't a surprise if he was off and running on Thursday.
Corner Infield -- David Bote (R), 2%, Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (RHP Chad Kuhl): While many fans were frustrated when the Cubs sent down Nico Hoerner for service-time reasons, Bote certainly did enough to earn the Cubs' second-base job this spring, hitting .311/.367/.622 with three homers in 45 at-bats. A quick peek at Bote's 2020 batted-ball profile shows an exit velocity in the 91st percentile and a hard-hit rate in the 95th percentile, so there may be something here. He squares off against one of Thursday's lesser hurlers.
Middle Infield -- Kolten Wong (L), 48%, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins (RHP Kenta Maeda): Wong looks like the perfect fit in Milwaukee. Given his strong on-base skills, he's set to bat leadoff ahead of Christian Yelich and Co., he has the wheels to steal 20-plus bases, and American Family Field is an ideal park for his left-handed power. Wong's rostered percentage is due to rise very soon.
Outfield -- Austin Slater (R), 1%, San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners (LHP Marco Gonzales): Slater put up a .914 OPS in a 31-game sample in 2020, and his bat stayed hot this spring, with a .360/.448/.880 triple slash with four homers and two steals in 25 at-bats. The 28-year-old is in line to platoon with Alex Dickerson in left field, so he'll get the nod on Thursday with a lefty on the mound. Slater is name to tuck away in the event that he finds himself getting regular playing time later in the season.
Outfield -- Myles Straw (R), 10%, Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics (RHP Chris Bassitt): This is a pure speed play. According to Baseball Savant, Straw's Sprint Speed score ranked in the 99th percentile in 2019 and in the 91st percentile last season. If your head-to-head roster is light on speed and you're worried about falling behind in steals, Straw can help level the playing field.
Outfield -- David Dahl (L), 4%, Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals (RHP Brad Keller): Dahl will certainly miss hitting in Coors Field, but he's healthy now (which often isn't the case) and is poised to hit near the top of the Rangers' batting order against righties. He's coming off a torrid spring that saw him hit .389/.452/.583 over 36 at-bats, and he sports a .289/.342/.515 slash line against right-handed pitching in his career, putting him in a fine spot against Keller.
