A significant position battle this spring for the Chicago Cubs appears to have been settled, at least for now. Earlier this week it looked as though the Cubs would have a decision to make at second base between David Bote and Nico Hoerner with Eric Sogard in the mix as well.

According to multiple reports Friday, Hoerner will begin the 2021 season in the minor leagues. ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Jesse Rogers first reported the move late Friday, but the team has not yet made it official.

This spring, many evaluators saw Hoerner as the best second baseman in Cubs camp, but he will head to the minors and non-roster invitee Eric Sogard looks like he will make the major league roster instead.

There is, of course, the open speculation that the Cubs are making this move merely to manipulate Hoerner’s service time — 36 days in the minor leagues will give them an extra year of control — and especially in light of the Cubs history with Kris Bryant in 2015 and the Mariners optioning Jarred Kelenic this week, service time manipulation might look like a legitimate explanation for this move.

But what is probably more likely is that this was a decision with many layers.

Even though Hoerner has posted a 1.052 OPS this spring, he has cooled off at the plate lately, and his numbers this spring are somewhat skewed by a very hot start at the beginning of March. Hoerner also has just over 200 minor league plate appearances under his belt and struggled at the plate in many ways last season, so having him start the year in the minors makes sense from that perspective.

Hoerner was a first round pick out of Stanford in 2018, but an elbow injury cut his season short that year, and in 2019 he hurt his wrist and had to sit out for a month. When Hoerner was called up in September 2019, the Cubs were injury-ridden and trying to hold on to slim playoff chances. Under normal circumstances, namely an injury to Javier Baez, Hoerner probably wouldn’t have been called up that year.

In that first month in the majors, Hoerner hit pretty well, good enough for a .282 batting average and three home runs. But least season, his batting average dropped by sixty points, and his strikeout rate went from 13.4% in 2019 to 19% last year. As a team, the Cubs had the fourth-highest strikeout rate in baseball in 2020.

One area of Hoerner’s game that doesn’t need seasoning in the minors is his defense; he was a Gold Glove candidate in 2020.

Despite Hoerner’s mostly sturdy play in the majors, the Cubs have not shied away from optioning key players in the past. Kyle Schwarber spent a couple of weeks in Triple-A Iowa in 2017, and two years ago Ian Happ was optioned before Opening Day and didn’t return to the Cubs until late July that year. And in Happ’s case, he was optioned despite having accrued almost 900 plate appearances in the majors in 2017 and 2018.

Hoerner probably also had the cards somewhat stacked against him because of who he was competing against for a spot. Bote making the roster was essentially a given. He was extended in 2019 and looks to be with the Cubs through at least 2024 with club options for 2025 and 2026. Bote has hit well this spring and has been an important piece for the Cubs since 2018. Sogard was a non-roster invitee, but had the Cubs chosen to designate him for assignment instead of optioning Hoerner, it is likely that they would have lost him altogether. Though he has hit well this spring, Sogard is coming off of a .560 OPS season. The Cubs are probably banking on a bit of a rebound at the plate and the benefit of Sogard’s defense.

Ultimately, Bote will be the primary starter at second base for the Cubs, and when the time comes for Hoerner to return to Chicago, the Cubs will have to decide the best course for what to do with Sogard. For now, Hoerner will get his first regular season at-bats in Triple-A Des Moines.