With the season drawing to a close this week in most dynasty leagues, it's time to look back at my sage wisdom at the start of the season from Weeks 1-4. I hope this year went well for you. And who better to grade myself than... myself! It is possible for my biases to shift over the year, so I'll try to not pull any punches when I was wrong and curve the grade down when I made what probably was a relatively safe call.
Week 1: Isaiah Likely (buy), Jeff Wilson Jr. (buy), David Montgomery (sell)This article was written ahead of Week 1 and things generally broke in my favor here even before the games began being played. Likely had built up some preseason steam and while he was far from reliable or consistent this year, rookie tight ends rarely are. There's still a mountain of upside in Baltimore given the inconsistencies among the receiver group beyond Rashod Bateman, who couldn't stay healthy this year. Grade: B-Wilson jumped right in once Elijah Mitchell went down. Although the 49ers traded him away to the Dolphins, he's been productive there. Will that carry over to success in 2023? Probably not, as he's looking at a split role at best, if he's retained. Grade: A+Montgomery has had an underwhelming 2022 season. You can certainly count on him for about 16-20 touches every week with middling yardage totals and a sporadic touchdown. Honestly, if you were expecting much more, that's your own fault. Volume keeps him relevant as an RB2, but not his talent. Who'd you rather have right now, Montgomery or Khalil Herbert? I hope your answer is Herbert, even though he missed about a month's worth of games due to injury. Monty will be an unrestricted free agent, that is if the Bears don't exercise his fifth-year option and an extension seems unlikely given the state of the position. A looming 2023 with more questions than answers doesn't strike me as a situation you want. Grade: B
Week 2: Saquon Barkley (hold), Cam Akers (buy), Dameon Pierce (buy)This write-up was intended to say don't sell high after one big game. Hindsight is 20/20, but this was a good call. Maybe you didn't sell high but I can guarantee some did. Barkley did kind of slow down here and there, but his receiving totals buoy what has been a very impressive year. Grade: A-There's no bigger cheerleader for Cam Akers than myself. And while nothing has gone right for the Rams, I do feel redeemed that Akers finally broke out in Week 16 against the Broncos with 147 total yards and three touchdowns. Over his last four games, he has six scores and he's the RB5 in PPR. Does that make up for what has been a bad year? Probably not if you bought him when this article was published. Assuming you still have Akers rostered, you feel better now than you did then. I never believed Darrell Henderson was any threat to Akers's talent. So I was technically right, the best kind of right. Without his recent bounce-back, this grade would be an F. Grade: CAfter Week 1, some were cooling on Pierce because he only had 33 yards on 11 carries. But there were plenty of skeptics who needed to see more in the regular season. In these last three months, Pierce's value climbed through the fall and has mellowed as of late. There's no doubt to me that Pierce would produce much better in any other offense. So even now, I believe his value is suppressed. A new head coach next year would do wonders to his performance. Grade: B+
Week 3: Tom Brady (hold/sell), CeeDee Lamb (hold), Trey Lance (hold/sell)The 2022 season wasn't kind to the GOAT. I recommended a tepid hold with the idea of selling him in superflex, as that's where you could get the most trade value for him. This was met with a chorus of boos on Reddit's r/DynastyFF. In the end, the Bucs look like crap and eking it out just for the outside shot at the playoffs. Brady is the QB14 and he's averaging 15.71 points per game, less than Marcus Mariota. Nuff said. Grade: A-After two poor starts where Lamb finished as the WR76 and WR24, there were definite rumblings and whispers about him. I would appreciate a little more consistency from Dallas' No. 1 WR, but he had a number of big games. He's been a top-12 receiver six times in his last 13 contests, including two WR1 finishes. Most of the pressure at this stage of the season was from other big-time receivers having great games while Lamb struggled. Now he's the WR7 and that's right about where he was going in startup drafts. Grade: B+Lance went down in Week 2 and while that may have felt like a buying opportunity, I didn't believe it to be. Things are only more complicated now with Jimmy Garoppolo deftly keeping things together after Lance went down. And with the emergence of Brock Purdy, we have a bonafide quarterback controversy heading into 2023. However, what if Purdy leads this team to a Super Bowl title? It could happen! And that kind of result would destroy Lance's trade value. I didn't really commit to holding or selling him in this write-up, though, but some may have bought in to take advantage of panicked managers. That's something I didn't recommend, so I'll grade myself mostly favorably. Grade: B-
Week 4: Chris Olave (buy/hold), Mack Hollins (sell), Rashod Bateman (hold/sell)Olave popped off in Week 3 and followed it up with top-20 WR finishes in his next three games. He was running away with the offensive rookie of the year by mid-season. He was popping off with big catches and big point totals. That didn't really last as the Saints' 2022 mostly went off the rails. He hasn't had more than 10 targets since Week 7. He hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 11. I mostly blame New Orleans and its trifling offense. Olave is the WR24 right now and he probably won't do much in the remaining games thanks to a hamstring injury. Any kind of improvement at quarterback would be a huge boost moving forward. Grade: BMack Hollins also had a huge Week 3 with eight catches for 158 yards and a score. More of a redraft fill-in, Hollins is no spring chicken. At 29 years old, I wanted to get ahead of any possible dynasty hype with this write-up. Hollins has been a top-20 WR twice in the contests since and he's the WR39. But I chalk that up to staying healthy and being a steady presence behind Davante Adams on the depth chart. If you bought in on Hollins as anything more than a waiver wire add at the time, reevaluate your game. Grade: B+Man, I took a mountain of grief for judging Rashod Bateman harshly. People just don't seem to understand the Ravens' offense. This isn't a team that is reliably passing the ball on short-to-intermediate routes. Lamar Jackson is looking downfield and going big all the time. No harm in it and it's fun to watch. But it's not conducive for fantasy football. That resulted in Bateman hitting on a few big plays in the early weeks of the 2022 season. I said at the time it was unsustainable. And before he got hurt, it was already playing out that way. Jackson will never support a dependable wide receiver. Period. The offense is looking for big chunky plays and that's like thinking wins are an important stat for pitchers in fantasy baseball—they're not. Through two games, Bateman had six catches on 12 targets for 167 yards and two touchdowns—that's nearly 29 yards per catch! Bruh, not sustainable. The next three games before he got hurt were 2/59, 3/17 and 4/42. Meh. Bateman is great, no question and he's their best receiver by a mile This offense just doesn't play football in a way that produces steady WR production. Best ball? Go for it. Dynasty? Hard pass. And I compared him to DeSean Jackson because that's how the Ravens were using him. Caught tons of eye rolls for that comp. Who did the Ravens sign after Bateman got hurt? F'n DeSean Jackson. Miss me with your comments. Grade: A+
